Maximize your Betfair Profits!

[MetallicIan]

This is a strategy not a system.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Hope I'm not teaching anyone to suck eggs here but if it helps just one person here it will be worth it.

Please feel free to add your own comments (especially if you think you can smell any bullsh!t)

Using this method will often help you to squeeze better odds from betting exchanges and maximize your profits.

We know that getting an extra %age or three out of any system gives us an edge, hey even if its only a few percent it will cover our commission charges!

Anyway, to get on, this follows two principles.

On for example a football match with 3 possible outcomes (H,D,A)...

a). If you LAY two outcomes you are effectively backing the remaining outcome.

b). If you BACK two outcomes you are effectively laying the remaining outcome.

Here we see that if you would like to back an outcome, you can first check to see whether you would get BETTER EQUIVALENT ODDS if you were to lay the other remaining outcomes.

Here is an example from a European football match to illustrate the method in 4 steps...

Fixtures 19 July - Nantes v FC Wil						Total selections: 3
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Nantes	1.25	1.32	1.38		1.46	1.5	1.68
	£200	£121	£100		£111	£199	£100
FC Wil	4.9	5.7	6.6		10	12.5	16
	£56	£50	£42		£27	£30	£40
The Draw	3.2	3.55	3.75		5	6.6	8.2
	£63	£50	£50		£39	£45	£50

Let's say that we decide to back Nantes.

The best odds on offer here are 1.38.

However if we were to LAY FC Wil @ 10.00 and LAY the draw @ 5.00 then this is equivalent to backing Nantes at 1.43.

How? read on to find out...

1. Divide away odds of 10.00 into 100 = (100/10) which gives us 10%.

2. Divide draw odds of 5.00 into 100 = (100/5) which gives us 20%.

3. Add up both of these percentages i.e 10% + 20% = 30%***

4. So, if both of these outcomes count for 30% of the total event probability (which always adds up to 100%) we can see that the other remaining outcome must have 70% chance.

We calculate the equivalent adds for that outcome by dividing its percentage into 100.

= (100/70) = 1.43

As we can see from this illustration, this 1.43 is higher than the 1.38 on offer, so our best option is to lay both the draw AND the away selections instead of backing the Home selection. - In this example we have bettered the odds on offer by

(1.43/1.38) = 3.5% !

***(Just as an aside, you can ignore this for now but dividing this percentage by 100 gives us the equivalent odds of backing these joint outcomes = (100/30) = 3.33. Therefore, if we LAY at odds of 10.00 and 5.00, we are effectively backing both of these outcomes at odds of 3.33)

OK, this time let's see what happens if we want to back the draw...

The current best odds on offer are 3.75. Using our 4 steps we get...

1. 1.46 Home odds = 68.49%

2. 10.00 Away odds = 10%

3. Total = 78.49%

4. Equivalent backing odds are 100/(100 - 78.49) = 4.65

So in our back the draw example the best odds on offer are 3.75 but we can get them for 4.65 !

A gain of (4.65/3.75) = 19.3% better !

OK, I'll leave you for now to work out what the odds will be if you decide to back FC Wil and see what %age gain you can derive from the odds on offer - you will be amazed !

I'll be back soon to post up how to calculate the individual amounts to place on each of the outcomes in order to benefit from these types of gains (when I can remember how to work it out myself first!)

Best Regards,

Ian.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Maximize your Betfair Profits! Good post Ian and something Id imagine alot of people hadnt even thought of. I quite often check this for markets of 2 or 3 runners. Another similiar thing worth checking is prices on similiar markets. i.e. Back 1 goal or more on total goals Lay No next Goal Lay 0-0 correct score All the same bet but can often get different prices.

[zeropac]

Re: Maximize your Betfair Profits! Interesting post. As an old derivatives trader I recognise this. You need 2 of the 3 ( call option,putoption or future) to construct the third. Called a syntetic option or future. However the spreads in your example are quit large and probably not indicating realistic prices, so it is probably unlikely that you will get away with thoose good odds. Looking forward to you next post Cheers

[Sgt.Sunshine]

Re: Maximize your Betfair Profits! Interesting post Ian, and good to have the maths laid out for us. In the case above I think I would put an order of 1.45 down and wait, but then there's no guarantee of getting it, and 1.43 is pretty good in this case. Where this will be very useful I tihnk is betting in-running, in conjunction with a small calculator app maybe to make things quick and easy? I do a lot of IR tennis and always look at the back option, without calculating if laying the other guy would be better :$.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Maximize your Betfair Profits! Two runner markets are easy to work out quickly, Betfair can do it for you. Say its 1.50 and 2.80. £10 at 1.50 will make you £5 (before commission). Click lay and enter £5 for backers stake (so you're getting same profit). If your liability is less than £10 then its better to lay. Liability higher than £10 means its better to back.

[cavello]

Re: Maximize your Betfair Profits! N.B. Asian Handicaps are only charged at 1% commission. This is particularly important with the odds of the favourite around evens. On betfair it is not uncommon to see a bet offered at say @1.95 in 3 way match betting with 5% comm charge. But on the Asian Handicap the same bet offered @1.96 with 1% comm!!!

[Stephen]

Re: Maximize your Betfair Profits! "I'll be back soon to post up how to calculate the individual amounts to place on each of the outcomes in order to benefit from these types of gains (when I can remember how to work it out myself first!)" can someone provide the equation please?

[MetallicIan]

Re: Maximize your Betfair Profits! Ok, as promised here is the formula. I've tried to make it as easy as possible using 10 steps. Firstly decide on your stake. We shall call the two lay odds layA odds and layB odds. Now let... a = (1 / layA odds) x your stake b = (1 / layB odds) x your stake c = a + b d = your stake / c e = d - 1 f = your stake / e g = layA odds + layB odds h = f / g So finally, Stake 1 = h x LayA odds Stake 2 = h x LayB odds Ian.:ok

[MetallicIan]

Re: Maximize your Betfair Profits! just realised there was an error above which I've amended, h = f / g and not e / g!

[MetallicIan]

Re: Maximize your Betfair Profits! Just for completeness and to conclude this thread, the answer to the %age gain advantage question if we were to have backed FC Wil in the example above by laying Nantes and the Draw would have been a massive 24.1% !!! As for staking amounts using the formula in the three instances above (using an example £10 as your stake) Laying Home and Draw the stakes will be Lay Home @ 1.46 for £59.52 Lay the Draw @ 5.00 for £17.38 Laying Home and Away the stakes will be Lay Home @ 1.46 for £31.85 Lay the Away @ 10.00 for £4.65 Laying Draw and Away the stakes will be Lay Draw @ 5.00 for £2.86 Lay the Away @ 10.00 for £1.43 Note that although the totals of both of the stakes do not add up to your stake total, the important thing to note is that your LIABILITY on these bets do (which is equivalent to backing the other selection). Hope this has been useful, Ian.:ok

[dr.karl]

Re: Maximize your Betfair Profits! I like the idea behind this, but in reality how often would this situation arise? It surely has to rely on there not been fluidity in the pirces on any given market and in football I rarely see that happening.

[MetallicIan]

Re: Maximize your Betfair Profits!

I like the idea behind this' date=' but in reality how often would this situation arise? It surely has to rely on there not been fluidity in the pirces on any given market and in football I rarely see that happening.[/quote'] Hi Dr Karl, the match given in the example was shown to illustrate the theory behind the strategy, yet, even when there is good liquidity and a smaller overround it can still be advantageous to use this method as a comparison checker before placing any bets. It may also gain you an edge in a market which is still forming.