cavello Posted October 6, 2006 Author Share Posted October 6, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers Final selection for weekend. This time in Belgium Div 2!!!! Denderleeuw 549 1.95 51.28 1.68 115.88 5 pts Denderleuw @1.95 with Bet365:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted October 6, 2006 Author Share Posted October 6, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers over 4 pts profit for Friday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted October 8, 2006 Author Share Posted October 8, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted October 12, 2006 Author Share Posted October 12, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 5 selection for this weekend. Tampere Utd-1037:void(B6())'>1.7557.141.22144.00Preston443:void(BQ('714317'))'>2.3941.841.84129.86RBC-782:void(SB('1480694','5/6'))'>1.8354.641.56117.31Libourne321:void(BF('20092161'))'>2.540.001.89132.31Partick-385:void(B6())'>2.147.621.89110.83 Advised bets: Tampere 5 pts @ 1.77 (-0.5 AH) Bet365:hope Preston 5 pts @ 2.05 (-0.25 AH) Bet365:hope RBC 5 pts win @ 1.83 with Sportingodds:hope Libourne 4 pts win @2.5 with Bet1128:hope Partick 5 pts win @2.1 with Expekt:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted October 13, 2006 Author Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers New Selection due to price drift. 5 pts win Livingston @1.95 (-0.5 AH ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted October 13, 2006 Author Share Posted October 13, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers New Selection in Sweden Div 2 Mjallby621:void(BF('20099388'))'>2.1845.871.66131.67 2.7 now on offer 4 pts win Mjailby with Expekt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted October 15, 2006 Author Share Posted October 15, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 45 bets so far PROFIT/LOSS+7.22YIELD3.17%STRIKE RATE55.42% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted October 19, 2006 Author Share Posted October 19, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers Fist bet of weekend in French Div 2 Metz-7692.343.481.53150.71 4 pts Metz @2.4 with Bet1128 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted October 19, 2006 Author Share Posted October 19, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers More selections for this weekend. Chateauroux623:void(EU(38670705))'>1.758.821.52111.66Derby236:void(BF('20107320'))'>2.5639.062.09122.27Dag Redbridge995:void(VC())'>1.662.501.43111.69Cardiff-644:void(BQ('716950'))'>2.7935.842.15129.94 Bets. Chateauroux 7 pts @1.7 with Expekt:hope Derby 4 pts 2.56 @2.56 with Betfair:hope Dag & Redbridge 7 pts @1.6 with Betfair:hope Cardiff 5 pts @2.08 (0 AH) with Bet1128:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted October 20, 2006 Author Share Posted October 20, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 2 more bets in Sweden and Norway Start630:void(PB())'>1.8952.911.65114.72Ljungskile589:void(BF('20108884'))'>2.0149.751.68119.53 Bets; 5 pts Ljungskile @2.10 with Betsafe:hope 5 pts Start @1.90 with Expekt:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted October 23, 2006 Author Share Posted October 23, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers PROFIT/LOSS -8.28 ptsYIELD-3.12%STRIKE RATE51.55% No comment required about this week.:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted October 26, 2006 Author Share Posted October 26, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers Just 3 selections so far this week. Wallsall 5 pts @1.85 with Expekt:hope Morton 7 pts @1.57 general:hope Stirling Albion 5 pts @1.92 (-0.25 AH) with Pinnacle:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 26, 2006 Share Posted October 26, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers Hello Cavelloman, I'm glad I've found someone else who talks about statistical modelling techniques etc. Please take a look at my thread - i'd be interested in your comments/thoughts/reservations etc. http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=36219 Good luck with your selections this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 2, 2006 Author Share Posted November 2, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 4 Selections this week. Lincoln 4 pts @ 2.5 with Blue Square Oldham 5 pts @1.99 (0 AH) with Pinnacle Striling Albion 5 pts @1.95 with Expekt Morton 7 pts @1.5 with Expekt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 10, 2006 Author Share Posted November 10, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 5 Selections this week. Palermo 7pts @1.53 Mansion:hope Wigan 5 pts @2.0 Expekt:hope Siena 5 pts @2.14 Mansion:hope Le Mans 5 pt @1.8(DNB) Bet365:hope Troyes 4 pts @2.53 Mansion:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 13, 2006 Author Share Posted November 13, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers PROFIT/LOSS-6.77YIELDS-2.06%STRIKE RATE52.10%TOTAL BETS62 From now on will concerntrate on 3 groups. 1. Top Divisions of England,France,Germany and Spain. Have decided to avoid Italy due to some "dodgy" matches in this country. 2. England Champions to Conference 3. Scottish 1,2 and 3. Will continue to use Times Predictor,M Wray and RFO for comfirmation of out of line odds. :hope Hope to do better in the coming months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 16, 2006 Author Share Posted November 16, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 3 Selection this week so far. Seville 4 pts @2.5 with PremierBet:clap Recreativo Huelva 5 pts @1.92(-0.25AH) with Bet365:clap Reading 5 pts @2.00 with Mansion.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 19, 2006 Author Share Posted November 19, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers PROFIT/LOSS8.83ptsYIELD2.57%STRIKE RATE 54.40% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 23, 2006 Author Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 4 bets this week. Aston Villa @1.87 with Pinnacle:hope Manchester United 5 pts @1.83 (0 AH) with Mansion:hope Plymouth 5 pts @2.02 (-0.5 AH) with Pinnacle:hope Lille 5 pts @1.8 with Betdirect:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 26, 2006 Author Share Posted November 26, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 4 bets this week. Aston Villa @1.87 with Pinnacle:sad Manchester United 5 pts @1.83 (0 AH) with Mansion:sad Plymouth 5 pts @2.02 (-0.5 AH) with Pinnacle:sad Lille 5 pts @1.8 with Betdirect:hope Back on the negative side now.:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 1, 2006 Author Share Posted December 1, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 2 selections for weekend. 4 pts A Bielefield @2.5 with Paddy Power 5 pts Rec Huelva @1.94 (+0.25 AH) with Ladbrokes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 2, 2006 Author Share Posted December 2, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 2 selections for weekend. 4 pts A Bielefield @2.5 with Paddy Power 0-0:sad 5 pts Rec Huelva @1.94 (+0.25 AH) with Ladbrokes won 2-0 :clap Looks like I took the Asian Handicap option on the wrong match here:eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 7, 2006 Author Share Posted December 7, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers Just one selection this weekend. 5 pts Plymouth @2.o with Mansion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 9, 2006 Author Share Posted December 9, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers Just one selection this weekend. 5 pts Plymouth @2.o with Mansion. Won 1-0:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 10, 2006 Author Share Posted December 10, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers PROFIT/LOSS +0.53ptsYIELDS0.14%STRIKE RATE 53.24%BETS73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 15, 2006 Author Share Posted December 15, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 4 bets this weekend. 5 pts win Wallsall @ 2.18 (-0.25AH) Bet1128 4 pts win Zaragoza @2.44 Mansion 5 pts win Getafe @2.05 (+0.5 AH) Bet365 4 pts win Partick @2.5 Expekt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 17, 2006 Author Share Posted December 17, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 4 bets this weekend. 5 pts win Wallsall @ 2.18 (-0.25AH) Bet1128 1/2 loss 4 pts win Zaragoza @2.44 Mansion:sad 5 pts win Getafe @2.05 (+0.5 AH) Bet365:sad 4 pts win Partick @2.5 Expekt :sad The Partick was the worse result considering I got 2.5 about a team that went off at 2.1.:@ Some serious thinking required here over the Christmas period. On should I continue, ditch or adopt a slightly changed method. That would be using this method with my power ratings. +1.2 for homes and 1.8 for aways. Anyway had a good day in Ireland using the slapdash method* plus draws and unders winning along with my overs. The icing on the cake 2 full weeks with 100% winners on the hot favourite method. Come on me your letting the side down:rollin * There was a race where the Betfair prices were lower on 2 horses(2nd and 3rd favs against short price favourite) for the win compared with the SP. unfortunately the 2 finished 2nd and 3rd for a small profit. Plus a classic 2nd fav against odds on in a bumper winning in a photo at 11/4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 22, 2006 Author Share Posted December 22, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 2 bets for this weekend. Leyton Oriient 4 pts win @2.37 (Betfair-comm) Dunbarton 5 pts win @2.25 with Totesport Leyton Orient have on my figures a big advantage in terms of penetration. Shots for/against this season are 219/225 for Leyton against 224/320 for Crewe. The figures for corners are even more one sided. Still its goals that decide matches so I'm hoping that Leyton's shot conversion rate improves on Saturday. Dunbarton also look overpriced based on my poisson distribution method which prices then at closer to 1.8 to 1.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 23, 2006 Author Share Posted December 23, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 2 bets for this weekend. Leyton Oriient 4 pts win @2.37 (Betfair-comm):sad Dunbarton 5 pts win @2.25 with Totesport:ok Leyton Orient have on my figures a big advantage in terms of penetration. Shots for/against this season are 219/225 for Leyton against 224/320 for Crewe. The figures for corners are even more one sided. Still its goals that decide matches so I'm hoping that Leyton's shot conversion rate improves on Saturday. Dunbarton also look overpriced based on my poisson distribution method which prices then at closer to 1.8 to 1.9 Profitable day:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted December 24, 2006 Author Share Posted December 24, 2006 Re: Ratings,Trend lines,Odds and outliers 1 bet only for Boxing Day. Dagenham & Redbridge 5 pts @1.8 with Expekt/Skybet/William Hill:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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