Maximize your Betfair Profits!

[MetallicIan]

This is a strategy not a system.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Hope I'm not teaching anyone to suck eggs here but if it helps just one person here it will be worth it.

Please feel free to add your own comments (especially if you think you can smell any bullsh!t)

Using this method will often help you to squeeze better odds from betting exchanges and maximize your profits.

We know that getting an extra %age or three out of any system gives us an edge, hey even if its only a few percent it will cover our commission charges!

Anyway, to get on, this follows two principles.

On for example a football match with 3 possible outcomes (H,D,A)...

a). If you LAY two outcomes you are effectively backing the remaining outcome.

b). If you BACK two outcomes you are effectively laying the remaining outcome.

Here we see that if you would like to back an outcome, you can first check to see whether you would get BETTER EQUIVALENT ODDS if you were to lay the other remaining outcomes.

Here is an example from a European football match to illustrate the method in 4 steps...

Fixtures 19 July - Nantes v FC Wil						Total selections: 3
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Nantes	1.25	1.32	1.38		1.46	1.5	1.68
	£200	£121	£100		£111	£199	£100
FC Wil	4.9	5.7	6.6		10	12.5	16
	£56	£50	£42		£27	£30	£40
The Draw	3.2	3.55	3.75		5	6.6	8.2
	£63	£50	£50		£39	£45	£50

Let's say that we decide to back Nantes.

The best odds on offer here are 1.38.

However if we were to LAY FC Wil @ 10.00 and LAY the draw @ 5.00 then this is equivalent to backing Nantes at 1.43.

How? read on to find out...

1. Divide away odds of 10.00 into 100 = (100/10) which gives us 10%.

2. Divide draw odds of 5.00 into 100 = (100/5) which gives us 20%.

3. Add up both of these percentages i.e 10% + 20% = 30%***

4. So, if both of these outcomes count for 30% of the total event probability (which always adds up to 100%) we can see that the other remaining outcome must have 70% chance.

We calculate the equivalent adds for that outcome by dividing its percentage into 100.

= (100/70) = 1.43

As we can see from this illustration, this 1.43 is higher than the 1.38 on offer, so our best option is to lay both the draw AND the away selections instead of backing the Home selection. - In this example we have bettered the odds on offer by

(1.43/1.38) = 3.5% !

***(Just as an aside, you can ignore this for now but dividing this percentage by 100 gives us the equivalent odds of backing these joint outcomes = (100/30) = 3.33. Therefore, if we LAY at odds of 10.00 and 5.00, we are effectively backing both of these outcomes at odds of 3.33)

OK, this time let's see what happens if we want to back the draw...

The current best odds on offer are 3.75. Using our 4 steps we get...

1. 1.46 Home odds = 68.49%

2. 10.00 Away odds = 10%

3. Total = 78.49%

4. Equivalent backing odds are 100/(100 - 78.49) = 4.65

So in our back the draw example the best odds on offer are 3.75 but we can get them for 4.65 !

A gain of (4.65/3.75) = 19.3% better !

OK, I'll leave you for now to work out what the odds will be if you decide to back FC Wil and see what %age gain you can derive from the odds on offer - you will be amazed !

I'll be back soon to post up how to calculate the individual amounts to place on each of the outcomes in order to benefit from these types of gains (when I can remember how to work it out myself first!)

Best Regards,

Ian.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Maximize your Betfair Profits! Good post Ian and something Id imagine alot of people hadnt even thought of. I quite often check this for markets of 2 or 3 runners. Another similiar thing worth checking is prices on similiar markets. i.e. Back 1 goal or more on total goals Lay No next Goal Lay 0-0 correct score All the same bet but can often get different prices.