Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

[slapdash]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

p.s. .................... you won't believe how long this has taken to type :lol

You should buy yourself a keyboard. Then you wouldn't have to cut and paste all the letters one by one. :tongue2

[Valiant23]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

even i couldnt believe it:loon and i am as tight as a gnats chuff. by the way mrv have you ever seen 3 crazier consecutive hands than the end of that table . i cant remember the exact hand history but everybody was getting premium hands at the same time and it was absolute carnage.

Well, here is how I went out;

Just call me Bubble boy (again) :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol Hand #416028793 at table: Champs League-Rnd6 Started: Thu Sep 14 21:36:28 2006 djuju1 is at seat 1 with 1520.00 slapdash is at seat 2 with 3420.00 Drag0nking is at seat 3 with 690.00 oulton is at seat 4 with 3495.00 Zimbra is at seat 5 with 2630.00 uberpl is at seat 6 with 3580.00 oleola1311 is at seat 8 with 2475.00 Higgs23pl is at seat 10 with 2230.00 slapdash posts the large blind 400.00 djuju1 posts the small blind 200.00 djuju1: --, -- slapdash: --, -- Drag0nking: --, -- oulton: --, -- Zimbra: --, -- uberpl: --, -- oleola1311: --, -- Higgs23pl: Qs, Qh Pre-flop: Drag0nking: All in oulton: Call 690.00 Zimbra: Fold uberpl: Fold oleola1311: Call 690.00 Higgs23pl: All in djuju1: All in slapdash: Fold oulton: All in oleola1311: Fold Showdown: djuju1 shows: As, Ac (a pair of Aces) Drag0nking shows: Ah, Ks (high card, Ace) oulton shows: Kd, Ad (high card, Ace) Higgs23pl shows: Qs, Qh (a pair of Queens) Flop (Board: Jd, 7c, 9d): Turn (Board: Jd, 7c, 9d, Qd): River (Board: Jd, 7c, 9d, Qd, 8c): oulton shows: Kd, Ad (ace high flush) Sidepot 3: oulton wins the pot of 1020 with ace high flush Sidepot 2: oulton wins the pot of 3090 with ace high flush Mainpot: oulton wins the pot of 3850 with ace high flush (0.00 rake were taken for this hand)

But it didn't stop there did it? It was as though the RnG had had a logjam of good hands, and they were released near the bubble. It was great!! :lol

[-ed-]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

Imagine a situation with Scotland playing Brazil at football, the AA vs the 72o of world football.

Oi Oi OI :spank 72o of world football, surely we're better than that?? 67 of world football? :ok :cheers

[^Newbie^]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate After playing in one MTT today ,i experienced this kind of scenario twice . Once , i was playing against 2 players . Another one i was playing against 5 players . Against 2 players , i called . But against 5 players i folded . Someone has got to have me beaten somehow if i was up against 5 players . All in all , i feel it depends on what stage the game was at . Someone was willing to risk it in though . So thats about it .

[-ed-]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate With regard to this thread, does it really matter that much?? Maybe it was a bad call, maybe not, Hodgey felt it was the correct play at that point so why the lengthy post mortem? Personally I think I would've chucked it, however, sometimes you just have a feel for it and you play. As far as I'm concerned it can all be summed up in one word, poker :ok

[slapdash]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

With regard to this thread' date=' does it really matter that much?? Maybe it was a bad call, maybe not, Hodgey felt it was the correct play at that point so why the lengthy post mortem? Personally I think I would've chucked it, however, sometimes you just have a feel for it and you play. As far as I'm concerned it can all be summed up in one word, poker :ok[/quote'] I agree, and I'm one of those at fault. I over-reacted last night, and I apologize. But I think it's an interesting debate, and I'm still not sure exactly where I part company with the "anti-pot-odds" brigade, so to avoid making things personal any further, does anybody mind if I ask some questions about a hypothetical situation that is not that far from the hand that's been discussed, but where the numbers are simpler? If anybody does think there's an important difference between the hands, I'd be interested in that, as well. So: You're in a MTT where the final table gets paid, and it's down to two tables. You're the last to act, and everybody else has folded except one player who has gone all-in. You have 10,000 chips, there are 10,000 chips in the pot, and you need to put in a further 5,000 chips to call. Not all of these questions are meant to be controversial. :tongue2 (a) If you think you're favourite, do you call? (b) If you think it's a coin flip, do you call? © If you think you're an underdog (more than marginally), would you ever call? (d) If your answer to © is "yes", about how big an underdog would you have to think you are for you not to call? If your answers depend on facts I haven't specified, feel free to explain how. Thanks!

[morlspin]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate (a) If you think you're favourite, do you call? yes, if i beleive my hand is better, then i call (b) If you think it's a coin flip, do you call? never in a million years, why give him more chips with a hand of chance © If you think you're an underdog (more than marginally), would you ever call? again , never in a million years, wait your turn and take him out (d) If your answer to © is "yes", about how big an underdog would you have to think you are for you not to call? n/a

[msaban]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate a) yes b) possibily c) no - I'll wait until I'm either first to put the chips in or Ive got hands that I class under a or b 5000 is too much for me, if Ive only got 10000, 1000 maybe but 5000 then no

[slapdash]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate Can I just check that those who've answered so far realize that if you call, you're putting in 5,000 chips to win a possible 10,000? Just wasn't quite sure whether I'd made the numbers clear! Thanks!

[morlspin]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

Can I just check that those who've answered so far realize that if you call, you're putting in 5,000 chips to win a possible 10,000? Just wasn't quite sure whether I'd made the numbers clear! Thanks!

yeah totally clear thanks

[robilaruk]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate Gap Concept that is not actually the correct definition. The gap concept applies to calling a raise not an all in (with certain other caveats) - with an all in there is no more betting (assuming you are the only caller) so your call is based purely on your cards vs the villians vs the pot vs whether you want to gamble with your hand if you think it is inferior (i.e is behind and there is therefore a Gap) If they do have more chips then the Gap Concept does apply (its a Sklansky Theory and is covered briefly In HoH) With an all in, i think if you have plenty of chips then you can actually call with a weaker hand and therefore the gap concept doe not apply (how many more chips?, I dunno if its less than 15% of my stack then I will prolly call with any 2 - if its less than 10% of my stack then i am defo calling with any 2 - that is if I can guarentee I am the only caller etc) Damo

to call an all in than to actuall initiate an all in). quote]

[robilaruk]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate that is a no brainer - easy call he must have had a womble moment Damo

Yeah - I call in a flash - for 140 more!!!! Surprising because oleola is a VERY loose aggressive player......

[robilaruk]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate except if you fold then 'shortie' is still in the game and acts before you every time - so if he shoves next hand on the Button, are you calling in the SB? and the next hand - you are on the button, and its foled to the CO, and again he shoves - are you calling? and the next hand you are now in the CO and UTG+1 shoves - are you calling? etc etc etc - you might not actually get a chance to 'steal' the blinds on the next orbit - there are plenty of desperate players out there and plenty of biggish stacks who can stand the raises By folding you cannot guarentee a chance at the blinds from a late position Damo

I'm folding this pre-flop even though I know the chances are you are pushing on a steal. I am just not prepared to give up another 1,300 chips (a significant enough proportion of my stack). My M is about 4.5 which is shit and if I lose it is about 2.5 which is, obviously, even shitter. The button is almost round to me and then hopefully I am going to get my chance to push with any two cards and steal some blinds back myself.

[robilaruk]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate this is an easy call nearly all of the time (caveat below) Lets just work through this rather than folks just seeing the numbers to make it clear (and it might change a few minds) if I am last to act then I am the BB if I have only 10K in chips and there is 10K in the pot and its costs another 5K to call then he has shoved for 7K with the blinds at 1K/2K So I am pretty short stacked as well I would fold the underdog hand if I knew he had a PP above my 2 cards - if its AK vs my 75, then i might call - I need chips, and I am getting decent odds to call and get back in the game - depends how 'good' my dog cards are really - if they are suited connectors or plain connectors prolly yes - its its 8 2 off then prolly not - I would need inferior cards that can make a hand together as well as individually to call (str/flush etc) Damo

I agree, and I'm one of those at fault. I over-reacted last night, and I apologize. But I think it's an interesting debate, and I'm still not sure exactly where I part company with the "anti-pot-odds" brigade, so to avoid making things personal any further, does anybody mind if I ask some questions about a hypothetical situation that is not that far from the hand that's been discussed, but where the numbers are simpler? If anybody does think there's an important difference between the hands, I'd be interested in that, as well. So: You're in a MTT where the final table gets paid, and it's down to two tables. You're the last to act, and everybody else has folded except one player who has gone all-in. You have 10,000 chips, there are 10,000 chips in the pot, and you need to put in a further 5,000 chips to call. Not all of these questions are meant to be controversial. :tongue2 (a) If you think you're favourite, do you call? (b) If you think it's a coin flip, do you call? © If you think you're an underdog (more than marginally), would you ever call? (d) If your answer to © is "yes", about how big an underdog would you have to think you are for you not to call? If your answers depend on facts I haven't specified, feel free to explain how. Thanks!

[slapdash]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

I would fold the underdog hand if I knew he had a PP above my 2 cards - if its AK vs my 75, then i might call - I need chips, and I am getting decent odds to call and get back in the game - depends how 'good' my dog cards are really - if they are suited connectors or plain connectors prolly yes - its its 8 2 off then prolly not - I would need inferior cards that can make a hand together as well as individually to call (str/flush etc)

I'm not sure I quite sure I understand what you're saying here. Do you mean the decision depends on more than your estimate of your chance of winning the hand? It depends on what kind of hand you have that gives those odds as well? If so, why? Welcome back, by the way!

[msaban]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

Can I just check that those who've answered so far realize that if you call, you're putting in 5,000 chips to win a possible 10,000? Just wasn't quite sure whether I'd made the numbers clear! Thanks!

yes I'm with you here, however I wouldnt put in half my chips in, to win twice as much, If I didnt belive I had a starting hand that was in front to begin with. Maybe I need to learn this, to win more events rather than just finish. However to explain my answer further and sure we're singing off the same hymn sheet:- 10K in the pot, Ive got 10K, if I call for 5k and win I will have 20K, if I call for 5K and lose I will have 5k and the other player will have 15.I'm not going to call with what I believe not to be a wining hand from the off here. If however there is 10K in the pot and Ive got 100K and it costs me 5K to call, If i win I have 110K, if I lose i have 95K, then regardless of what Ive holding I would probably call Does this make sense, do you agree/disagree ? Thanks

[slapdash]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

Does this make sense, do you agree/disagree ? Thanks

Well, the "crude pot odds" argument would say that you should call with a 1 in 3 chance of winning or better. But as I've said, I don't think that pot odds should be used blindly in situations like this where there's a large number of chips at stake: I think that the 10,000 chips you stand to win are worth less than twice as much as the 5,000 you stand to lose. I agree with you that if it's 5% of your stack to win 10%, then the "crude pot odds" argument is much closer to the mark, and I'd call if I thought I was less than a 2-1 underdog. But even in the original case, I'd call like a shot if I thought it was a coinflip. I'm actually rather surprised that some people wouldn't. I don't really know how big an underdog I'd have to be before I should fold. 3-2, maybe? I think the people who fold are paying too much attention to the bad things that happen if you call and lose, and not enough to the good things that happen if you call and win.

[The Quiet Man]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate Come on Guys, it's just another Bad Beat! I very rarely post 'bad beats' as they happen all the time - just part of the game We've all been in the situation where we've taken a gamble with 'crap hands' but normally we lose and there's no scrutinising!! :ok I'd love to see someone call my 'all in' with 47 - you know you might lose but I'd take my chance! :loon TQM

[robilaruk]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate yes - spot on If I am calling with 'crap cards' then I want those cards to be working for me so 75 is a lot stronger than 82 because it can make a straight as well as pairing to beat someone's AK - and obviously 75 suited is slightly better (2%) than 75 off etc these things work into the equation when deciding when to call and when to fold. Odds - there are dictated to me, I can't change or manipulate them. All I can do in this situation is see that the blinds are 1K/2K I have paid the BB and have 10K left a desperate shortie has shoved for 7K in total and it costs me 5K to call and win 10K, so I am getting 2-1 on my money I am short stacked and I want to win, the bubble is close but not close enough, and I am probably in the bottom 3 or 4 with my chip stack, so at somepoint I am gambling (as it is unlikely that Aces are about to be dealt to me) So if I have 75s and I put the villian on any 2, it might be worth gambling now, rather than wait and pay the SB next hand and miss a chance, and then end up shoving 75s in the next 2 or 3 hands hoping to steal the blinds Depends on lots of factors, but most of all on whether I am happy calling when I am probably a 70/30 dog or so and trying to suck out ;) Damo ps - thanks - had a great time in Dorset! :ok

I'm not sure I quite sure I understand what you're saying here. Do you mean the decision depends on more than your estimate of your chance of winning the hand? It depends on what kind of hand you have that gives those odds as well? If so, why? Welcome back, by the way!

[slapdash]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate Damo, maybe we're talking at cross-purposes, but surely all that matters is how likely you are to win the hand (not whether you're likely to win the hand because you have straight chances, or flush chances, or high cards)?

[robilaruk]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate don't think we are my point is that with 75 I have a better chance of winning than with 82 vs AK for instance So it depends on pot odds and chip stacks and pay out structure and blinds and how bored/tired I am and whether he is shoving every hand and whether I need to go for a pee and want to double up or bust out etc etc etc I answered a hypothetical post with some thoughts on 'perfect play' (for me) given a range of cards I might play and what i would prefer to play given the scenario that was posted (does that help?) Cheers Damo

Damo' date=' maybe we're talking at cross-purposes, but surely [b']all that matters is how likely you are to win the hand (not whether you're likely to win the hand because you have straight chances, or flush chances, or high cards)?

[robilaruk]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate no not really - its about winning the tourney not the hand - the hand is irrelevant compared to the overiding concept of finishing first. In a tourney you don't need to win every hand, just the ones you decide to play and at some point you will be behind and outdraw someone to stay in and carry on playing That is why you play MTT/STT's, to win the tourny not a hand - in cash games you can sit down, win the first hand you play and leave (in profit) in a tourny you can't and your goal should be to win the tounry. Of course by playing hands in a tounry you can actually lose and go out - but hey thats poker! Damo

but surely all that matters is how likely you are to win the hand ?

[slapdash]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate What I meant was that, at this point, your decision whether to fold or call depends only on your judgement of how likely you are to win the hand if you call. I thought you were saying that is was better to call with certain hands that had, say, a 40% chance of winning than with other hands that had exactly the same chance, because they had straight chances. But apparently not. :ok

[robilaruk]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate I think we are getting confused here AK vs 75 or Ak vs 82 - its a 5% difference in beating the Ak with 75 compared to 82 - so from a point of view of picking two cards to call with then 75 is a better choice. Yes of course it is better to call with hands that have a better %tage chance of winning - I just picked two sets of hole cards at random to illustrate what I would prefer to call with hope this helps Damo

What I meant was that, at this point, your decision whether to fold or call depends only on your judgement of how likely you are to win the hand if you call. I thought you were saying that is was better to call with certain hands that had, say, a 40% chance of winning than with other hands that had exactly the same chance, because they had straight chances. But apparently not. :ok

[Valiant23]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate (a) If you think you're favourite, do you call? Yes - I proved that in the last SO CL tourney with my QQ. (b) If you think it's a coin flip, do you call? Sometimes. The coin flip depends on my read on the player. I have said before I would take an Ace-rag pusher with mid range cards such as J9. © If you think you're an underdog (more than marginally), would you ever call? No. I changed my tactics because I was told that 'Harrington says....', and I think my game suffered. I think if you're practically risking your tournament life then you should focus on going with cards that you would be happy to go out with, rather than calling a push. (d) If your answer to © is "yes", about how big an underdog would you have to think you are for you not to call?