NFL Wk. 5...Already?!

[TazaD]

13-9-2 (+3.05) Miami @ NE under 37.5 League: 5-15-1 under (av. total 38.8...av. score 36.0) as a 7+ fav off a 21+ win as a 3+ dog. [NE] (the push was Balt 28-6 Oak this season @ 34) 1-9 under (av. total 37.8...av. score 33.1) if opp was last away. I think the total is inflated after last weeks 38 point performance by the Pats, but in reality it wasn't that impressive with 3 TD drives of less than 42 yards. But the key here is stopping the NE run. In their 3 wins (Av. score 27 ppg) they have played teams that allow over 4 y/c...even Denver have allowed 3.9 so far, but they stopped NE in their tracks, allowing just 50 yards on 21 attempts...and allowed just 7 points. Miami allow just 3.0 y/c (equal 3rd best in NFL) Brady just hasn't got the receiving corp this season to move the ball effectively through the air, imo. Of course, Miami just can't score, Av. just 12.8 ppg, and I can't really see them doing any better here. NE are 3-11 under as 7+ home favs since 2000, allowing just 13.9 ppg. Dallas @ Philli under 44 League: 5-13 under (Av. total 45.7...av. score 42.6) at home (any line**) off a 10+ ats win as home 10+ fav, if total >40.5 [Phil] (0-2 under last season. Phil 23-20 Oak @ 46, SD 21-23 Mia @ 45) 1-9 under (Av. total 45.5...av. score 39.1) if opp was last a fav. League: 9-20 under (Av. total 44.1...av. score 38.2) away (any line) off a 10+ ats win as away 3+ fav, if total >40.5 [Dal] (0-3 under last season. Indi 28-3 SF @ 46, Atl 6-24 Caro @ 43.5, Wash 17-13 Ariz @ 41) 2-9 under (Av. total 44.4...av. score 34.1!) if team is a 'dog this week. ** Line was -1 early in the week, though Dallas might nearly KO as favs, but unlikely now. As last week showed, I think the Philli D is being a bit underestimated when it comes to their totals. ** If you take out 2 quarters (the final quaters v. NYG and @ SF) they've allowed only 7, 10, 7 & 9 points in 14 quarters this season, and have the 2nd most sacks (behind Balt), so they will be pressuring Bledsoe all day long. I thinkk the total is also being affected by Dallas putting up 45 last week, but doing it in Philli will be just a bit tougher!! Both teams allow less than 3.7 y/r and 6 y/pass, so 2 strong defenses, I think we'll see a much tighter, lower scoring game than the total indicates. ** Philli are 2-12 under in their last 14 at home when the total is >42.5...allowing just 17 ppg, and have given up over 20 just twice. Jets @ Jax over 37 Jets are 4-0 over so far, and no reason why that won't continue with a lowish total here. While they may have been a little lucky with some special teams and defensive scores, they are still averaging 24 ppg and have been deadly in the red-zone with 13 TD's and just 2 FG's!! Pennington has been on fire, throwing for 8.32 y/p @ 67%, and he is getting the job done, despite no running game to speak of. They are, however, 4th last in total D (Houston, GB, Tenn) so there's no reason why Jax won't score big, coming off a 30 point performance last week. My numbers show at least 40, so I'll go with it. Oakland @ SF under 41 (2.00) Last time I looked, Oakland had Walter @ QB, the worst o-line in football and av. just 9 ppg...and 7 of those points came last week from a fumble recovery. Walter was 9/23 for 68 yards!!...and although on the surface the running game was good (182 yards in 23 runs!!)...107 of those yards came in 2 rushes (59 & 48), so it was just a touch over 3.5 y/c for the rest. All season, Oak have thrown for an incredible 3.02 y/p!!..and while the SF D might not be one of the best, it's their pass D which has been the problem, so I'm still not sure how Oakland get points! Surprisingly, the Raider D has actually been ok, allowing 3.8 y/r and 5.44 y/p, so if they can limit TO's and not give short field all day long, it's pretty tough to see too much scoring here. Pittsburgh @ SD under 37.5 What's with this total?! 2 of the best defenses in the NFL, I was expecting 34 at best. Both teams rely heavily on the run, and both teams stop it better than most...SD allow 3.3 y/c, Pits 3.2. Last week was the first time for the season that SD played an even half decent D and came up with 13 points. The last game Pits played was a 20-28 v. Cinci, but TD drives of 4 plays 7 yards, 1 play 9 yards and 1 play 30 yards put things into perspective. Roethlisberger has been terrible so far, completing just 49% for 4.92 yards and a rating of 34!!...It's not going to improve against a SD D that allows 4.04 y/pass! Balt +4 (2.01) League: 1-14-1 (av. LOSS 4.0) home fav of 7 or less, off a BYE if opp was last a fac of 3 or less. [Denver] (0-1 last season. Phil 20-17 SD @ -4) 0-8-1 (Av. LOSS 4.9) if opp won ats last game. For some reason the Ravens continue to be underrated. They are 4-0, and holding teams to just 8ppg...they have the best run D allowing jst 2.6 y/r and this is where the should get Denver in trouble. They will stuff the run and pressure Plummer all game (they have the most sacks for the year aswell) and force him to make throws, which will inevitably lead to mistakes. They lost by just 2 points in Denver last season as +15.5 'dogs!!...and that was with a -3 TO margin!! They also lost by just 1 as +11 dogs @ Pits on a Monday night last season...love them getting more than a FG here. :ok EDIT: I just got rid of the KC/'Zona under...Just have some nagging doubts. Lienart may well be more effective than Warner, and there shold have been at least 1 or 2 more TD's in the St. Louis/Cards game.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Wk. 5...Already?! .