Tips on laying

[Madhouse]

Only recently set up an account on Betfair as I wanted to dabble in the old laying business. I've been looking on sites for tips about laying, but I didn't really come across any solid writing on the topic. So I was just wondering, has anyone got some basic advice to offer a newbie to laying ? What should I look out for in particular? The main problem I've come across so far is the staking strategy as I've been so used to backing using a percentage staking plan (1-10, max is 5% of bank). Regards, Madhouse.

[Stu77]

Re: Tips on laying Hi Madhouse. I don't lay over odds of 5/1 and always look to find value when laying. The higher the odds you lay at the more difficult it is to find value. If you are looking to lay an 8/1 shot from the racingpost the horse might be trading at 10/1 or higher on betfair. The extra 20% profit that betfair talk about is normally found on the outsiders with the % decreasing as you come in to 5/1 4/1 and lower. If you have a good selection system for selecting outsiders that lose the vast majority of time you could use a stoploss but that involves using trading software which is another story. Back to laying under 5/1. I tend to lay just before the race starts. Quite often 1 horse will be backed hravily before the start of a race but as he gets backed down he then can become a value bet. A horse that should be say 3/1 can often end up 2/1 because of a high profile jockey/trainer combo but if the horse is not running to form then he is at a false price and a lay. Over time this approach has worked very well for me but then it takes practise and experience to find value. Learn everything you can about all aspects of the racingpost and over time you will get a feel for finding value. You will have losing days but over time you will win much more. This is only my approach. There are many more which will be interesting to hear about from other forum members.

[pinhofap]

Re: Tips on laying Hello Madhouse, the previous post by Stu77 is a good one, and basically the laying value is more easily found at short prices. I think laying at lower prices you are also confortable to lay to fixed profit, which works best for me, but those are usually personal decisions. Take a look at Danny Cash horse laying thread which is very succesful, Profitable Laying System, and browse through the forum and archives, I have found some precious gems regarding staking plans and money management which make me feel much more confident in my betting choices these days. And Laying is just like backing, you have to find value... I'm not an expert in form or horse racing, but it seems I may have found an edge in laying tipped horses, as Stu77 explained, some horses are backed by "not so smart" money down to prices way below their real value, sometimes you see a horse at 1PM with odds of 1.8 and before the off he may be as low as 1.57 (I recorded this a couple of weeks ago). I am no expert but there are some possible explanations for this (if you have the time and patience to read this): - a horse is given a first price, which tends to be very close to its real value (the odds compilers know their stuff, I'm sure). - however, that price, thanks to betting exchanges, now enters a "free market", where its final price will be determined by what the market expectations towards it are. This is especially true of very hot favourites, that have lots of money going into them. - due to an external factor (gossip, tips on a national newspaper, rain overnight changing the going conditions, etc, etc) the horse may shorten or lenghten in price. - imagine a 1/2 fav that has several newspapers and tipsters saying it will win, the happy punters start putting their money on this absolutely sure win. On Betfair this forces the price down a bit artificially, and when bookmakers start receiving a lot of bets on one particular horse, I think they place back bets on betfair to cover their backs (they are laying the horse as bookies, right?, so if he does win, they lose some, win some and make a profit anyway). I read somewhere that bookies regularly place bets on betfair to ensure profit in every race, and it makes sense. There is now lots of money backing the horse (happy punters and bookies), and the price keeps going down, up to a point where you can get a 5-10% edge by laying it. The real value of the horse was really around 1/2, but the market expectations forced the price down. Other factors account for this, not only tipsters, of course, I'm only talking about what I've studied, but I'm sure others will be more able to tell about finding good value in false favourites, form, going up in class, etc. Good Luck