Home Team Scores First

[Cheeryone]

Hi Everyone, Not posted anything for a looooong time so be gentle!!! I know you guys like systems and not pot luck bets, but this is something I noticed at the weekend and hoped some of you guys and gals could help out with your years of wisdom. I know Randall is posting something on the first Team to score, good luck on that by the way, but like i said this isn't a system. I was thinking that more home teams win than lose, but do they score first and if they do is it best to back the home team or lay the away team. If you took the English and Scottish prem all the way down to non league last saturday i think it came to around 55 games. Out of this, around 38 of those games the home team scored first or a 0-0 was the result meaning 38 wins out of 55 if you layed the away team on next goal. I mentioned this today to my good PL mate Daft Pegasus who laughed in my face.... but I am sure he went and backed Watford to score first soon after ;) Anyway I was thinking of paper betting this but thought i would ask the pro's on here what you think?

[aliando]

Re: Home Team Scores First definitely sounds like its worth paper trialling....

[gazabroad]

Re: Home Team Scores First This one is quite easy to back test and it sounds interesting. GL :ok

[TheKing]

Re: Home Team Scores First hhhhhhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmmmm, you might be onto something here mate.....

[daftpegasus]

Re: Home Team Scores First Based on those few stats (but as gazabroad states it easy to back test) you'd need to lay at average odds of 3.0 in order to make a profit. The only thing that couldn't be back tested easily is determining the odds you'd get for laying the away team to score first. Considering Fulham were at around 2.62 to be layed this implies there might be some value in it, but, this is a very small sample of data. You can currently lay Dag & Red to score the first goal at 1.99 in tonights game. But they're second in the league away at 17th. I think you'd need to apply some form of filter to the games you selected. What that filter is would be determined by paper testing.

[staffy]

Re: Home Team Scores First But surely D and R wont score tonight and the team they are playing will comfortably win 2 v 0 anyway and it will be a good bet.

[daftpegasus]

Re: Home Team Scores First

But surely D and R wont score tonight and the team they are playing will comfortably win 2 v 0 anyway and it will be a good bet.

Let's hope so:hope

[Cheeryone]

Re: Home Team Scores First Hello, Did anyone else notice how many home teams scored first in yesterdays international games, or more to the point how many away teams didn't? There was 22 games played in the Euro qualifiers with 14 homes teams taking the lead and 3 games ending 0-0 giving you 17 winning results out of 22 if you layed the away team to score first.

[London_Calling]

Re: Home Team Scores First Cutting to the quick, what did it cost to lay those 5 away teams ?

[Cheeryone]

Re: Home Team Scores First not sure London Calling as this is just something i have noticed :$ I am going to either lay or back for real on Wed when the Euro games are on again. I am just not sure which to try first. I will post what I do on wed before kick off. One game i was interested in was the Bulgaria game, with their record it was never going to be a walk over for the dutch and you could get over 4's for them to score first, which they did!!