Help needed - calculating risk of going bankrupt

[pinhofap]

I need some halp regarding how to calculate the risk of going bankrupt on a system. The lay the tipsters system is well in profit but has a high volatility with lots of ups and downs, and before I put my money on it, I want to calculate the risk of going broke. I plan to use a fixed percentage of bank liability of 1% per selection, multiplying this 1% by the number of tips. The maximum number of tips is 3, so maximum liability ever will be 3%, Data for the system using fixed 1 pt per tip is: Average liability: 1.67 pts Yield: +9.46% Total Bets: 290 Strike rate: 67.93% Average Odds: 2.9 Average Lose Odds: 2.53 Average Win Odds: 3.07 I compared side to side laying to a fixed 1 pt per tip from a starting bank of 100 pts and laying to a fixed 1% per tip. At fixed stakes final bank is 145.9pts and using fixed percentage of bank liability final bank is 201.77pts. Double the profit is nice, but the problem I see is that the risk of losing everything is also bigger, so I'd like to ask for the expert's help in finding the best solution. The biggest loss at any time was a drop of 17.5% from 189.05pts to 156.7pts. The system is very volatile with constant ups and downs. If you need more data please say so and I'll post it. Thanks Pinho

[Datapunter]

Re: Help needed - calculating risk of going bankrupt I'd normally be all too happy to have a good look, but just don't have the time at the moment. Best i can do, if no-one else jumps in, is promise to have a detailled look in about a month.