Dodgy Home Favourites

[The Floorwalker]

I've been looking at devising a system which finds dodgy HOME favourites with a view to laying them. I have back tested the system over 20 games and the results are as follows : LWLLWWWWWWLWWWWWW That's 16 successful lays from 20 bets and the price to LAY is usually around evens or shorter. The strike rate is 80% but a strike rate of as low as 50% would be enough to show a profit due to the LAY prices. Starting Bank is £100 and I'm actually doing these on Betfair. That'll jinx it ! :unsure Since the strike rate is high I'm going to use an aggressive staking plan to hopefully maximise profits. The staking plan is to bet 20% of the bank. If there is more than one LAY on any day, an extra 5% is added to the stake and divided equally on the LAYs. Tuesday 26th September (2 LAYS so stakes are 25% of Bank (20%+5%) split equally = £12.50 on each LAY) Swansea (6/5) v Crewe Peterboro (10/11) v Barnet Saturday 30th September (30% of the bank, ie 10% on each) Coventry (4/5) v Plymouth Gillingham (5/6) v Cheltenham Huddersfield (5/6) v Bournemouth (Prices shown are best prices on oddschecker as a guide to the lay price). NB text has been edited to put the Coventry game on the correct day (Saturday)

[pinhofap]

Re: Dodgy Home Favourites Good Luck with your system. Just a small word of advice, agressive staking plans based on 20 selections may be considered a bit suicidal by some (including me). I hope you prove me wrong, though!