davidc Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Been doing some research with regard to -1 Asian Handicaps and have come up with a system to (hopefully) make some money! I have checked back through over 2600 games from various major leagues around Europe from last season and the current season and my figures suggest that there were approximately 450 of these which may have qualified as -1 AH by using the 1X2 odds range of 1.75 - 1.51 as a basis. I realise that this is not totally scientific and that some of these bets may not have qualified but I have broken the odds down into three different ranges (1.75-1.56, 1.75-1.51 and 1.7-1.56) and the outcome remains similar, within a 3% tolerance. The odds I used were taken from betexplorer. These results gave the following percentages in which the tie is ignored as it produces a no bet scenario: For home 1X2 prices 1.75 - 1.56 HC Loss HC Tie HC Win 130 (59.63%) 65 88 (40.37%) For away 1X2 prices 1.75 - 1.51 HC Loss HC Tie HC Win 23 (37.7%) 19 38 (62.3%) The price ranges above gave the best results and it is these ranges that I intend to use. I realise that the away figures in particular have a relatively small sample size but as this is over a period of around 14 months then it is probably valid. The system therefore will be: For home teams with 1X2 odds 1.75 - 1.56 lay AH -1 for odds lower than 2.21 or back +1 at odds better than 1.8 @ Betfair. For away teams with 1X2 odds 1.75 -1.51 back AH -1 for odds higher than 1.69 or Lay +1 for odds lower than 2.38 @ Betfair. The starting bank will be 1000 points and all bets will be 5 points risk. Most bets will be with Betfair and any prices which I quote will already have commission deducted. The bets will be on major leagues in Europe initially but may be expanded at a later date to include other leagues. Internationals will be ignored by this system. I will be using real money but would advise that anybody following this thread use discretion until there is sufficient history to (hopefully!) prove the theory. Comments and suggestions would be welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 6, 2006 Author Share Posted October 6, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Just to clarify details from the first post -chamges highlighted in red new details in blue: For home teams with 1X2 odds 1.75 - 1.56 lay AH -1 for odds lower than 2.21 or back away team +1 at odds better than 1.8 @ Betfair. For away teams with 1X2 odds 1.75 -1.51 back AH -1 for odds higher than 1.69 or Lay home team +1 for odds lower than 2.38 @ Betfair. I will mostly be looking to back (rather than lay) as its probably easier in that some of the odds will be available at bookies and it means that you are not waiting until the last minute to have a 'lay' matched at an exchange. The formatting in the 1st post did not come out too well so I've re-done the percentages and hopefully they are a bit clearer - the tie is ignored for these percentages as it produces a no bet scenario. For home 1X2 prices 1.75 - 1.56 Handicap loss: 130 = 59.63% Handicap tie: 65 Handicap win: 88 = 40.37% For away 1X2 prices 1.75 - 1.51 Handicap loss: 23 = 37.7% Handicap tie: 19 Handicap win: 38 = 62.3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 6, 2006 Author Share Posted October 6, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System First bets, all 5 points: Waterford v Shelbourne - Back Shelbourne -1 @ 1.84 @ Betfair Dagenham & Redbridge v Northwich Victoria - Back Northwich +1 @ 1.86 @ Betdaq Go Ahead Eagles v FC Eindhoven - Back Eindhoven +1 @ 1.81 @ Betdaq Elgin v East Fife - Back East Fife -1 @ 1.99 @ Pinnacle Bryne v Tromsdalen - Back Tromsdalen +1 @ 1.94 @ Pinnacle Genoa v Arezzo - Back Arezzo +1 @ 1.79 @ Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted October 6, 2006 Share Posted October 6, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Good look with this david. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted October 6, 2006 Share Posted October 6, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System I'm interested in asian handicap betting, so you've got my attention! Good luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 6, 2006 Author Share Posted October 6, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Thanks, guys. :hope One further point: Only bets which I actually place will qualify for the system. The reason for this is that there may be some teams which qualify but if I have already had a bet on the opponent then the team will not be included in the results. This scenario has already happened as there is another qualifier tonight (Yeovil v Cheltenham - where we would need to back against Yeovil) but as I already have a fairly large bet on Yeovil it won't be included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 7, 2006 Author Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Another qualifier: Sporting Gijon v Vecindario - Lay Sporting Gijon -1 @ 2.05 @ Betfair Updated results and stats after the weekends bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Another qualifier: Sporting Gijon v Vecindario - Lay Sporting Gijon -1 @ 2.05 @ Betfair Updated results and stats after the weekends bets. Looking forward to them.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 7, 2006 Author Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Not looking too good so far, David! Another qualifier tonight - kicks-off @ 01:30. Chicago Fire v Columbus Crew - Back Columbus Crew +1 @ 1.82 @ Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 8, 2006 Author Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System 2 more for today. Delemont v Kriens - Back Kriens -1 @ 1.98 @ Pinnacle Lausanne Sports v Locarno - Back Locarno +1 @ 1.97 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 8, 2006 Author Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Results and stats so far: Waterford v Shelbourne - Back Shelbourne -1 @ 1.84 @ Betfair VOID Dagenham & Redbridge v Northwich Victoria - Back Northwich +1 @ 1.86 @ Betdaq LOST Go Ahead Eagles v FC Eindhoven - Back Eindhoven +1 @ 1.81 @ Betdaq LOST Elgin v East Fife - Back East Fife -1 @ 1.99 @ Pinnacle VOID Bryne v Tromsdalen - Back Tromsdalen +1 @ 1.94 @ Pinnacle WON Genoa v Arezzo - Back Arezzo +1 @ 1.79 @ Betfair LOST Sporting Gijon v Vecindario - Lay Sporting Gijon -1 @ 2.05 @ Betfair VOID Chicago Fire v Columbus Crew - Back Columbus Crew +1 @ 1.82 @ Betfair WON Delemont v Kriens - Back Kriens -1 @ 1.98 @ Pinnacle VOID Lausanne Sports v Locarno - Back Locarno +1 @ 1.97 @ Pinnacle VOID BTW: Starting bank should have read 100 points Stats: Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 93.8 Total staked: 50 Number of bets: 10 Winning bets:2 Losing bets: 3 Voided bets: 5 Strike rate: 40% Yield: -12.4% Loss: -6.2 Not the best starts for a system but early days, :hope for better results to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 15, 2006 Author Share Posted October 15, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Been having a rethink about this system over the last couple of days and have come to the conclusion that I can't continue with the home lay portion as it clashes with another (profitable) home win strategy which I use. I do believe that the home lay has potential and could be profitable but from now on I will only be using the back the away segment and I will continue posting and betting on selections which meet the required criteria. So this is an updated version of the system rules: For away teams with 1X2 odds 1.75 -1.51 back AH -1 for odds higher than 1.69 or Lay home team +1 for odds lower than 2.38 @ Betfair. Any prices which I quote from exchanges will already have commission deducted. I will mostly be looking to back (rather than lay) as its probably easier in that some of the odds will be available at bookies and it means that you are not waiting until the last minute to have a 'lay' matched at an exchange. The bets will be on major leagues in worldwide. Internationals will be ignored by this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 15, 2006 Author Share Posted October 15, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System 2 bets for today: Amadora v Sporting Lisbon - Back Sporting Liisbon -1 @ 1.88 @ Pinnacle Schaffhausen v Basel - Back Basel -1 @ 2.01 @ Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bignedkelly Posted October 15, 2006 Share Posted October 15, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System hi there sorry if this aint the right place to post this but i couldnt find a thread to suit. i would like some advice on laying off an accumulator i placed yesterday (3 results came up yesterday and im waiting on hearts game today) if theres anyone out there who could offer some advice i would very much appeciate it. cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 20, 2006 Author Share Posted October 20, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System One bet for tonight: UCD v Shelbourne - Back Shelbourne -1 @ 2.09 @ Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 21, 2006 Author Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System 6 more selections for the weekend. Erciyesspor v Galatasaray - Back Galatasaray -1 @ 2.03 @ Olympic Croatia v Dinamo Zagreb - Back Dinamo Zagreb - 1 @ 1.94 @ Pinnacle Vejle v Nordsjaelland - Back Nordsjaelland -1 @ 2.13 @ Betfair Reading v Arsenal - Back Arsenal - 1 @ 2.32 @ Olympic Torpedo Moscow v Spartak Moscow - Back Spartak Moscow -1 @ 2.09 @ Betfair PRICE REQUESTED @ Betfair St Mirren v Rangers - Back Rangers -1 @ 2.09 @ Pinnacle Updated results and stats will be posted after the weekends bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 21, 2006 Author Share Posted October 21, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System One of the above bets has the wrong team typed in by mistake; the correct selection is: Osijek v Dinamo Zagreb - Back Dinamo Zagreb - 1 @ 1.94 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 22, 2006 Author Share Posted October 22, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Update: Torpedo Moscow v Spartak Moscow - Back Spartak Moscow -1 @ 2.09 @ Betfair PRICE MATCHED Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 23, 2006 Author Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Updated results and stats: Torpedo Moscow v Spartak Moscow - Back Spartak Moscow -1 @ 2.09 @ Betfair LOST Osijek v Dinamo Zagreb - Back Dinamo Zagreb - 1 @ 1.94 @ Pinnacle WON Erciyesspor v Galatasaray - Back Galatasaray -1 @ 2.03 @ Olympic VOID Vejle v Nordsjaelland - Back Nordsjaelland -1 @ 2.13 @ Betfair LOST Reading v Arsenal - Back Arsenal - 1 @ 2.32 @ Olympic WON St Mirren v Rangers - Back Rangers -1 @ 2.09 @ Pinnacle VOID UCD v Shelbourne - Back Shelbourne -1 @ 2.09 @ Betfair WON Amadora v Sporting Lisbon - Back Sporting Liisbon -1 @ 1.88 @ Pinnacle VOID Schaffhausen v Basel - Back Basel -1 @ 2.01 @ Betfair LOST Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 93.55 Total staked: 95 Number of bets: 19 Winning bets:5 Losing bets: 6 Voided bets: 8 Strike rate: 45.5% Yield: -6.79% Loss: -6.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 24, 2006 Author Share Posted October 24, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System One bet for tommorow night: Chievo v AC Milan - Back AC Milan -1 @ 2.3 @ Pinnacle I did this bet yesterday and Pinnacle's line has changed to -.75. Bet365 have 2.22 and Ladbrokes have 2.14 for the -1 handicap. Betfair hae a small amount @ 2.26 before 1% commission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 25, 2006 Author Share Posted October 25, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System One bet for tomorrow (Thursday) night: Willem II v AZ Alkmaar - Back AZ Alkmaar -1 @ 1.86 @ Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 27, 2006 Author Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System One bet for tonight: Mainz v Werder Bremen - Back Werder Bremen -1 @ 2.18 @ Pinnacle This line has changed since I placed my bet but Betfair have 2.15 available. Updated results and stats after the weekends bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 28, 2006 Author Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Two more matches for today: Elgin v Stenhousmuir - Back Stenhousmuir -1 @ 2.13 @ Pinnacle Alloa V Morton - Back Morton -1 @ 1.92 @ Pinnacle Aplologies for the lateness of the post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 30, 2006 Author Share Posted October 30, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Updated results and stats: Chievo v AC Milan - Back AC Milan -1 @ 2.3 @ Pinnacle VOID Willem II v AZ Alkmaar - Back AZ Alkmaar -1 @ 1.86 @ Betfair WON Mainz v Werder Bremen - Back Werder Bremen -1 @ 2.18 @ Pinnacle WON Elgin v Stenhousmuir - Back Stenhousmuir -1 @ 2.13 @ Pinnacle LOST Alloa V Morton - Back Morton -1 @ 1.92 @ Pinnacle LOST Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 93.75 Total staked: 120 Number of bets: 24 Winning bets:7 Losing bets: 8 Voided bets: 9 Strike rate: 46.7% Yield: -5.21% Loss: -6.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted November 2, 2006 Author Share Posted November 2, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System One bet for tomorrow (Friday) night: Monaghan Utd v Dundalk - Back Dundalk -1 @ 1.86 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted November 4, 2006 Author Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Five more qualifiers for this weekend. Updated results and stats to follow: Rennes v Lyon - Back Lyon -1 @ 2.09 @ Pinnacle New Zealand Knights v Queensland Roar - Back Queensland Roar -1 @ 1.84 @ Pinnacle Vejle v OB Odense - Back OB Odense -1 @ 2.15 @ Stan James West Ham v Arsenal - Back Arsenal -1 @ 2.14 @ Betfair Tottenham v Chelsea - Back Chelsea -1 @ 2.38 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted November 6, 2006 Author Share Posted November 6, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System One bet for tonight: Setubal v Porto - Back Porto -1 @ 1.8 @ Stan James Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted November 9, 2006 Author Share Posted November 9, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Some bad results over the last few days leave the stats looking very poor. Monaghan Utd v Dundalk - Back Dundalk -1 @ 1.86 @ Pinnacle LOST Rennes v Lyon - Back Lyon -1 @ 2.09 @ Pinnacle LOST New Zealand Knights v Queensland Roar - Back Queensland Roar -1 @ 1.84 @ Pinnacle LOST Vejle v OB Odense - Back OB Odense -1 @ 2.15 @ Stan James VOID West Ham v Arsenal - Back Arsenal -1 @ 2.14 @ Betfair LOST Tottenham v Chelsea - Back Chelsea -1 @ 2.38 @ Pinnacle LOST Setubal v Porto - Back Porto -1 @ 1.8 @ Stan James WON Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 72.75 Total staked: 155 Number of bets: 31 Winning bets: 8 Losing bets: 13 Voided bets: 10 Strike rate: 38.1% Yield: -17.58% Loss: -27.25 Hopefully we'll get some better results this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted November 9, 2006 Author Share Posted November 9, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System One bet for tomorrow (Friday) night: Parndorf ESV v LASK Linz - Back LASK Linz -1 @ 1.97 @ Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted November 12, 2006 Author Share Posted November 12, 2006 Re: -1 Asian Handicap System Three bets for today: Waregem v Royal Antwerp - Back Royal Antwerp -1 @ 1.81 @ Pinnacle Ergotelis v Panathinaikos - Back Panathinaikos -1 @ 2.11 @ Olympic Parma v Inter - Back inter -1 @ 2.09 @ Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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