Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

[slapdash]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

Have to confess I've just looked at the hand for the first time (I have got so bored of the "look what this muppet called with"/"How could I have played this better, calling 72o all in pre flop with my AA" threads, that I don't usually bother reading Hand Histories any more cos they're usually Bad Beats in "disguise"!!!) However, the SB raises all in when short stacked - it costs me 905 more to call and I'm getting 3-1!!! Where's the debate???? Surely you call with any 2 cards, without hesitation? I know I do EVERY TIME!!!! You KNOW the SB is pushing with any 2 there........

Actually 1305 more, I think. The chip counts are after the blinds?

[Valiant23]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate Yeah I think so too Slap.. :unsure And personally speaking I have in the past questioned other PLers judgement in the past. I've regretted it almost instantly because like Gaf I do agree that any player has the right to do what they like with their cards. My interest really in this is about debating whether pot odds are good in tournies. I know Pokerrose explained this to me, and I don't know whose rule it is, but what about the 'gap concept' (where you generally need to have a better hand to call an all in than to actuall initiate an all in). I for one would be most unhappy if this turned into an attack on any PLer.

[GaF]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate If it's a debate, then we all learn to understand one anothers point of view better and we all improve our understanding of how others play, and therefore our own games - that's good!!! There should be no space for this to get personal though - we're all on the same side!!!!!!!

[GaF]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

Actually 1305 more' date=' I think. The chip counts are [b']after the blinds?

More marginal then, however if we accept that the SB shoves with any 2, then Hodgey is 42% against a random hand equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 41.8493 % 39.11% 02.74% { 7d4d } Hand 2: 58.1507 % 55.41% 02.74% { random } I can understand why someone would choose to call!!!! (I think I would too, but not quite so certain now).

[teaulc]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

How do you feel about people slating Hodgey's play, teaulc? We've disagreed with him, but nobody's been rude to Morls in this thread. But personally, I have to say I'm appalled by the disrespect that has been shown to Hodgey.

i am showing no disrespect to anyone here,with all honesty if hodgeys gut feeling was to go for it,whether he was bored or fecked off or whatever reason,fine,nobody can predict that,he did do a bad call,if you want to state odds and all to justify it fine,i dont have a problem with that,but if you are all honest with yourselves you know that,,,once again i am not slagging anyone off here because we are all individuals

[GaF]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate Have sent it to Poker Night Live, with the simple question - "Is Hodgey a muppet to call here" - let's see what the "experts" think :ok

[Valiant23]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

Have sent it to Poker Night Live' date=' with the simple question - "Is Hodgey a muppet to call here" - let's see what the "experts" think :ok[/quote']:rollin :rollin :rollin Dear dear Gaf! It took me ages to say lets not start calling people names, and you go and blow it out of the water!

[Pokerose]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate its David Sklansky, Mr V and its any raise...and I'm going to try not to get involved with this debate...

[morlspin]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate May i just add something here........ Ive said my bit, and not once did i mean to offend any individual, yes it was hodgey who made the call, but the person making it has no bearing on the debate I do not want any personal attacks on any member of this forum, wether it be the caller, the loser or the people in the debate, this was not my intention

[Valiant23]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

its David Sklansky, Mr V and its any raise

Thanks Rose. :ok

[AJ]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

For me, the main skill in poker is in getting your money in when the pot is offering you better odds than the chance of it coming in, OR by offering your opponents inferior odds to what chance they will have ......

For me that's all the poker theory you'll ever need, everything else is just fluff. Do that over the long term and you'll win, fail to do this and you'll lose. The numbers were in his favour, for a long term player that's all that matters. I think Hodgey made the correct call here. I also think before criticising others play, you should put yourself in their seat and ask how you'd have played the hand. Just because your behind it's not always right to fold. Imagine a situation with Scotland playing Brazil at football, the AA vs the 72o of world football. Offer me even money on Scotland and I'm folding, offer me 100/1 and I'm taking the bet everytime

[morlspin]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

I also think before criticising others play, you should put yourself in their seat and ask how you'd have played the hand. Just because your behind it's not always right to fold.

Id fold 100% of the time, hence why i started the debate, regardless of pot odds, 7-4 is not a hand i would call an all in with ever.

[slapdash]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

i am showing no disrespect to anyone here' date='with all honesty if hodgeys gut feeling was to go for it,whether he was bored or fecked off or whatever reason,fine,nobody can predict that,he did do a bad call,if you want to state odds and all to justify it fine,i dont have a problem with that,but if you are all honest with yourselves you know that,,,once again i am not slagging anyone off here because we are all individuals[/quote'] I'm sorry, but that is showing disrespect to Hodgey. He thought his call was correct. I think he may have been right; I think it's a close decision. Maybe we're both wrong, but to suggest he must have done it because "he was bored or fecked off" is insulting! I very rarely get angry, but that really pisses me off!

[GaF]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

regardless of pot odds' date=' 7-4 is not a hand i would call an all in with ever.[/quote'] If the chip stack on the SB was only $801 (taking it to the absolute extreme), you would fold rather than call a pot of $1601 for $1 extra? Now I'm assuming that you will say you would call, in which case you are playing pot odds - it is just a question of WHERE you draw the line......

[morlspin]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

If the chip stack on the SB was only $801 (taking it to the absolute extreme), you would fold rather than call a pot of $1601 for $1 extra? Now I'm assuming that you will say you would call, in which case you are playing pot odds - it is just a question of WHERE you draw the line......

for $1 of course i would, thats just either being silly or trying to make me look like a fool, and it wouldnt be pot odds in my eyes, it would be common sense........id draw the line at making a significant call, double the bb say?

[GaF]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

for $1 of course i would' date=' thats just either being silly or trying to make me look like a fool, and it wouldnt be pot odds in my eyes, it would be common sense........id draw the line at making a significant call, double the bb say?[/quote'] Not trying to make you look a fool at all mate - arguments can be good to take to an extreme to establish a principle ;) Why do you think it is common sense to call for $1? I think it's common sense because I think I have about a 40% chance of winning but getting odds of 1600-1. I think you think it's common sense because you are doing the same mental arithmatic subconsiously!! You went on to say you would call for up to double the big blind - that's where you draw your line. So what you are actually saying (I think) is that you would pay $800 into a pot of $2400 with 74s? (tell me if I'm wrong, not trying to put words into your mouth). So you would call an all in, with 74s with pot odds of 3-1 (even if that is not exactly how you are looking at it). That isn't a million miles from Hodgey who called an all in with 2.6/1 (??? :unsure Is that right)

[Valiant23]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate Can I ask a question then? Have a look at this hand, and tell me whether oleola311 should have called? He claimed in the chat he couldn't call as he had 23os.... Even I was surprised, as he only had to add 140 chips, which is less than 10% of his stack.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hand #416014178 at table: Champs League-Rnd6 Started: Thu Sep 14 21:21:05 2006 djuju1 is at seat 1 with 5220.00 slapdash is at seat 2 with 855.00 Drag0nking is at seat 3 with 4165.00 oulton is at seat 4 with 4565.00 Zimbra is at seat 5 with 1595.00 uberpl is at seat 6 with 3355.00 68allin is at seat 7 with 2685.00 oleola1311 is at seat 8 with 1980.00 6ooner is at seat 9 with 7110.00 Higgs23pl is at seat 10 with 440.00 oleola1311 posts the large blind 300.00 68allin posts the small blind 150.00 68allin: --, -- oleola1311: --, -- 6ooner: --, -- Higgs23pl: 9d, Ah djuju1: --, -- slapdash: --, -- Drag0nking: --, -- oulton: --, -- Zimbra: --, -- uberpl: --, -- Pre-flop: 6ooner: Fold Higgs23pl: All in djuju1: Fold slapdash: Fold Drag0nking: Fold oulton: Fold Zimbra: Fold uberpl: Fold 68allin: Fold oleola1311: Fold Higgs23pl wins the pot of 750.00 by default (0.00 rake were taken for this hand)

[GaF]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate Yeah - I call in a flash - for 140 more!!!! Surprising because oleola is a VERY loose aggressive player......

[morlspin]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

Not trying to make you look a fool at all mate - arguments can be good to take to an extreme to establish a principle ;) Why do you think it is common sense to call for $1? I think it's common sense because I think I have about a 40% chance of winning but getting odds of 1600-1. I think you think it's common sense because you are doing the same mental arithmatic subconsiously!! You went on to say you would call for up to double the big blind - that's where you draw your line. So what you are actually saying (I think) is that you would pay $800 into a pot of $2400 with 74s? (tell me if I'm wrong, not trying to put words into your mouth). So you would call an all in, with 74s with pot odds of 3-1 (even if that is not exactly how you are looking at it). That isn't a million miles from Hodgey who called an all in with 2.6/1 (??? :unsure Is that right)

sorry i meant i WOULD NOT call if it cost me double the bb or more,

[AJ]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate for an extra 140 chips ?? Hell yeah, he should have called. Your all in should have been called by everyone at the table, it's clearly a desperation push

[slapdash]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

That isn't a million miles from Hodgey who called an all in with 2.6/1 (??? :unsure Is that right)

I make it about 2.226/1. But forget about pot odds for a moment, and just consider how many chips Hodgey will have after the hand: If he calls and wins, he'll have 7300 chips. If he folds, he'll have 4395 chips. If he calls and loses, he'll have 3090 chips. Forget who's calling, who's raising, etc., and just consider these numbers, because they're really all that matters. (Actually, there's also the fact that if he calls and wins, then he eliminates a player and so is one place closer to the money, but let's ignore that.) Now, I'm sure everybody would agree that having 7300 chips is better than having 4395 chips, and that having 4395 chips is better than having 3090 chips. What do you "risk" by calling? The worst that can happen is that you lose the hand, in which case you end up with 4395 - 3090 = 1305 fewer chips than if you had folded. So you are "risking" 1305 chips. What if you fold? The worst that can happen is that you would have won, in which case you end up with 7300 - 4395 = 2905 fewer chips than if you had called. So you are "risking" 2905 chips. There's a risk in folding, just as there's a risk in calling. Whatever decision you make, you are gambling.

[FatBoyFat]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate FWIW, my two penneth and please critique the post as we are all here to learn from each other. I'm folding this pre-flop even though I know the chances are you are pushing on a steal. I am just not prepared to give up another 1,300 chips (a significant enough proportion of my stack). My M is about 4.5 which is shit and if I lose it is about 2.5 which is, obviously, even shitter. The button is almost round to me and then hopefully I am going to get my chance to push with any two cards and steal some blinds back myself. Unlike your stack of 2,105 mine at 5,195 (4,395 after I fold) should be enough to make the BB fold if I get a chance to enter first in and push. Unfortunately your stack is now so low that those who like to use pot odds to justify a call can make the call. I guess you may have just lost the last hand (I don't know what happened here) but it could be easy to turn the question around and ask how you let your stack get down to only cover almost 2 rounds of blinds rather than how someone can call with 74s. When you push with a stack this size I wouldn't be surprised by a call from the BB ( especially if they were carrying more chips than Sleekshot). However, even though I know I am getting pot odds I decline to call as I think there will be better spots to get my chips in and my chance to push and pick up the blinds is just round the corner. When you pushed with that came fold equity. Your fold equity worked with me as I 'reluctantly' fold. For me this decision could go either way but I would probably fold. Catch me after a few 'wife beaters' and I may call. I guess this is were I struggle with this topic. For me it isn't a great decision but it isn't a crazy one either. I'm sure we all see worse decisions every day (AJo cold calling a raise and a re-raise OOP in the SB - because it is AJo we don't see a post questioning that play but I personally I would argue that this AJo decision is worse). Blinds battles when the M's are ~ 2 and 4 for me don't warrant as great a discussion. I feel I can justify any decision at this stage by saying your M is 2 and mine is 4 - it's gambling time. I don't do this though; as I said earlier, I think better spots will come so I fold.

Id fold 100% of the time' date=' hence why i started the debate, regardless of pot odds, 7-4 is not a hand i would call an all in with ever.[/quote'] However, give me 10 times your chips in this position and I'm probably calling with any 2 cards for the chance to knock you out. Harrington speaks about this 10-1 rule (in vol. 3 - unfortunately not to hand) for final tables but with a large enough stack I am happy to follow it one table out (especially if it is a SB push from an agressive player who could have any 2 cards). With 10 times your chips at a final table I am calling with any 2 cards, yep including 72o; creates a nice loose image (which I am not) as well. If the ever tight Harrington is warranting this kind of play then I think we should all consider it in our reportaire. GL at the tables.

[GaF]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate Nice post FBF :ok

[Valiant23]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate Yes spot on. :ok However..... Laidbackbloke had just finished typing his reply at 00:27, and he'd said pretty much the same thing. ;)

[laidbackbloke]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

More marginal then, however if we accept that the SB shoves with any 2, then Hodgey is 42% against a random hand equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 41.8493 % 39.11% 02.74% { 7d4d } Hand 2: 58.1507 % 55.41% 02.74% { random } I can understand why someone would choose to call!!!! (I think I would too, but not quite so certain now).

Its a pretty tricky one ....................... Like GAF, when i thought the chip counts were before the blinds had been paid i would have definitely called ( i might not have liked my cards but i would have called) Given that the stack sizes are after the blinds have been paid i can understand either calling or folding............... I can't say for certain which choice i would make, but i'm slightly leaning towards folding as imo i can still afford to. :unsure On a more general point i would agree with mr V's post earlier about the difference between using pot odds to make decisions in cash games and using pot odds to make decisions in tournaments. In cash games, decisions can be taken based solely on pot odds/ implied odds ..................if it doesn't work out on that occasion you can buy in again.......... overall as is often quoted if you keep putting your chips in when the odds are in your favour then you should make a profit. However, for tournaments, unless its a rebuy, then once you are out ..............thats it ...... game over. There are lots of hands that you could justify making a call due to pot odds, where its not necessarily a great idea. If you had a 25% chance of winning a hand and the pot was giving you correct odds to call all-in then its worth bearing in mind that for the 1 tournament that you win the hand, you will be knocked out of 3 tournaments ........................... and thats just winning the hand, not winning the tournament or even making the money. In a cash game if you put your chips in with the odds in your favour then you should make more money than you lose overall............................ in a tournament if you put your chips in with the odds in your favour then you should make more chips than you lose overall (you don't necessarily win anything) ...................... its not quite the same thing as some of the hands you lose will result in you being knocked out. In tournaments i use pot odds as an aid to making decisions............................. but they are only one factor to take into consideration in making a decision- i wouldn't automatically call if i had pot odds.................................... Stack sizes in relation to the blinds, % of stack that will be committed, Am i already effectively committed to the pot? Am i drawing to the nuts? Is this the best chance i'm going to get to boost my stack? or am i likely to get a better chance?................ etc etc. If i am committing myself to a pot then i want to have a good chance of winning it (or just no other option :lol ) ........ not just the "comfort" of reassuring myself that despite the fact i will crash out of a large percentage of tournaments i will overall win more chips than i lose :unsure p.s. .................... you won't believe how long this has taken to type :lol

[DAN DAN]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate Brains - all over the walls, just glad I don't think before I play :loon

[DAN DAN]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate I think people put far too much emphasis on the statistics of poker, 7 4o seems madness to me.

[ubermonkey1]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate

Can I ask a question then? Have a look at this hand, and tell me whether oleola311 should have called? He claimed in the chat he couldn't call as he had 23os.... Even I was surprised, as he only had to add 140 chips, which is less than 10% of his stack.

even i couldnt believe it:loon and i am as tight as a gnats chuff. by the way mrv have you ever seen 3 crazier consecutive hands than the end of that table . i cant remember the exact hand history but everybody was getting premium hands at the same time and it was absolute carnage.

[^Newbie^]

Re: Pot Odds or Not? A Debate Hmmmm , if i'm behind and my mind is thinking logically at that point in time , i'll fold it . :ok If i'm not logical cause of :beer:beer:beer:beer and stuffs , u're right to say that . :ok

Just because your behind it's not always right to fold .

[Penelopeys]

Re: September SportingOdds Champions League

I actually think we are totally wrong and bang out of order to continually slate plays here - whether Hungarian or PL - hole cards are your own and they "belong" to you - you do with them as you wish and using whatever logic (or lack of) you chose - that's the right you earnt when you bought in/enteresd the freeroll!!!! It's interesting how frequently someone starts off along the lines of "look what this muppet played", but when it's delved into, then there is a reason for the play that maybe the original poster didn't consider .... the reasons may be flawed/incorrect, but in the minds of the player, they were solid (or they wouldn't have done it) - you may be a better player than them and make better decisions, or you ("you" 2nd person plural, generic - noone in particular!!!) or you may be a worse player and not understand the real reasons they played the hand as they did (calling all in with 74 for example doesn't in my view automatically make someone a muppet). Either way, if poker were simple enough that everyone played perfectly, then it WOULD be a game of chance and there would be no skill involved......

Couldn't agree more!!!! Especially the lines I highlighted... I have never read any books about odds... but I have a rough idea, as I have a great relationship with numbers. I don't LIVE by odds, I call if it seems good value... WITH ANY 2 CARDS... I saw that hand the other night, was on my table... And given his chipstack, postition etc there was no other choice than to call!!! I am sure he wished he had had a better hand than 74off... BUT... as we all know ANY 2 CARDS can win a pot... Myself in that position: Would have called with any 2 cards any day!!! And just an experiment: Lets say that Tealc (or Morls) was trying to steal the blinds with that raise, and had an average hand in stead of Pocket Kings. Would one be as upset??? Isn't it just because one automatically counts on winning the hand with a hand like Pocket Kings??? Anyway: We're all different Poker Players and some take more chances than others. Those who doesn't take a lot of chances WILL suffer more "Bad Beats" than the rest!! Jaded is an excellent example: He plays almost everything... sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't... But he often wins pots where he is behind from the beginning, and so would all of us if we just played those cards too!!!