In-play Strategy and Opportunities

[pinhofap]

This is not a system, I'd just like to start a small discussion on what in-play strategies different people use in different sports, it is not usual to see threads regarding this issue, so I thought I'd just add to the discussion. Tennis: In-play tennis has a lot of money on the markets and a lot of speculation I think, you see lots of speculative bets that are only there to force the markets up or down. There was someone on the betfair forum who started a "10 to 10k using 1.01" thread and I remember he lost on women tennis. One common factor in all in-play markets is the tendency to overreact, especially if the favourite does well in the early stage of the match. I trade the tennis markets a lot with minimum bet liability just for fun and to train, and once I came across a game between Venus Williams and a low ranked player. The first set had ended 6-5 for Venus and the second set was now 3-3. You'd say a balanced match, with the favourite in the lead, her odds should be what 1.5? 1.3? They were 1.05 and I happily layed that result to trade it later at 1.5. In fact she lost the second set and the third set on a tie-brake. One thing that appears to be common in tennis is that if the favourite wins the first set people think the match his won and the odds drop to under 1.2. This can bring great opportunities for traders, because laying a 1.1 result has very low liabilities and if the result goes with the favourite you can still trade out for a very small loss. On the other hand when a very good player loses a first set, people will tend to think that he may well lose the match, and the underdogs odds will likely drop more than they should, so good value to back the favourite after the first set if he lost it. Not a golden rule, but go to xscores.com and take a look at the outcome of tennis matches. Not all favourites win their matches 6-0 6-0, sometimes they will lose a first set, and this can give value to back them after the first set. Football I used to back the favourites on a given match when they were ahead in the score, especially on premiership. Avoiding the most obvious games, sometimes you get 1.2 odds with 10 minutes to go. Went wrong a couple of times but was my main source of income for a while, now I find it too risky. I always avoided the ties, backing a tie in the final minutes of a match doesn't seem like a good idea to me. Horses One method that has given decent results, although it does go wrong sometimes obviously, is to choose a horse on a given race to lay, then back in-play if he goes below a certain price. I usually look at horses between 2.5 and 7 and races above 1m. I like to lay favourites, but for this strategy you need some buffer between the horse's odds and your threshold odds, so horses under evens are not good. I lay at a specific price, imagine 4.0 to win 4 pounds (12 pounds liability), and then decide what my stop-loss odds are. I usually use the 1.5 mark, for horses up to 3.0 and 2.0 above that. After the market goes in-play I put a back bet on the horse I layed on stand-by at odds of 1.01 and with the stake equal to the amount of money I would win if the lay went right (4 pounds back bet in the example). 1.01 means I will get matched at whatever odds are best at the time my bet enters the system. If the horse goes below my threshold in-running, in this case 2.0, I fire the back bet. If the horse goes on to win the race I lose 8/8.5 pounds (because I backed at around evens I lose 12 but win 4, so net outcome -8 pounds). If the horse ends up not winning the race, I lose nothing (and neither win), as long as my back bet is the same as the winnings from the lay, because I win 4 pounds from the lay and lose the same 4 pounds from the back bet. I avoid laying above 7 because that means having a high threshold to ensure some sort of stop-loss and I'd be firing the back bet much more often. It's basically a question of personal choice, but below 2.5 I don't think it will work that well either. It can work at almost all reasonable odds, as long as you ensure sufficient buffer for the stop-loss odds. Just my thoughts, would like to hear opinions or personal strategies in the in-play markets Good Luck with your bets Pinho

[A-Team]

Re: In-play Strategy and Opportunities On the subject of tennis I pretty much agree with what you've said. I try to look for the occasions where one break of serve can cause a huge market turnaround. As you said, the best opportunities for this are often when the pre-match favourite loses the first set and relinquishes favouritism as a result. A break of serve for the pre-match favourite early in the 2nd set will sometimes result in the market returning to roughly pre-match odds allowing you to trade out instantly. It's also very likely that you'll get plenty of chances to get out with a small profit if the match goes on serve for several games. You're also right in saying that the market over-reacts to a break of serve very early in the match and produces great opportunities as a result. 2 good examples today where Berdych was about 1.4 pre-match but 1.9 after being broken in his first service game against Youzhny. Gonzalez went from 1.5 to 1.8 and then back in to 1.4 when he instantly broke back against Ferrero. Both went on to win comfortably in straight sets.