Poker - Pot Odds vs Tourney Strategy

[AJ]

Let's start off by saying I'm not sure exactly where this post is going, and it could well turn into a bit of a ramble... Still here ? Good let's begin. I think I have a reasonable grasp of pot odds and the concept of a value bet. My doubts are about what should you do when pot odds clashs with (mostly stt) tournement strategy ?? As I get to the bubble I find myself getting offered chances to bet into pots which I think offer value to me, but I may be a 30% dog in the hand and getting odds of 4/1, everything says call, but I could fold and be almost sure of limping into the money. Seems to be the 2 theorys are in conflict. Is it better to ignore the value and ensure a smaller payment, or chance it for the likelyhood of failure and a longer shot of the win ?? I got thinking about this the other day, when at the bubble on a 6 player stt (3 left, 2 paid) I had 5.8k, other fella had 5.7k, final guy 500 with big blinds at 600. I was holding a A 2 suited, shorty on the button folded, number 2 guy called my big blind, I checked. The flop gave me a nut flush:loon , with a K J amongst them, he raised me hard. I reraised. He called. I pushed next time, he called. He was holding another K J and had 2 pair. He went out. Perhaps the call from him was good from a pot odds point of view and he had a great hand, but he went out with nothing when a fold would have made him certain of money.

[slapdash]

Re: Poker - Pot Odds vs Tourney Strategy This is closely connected to the discussion in the "Pot Odds or not?" thread, but it's a nice case to look at, because with only three players involved, it actually makes it possible to do some rough calculations. I'll assume the payout is $20 for first place and $10 for second place. I don't think it's true that your opponent was "certain" of money if he folded, by the way. There's no law saying the short stack can't win a few pots and get back in the game: I'd be surprised if the short stack had much less than a 10% chance of making the money. But for simplicity, let's ignore him. The reason that a simple pot odds argument doesn't give the right answer is that pot odds are looking at your expected number of chips, but this is not the same as looking at your expected amount of money. Before this hand, two of you each had about half the chips, and would expect to win about half the money, $15, each on average. But if one of you had 100% of the chips, you wouldn't get 100% of the money: you'd only get the first prize of $20. So 100% of the chips is only worth 4/3 as much as 50% of the chips, not twice as much. In general, when the prize structure is not "winner-takes-all", the more chips you have, the less each additional chip is worth. I don't know how much money went into the pot before the turn, but let's say you had both put about half your chips in. So he's getting 3/1 pot odds to call your push on the turn. If he folds, he's left with about 1/4 of the chips, so let's suppose he has about a 1/4 probability of winning the tournament from there, and a 3/4 probability of second place (since we're ignoring the short stack). So on average he'd win $12.50 in prize money. If he calls and wins, you're only left with 100 chips, so for simplicity let's say he's 100% to win, so he gets $20 in prize money. So by calling, he's risking $12.50 (on average) to win an extra $7.50, so he's only getting 3/5 odds on his money, and so would need at least a 62.5% chance of winning to make calling a good bet, even though he's getting 3/1 pot odds, so that in a cash game he should call with more than a 25% chance of winning the hand.