Be the Bookie (LAY All)

[thunderfoot]

After looking at over 7,600 races (just under a years worth!!) I think I've ID'd a possible system. I say 'possible' because I haven't had the time to back-test it in earlier years, so if anyone has the data to hand please feel free to back-test further and post the results here. Would be interested to know how this performs over past years. The System. Simple .... LAY all horses in a race. Criteria.

1. 11 runners or more to start race.
2. Favourite SP = 8/11 to 15/8 (1.73/2.88 which equates to about 1.80/3.00 LAY odds on Betfair)
3. Maximum SP of any horse must be 75.00 (BACK) or more on BF (about 43/1 at a bookies)

From the 7,600+ races the criteria reduced the selections down to 771 races which returned £17k to £10 stakes per horse, after taking into account the 5% Betfair commission. Because I've posted the selection method I'll reserve the right to come back with any results, even after the event. I'll use the the SP's shown on SportingLife to ID possible races and convert these SP's to those shown above. To calculate the estimated LAY odds on Betfair I'll use the following %'ages against the SP's shown on SL :- 1.73 to 3.00 ... +5% 3.01 to 7.50 ... +10% 7.51 to 12.00 ... +20% 12.01 to 16.00 ... +30% 16.01 to 21.00 ... +40% 21.01 to 26.00 ... +50% 26.00 + ............. +70% Anyone who wants to post 'results' before I get back to the thread, feel free, you've got the criteria and calculations to use above, and examples of the 'system' in operation below!!! To see this in 'action' see the 20:00 at Windsor on 31/7/2006... 12 runners; 6/4F; Max. SP 66/1 (just happens to be a nice winner!!), and to see an 11+ horse race with the favourite at odds of 1.73 to 2.88 that doesn't meet the criteria because of criteria 3), see the 16:10 at Pontefract on 30/7/2006 (2 horses at 28/1 ... should be 43/1 or more) .... would've been another nice winner though .... but you can't win them all!!!! Edit: Here are some more races that qualified. These are from my database, so 'hopefully' they tie-up with the real results. I haven't double checked 'em :loon

Date	Section	Time	Course
13/07/2006	Flat	05:15	Folkestone
15/07/2006	Flat	04:15	Lingfield
15/07/2006	Flat	07:35	Salisbury
16/07/2006	NH	02:00	Stratford
17/07/2006	Flat	07:55	Windsor
17/07/2006	Flat	08:25	Windsor
19/07/2006	Flat	03:20	Lingfield
19/07/2006	Flat	07:28	Kempton
19/07/2006	Flat	07:56	Kempton
21/07/2006	Flat	04:55	Carlisle
21/07/2006	Flat	06:15	Newmarket
22/07/2006	NH	02:35	Market Rasen
22/07/2006	Flat	04:25	Newmarket
22/07/2006	Flat	07:40	Haydock
23/07/2006	NH	03:10	Stratford
24/07/2006	Flat	06:50	Windsor
26/07/2006	Flat	02:30	Lingfield
27/07/2006	NH	03:40	Uttoxeter
28/07/2006	Flat	04:45	Thirsk
28/07/2006	Flat	07:20	Chepstow
29/07/2006	Flat	04:45	Nottingham
30/07/2006	Flat	02:00	Pontefract
31/07/2006	Flat	08:00	Windsor

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Be the Bookie (LAY All) Surely if the market is under 100% ( which it always is, bots make sure of that) then in the long run itll show a loss??