STT Game Thoery - ITM vs ROI

[robilaruk]

Disclaimer: I am by no means a statistician or have any superior ability to use excel to calculate stats properly.However, I do have a basic grasp of stats and can write a few formula's that accomplish what i need. Okay, inspired by Foolsgold post here http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=32604 about ROI (return on investment) and ITM (in the money) and Valiants awesome post here http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=32378 and the fact that last month in the £109 short handed STTs I lost close to $700 despite having a decent ITM, I have decided to work on some game theory to try to figure out why. If you are not interested in stats and percentages and ROI and ITM then I suggest you click poker forum now and read a new thread however, if you are interested then STOP READING ANY POSTS FURTHER DOWN THE THREAD RIGHT NOW as I have a pop quiz for you first: Grab a piece of paper and a pen and write down the following two answers. In a 5 handed game assuming you are an above average player who wins half the HU games you play what ITM percentage do you think you need to hit break even? In a full table STT (10 handed) assuming you are an above average player who places 1st/2nd/3rd on an almost equal basis what ITM percentage do you think you need to hit break even? Okay, hopefully you have 2 answers now, I am going to post some spreadsheet analysis/info next Damo

[slapdash]

Re: STT Game Thoery - ITM vs ROI OK. Poker I'm a bit shaky on, but maths I can do. Assuming 70/30 and 50/30/20 prize structures and 10% tournament fee:

In a 5 handed game assuming you are an above average player who wins half the HU games you play what ITM percentage do you think you need to hit break even?

44%

In a full table STT (10 handed) assuming you are an above average player who places 1st/2nd/3rd on an almost equal basis what ITM percentage do you think you need to hit break even?

33%