Betting According to Bookie's Estimation

[sEnz8502]

First off I must say I'm not good at probability and this idea I got from the other forum and i'm trying to refine it altho it's performing quite well. The idea is betting according to bookie's estimation from the odds and use your stake to win. So without much explaination, here's abit calculation. The Asian Handicap and Over/Under bet gives lay-man a perception of 50-50 choice. But we do know odds offered here gave one selection slight favorite and that's according to bookie. So, at 1.90 odds, bookie expect 1/1.90*0.96 = 51% winning bet on that selection from us. That means if we bet 100 games at odds 1.90, we'll win 51 games out of 100. But in terms of money, say we stake 100 per bets we'd lose $4900 while won 51 x $90 = $4590 which we still at lost here. So here we'd try to play under bookie's expectation. The rules here is to bet on teams with odds under 1.90 (which means a slightly higher hit rate estimated from bookies) and only on bet with 2 choices (AH or O/U). I believe we can't go wrong far with these bet. Out of all, we only expect our hit rate to be 40% (we actually underestimate our chance), somewhere around 2 hits out of 5 games. So here's a little bit of example : Game 1 - odds 1.85 - $100 - lose - p/l ($100) Game 2 - odds 1.85 - $100 - lose - p/l ($100) Game 3 - odds 1.85 - $100 - lose - p/l ($100) ---at this point in order to win we need to increase stake - Game 4 - odds 1.80 - $200 - win - p/l $160 Game 5 - odds 1.80 - $200 - win - p/l $160 In short we actually wins $20 here. SO how if we hit 5 games losing streak? Remember, we're playing according to the BOOK estimation and they won't offer a selection which has more than 50% chance to win at odds 2.50, 3.00, 4.50 or 12.40!!! How many times u win a selection at odds 1.80 instead of 4.50? So i'm quite confident if we play a 1000 games, we will hit somewhere close to 50% by juz choosing odds around 1.90, period- However, luck does come into picture a little bit. It seems alot of theory here so my motive here is to put this into test so.... :drums picks coming soon...lol :cheers

[sEnz8502]

Re: Betting According to Bookie's Estimation *trying to avoid international friendlies, n.1 Sweden Suprettan Ã…tvidabergs FF vs Degerfors IF total goal under 2.5 odds 1.80 stake $100 bet365 Nationwide Conference n.2 Rushden & D'monds vs Grays Athletic total goal under 2.5 odds 1.80 stake $100 n.3 Stevenage vs York home asian handicap -0.5 [url=http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/] odds 1.80 stake $100 n.4 Weymouth vs Aldershot total goal over 2.5 odds 1.80 stake $100 n.5 Gravesend vs Tamworth home win 1x2 odds 1.90 stake $100 I'm rolling 5 games to start with...... let's see how far we can reach Starting Capital $2000 Pending $500 Balance $1500