NFL Preseason Profit Report

[maj69er]

PRESEASON GAMES STARTING THIS WEEK, SO I THOUGHT I WOULD POST THIS ARTICLE AS A STARTING TO POINT TO HELP US! NFL Preseason Profit Report Tony Stoffo July 31, 2006 Let me start off by saying that I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money. In the preseason many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don't care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage. A very important thing to remember for this upcoming preseason it that there will be10 new head coaches this season, so previous preseason trends for these teams are no longer valid. Here are the 10 teams with new head coaches for the upcoming season: 1) Buffalo - **** Jauron 2) Detroit - Rod Marinelli 3) Green Bay - Mike McCarthy 4) Houston - Gary Kubiak 5) Kansas City - Herm Edwards 6) Minnesota - Brad Childress 7) New Orleans - Sean Payton 8) New York Jets - Eric Mangini 9) Oakland - Art Shell 10) St Louis - Scott Lineham Arizona - This will be Dennis Green's third year as head coach of Arizona, and the Cardinals are definitely a strong preseason play now. The Cardinals under Green have won 6 of their last 7 preseason games, and are a perfect 2-0 both straight up and against the spread the last two years in their dress rehearsal game where most of their starters play a good portion of the game. Plus I have to throw in that Arizona is an impressive 4-1 as a dog over the past two preseasons. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Kurt Warner, Matt Leinatt, John Navarre. Plus Rolan Davy and Jeff Otis will see limited action. Atlanta - The Falcons improved dramatically in Jim Mora's second season as head coach going 4-1 against the spread in the preseason. What really stands out for the Falcons in the preseason under Mora is in their dress rehearsal game where in the last two years they have outscored their opposition 60-17, defeating Cincinnati 37-10 and Jacksonville 23-7. This year's dress rehearsal game for the Falcons will be on August 24th where they play Tennessee who lost their dress rehearsal game last year to San Francisco. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Michael Vick, Matt Schaub, D.J. Shockley, Bryan Randall. Baltimore - The Ravens under head coach Brian Billick are just a .500 team against the spread over the past 4 preseasons going 8-8. However there is a very strong trend that can make you some money on the Ravens this preseason. Baltimore has played 4 straight Unders when they play their regulars in week 3 of the preseason. In their third game this preseason the Ravens play against Minnesota. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Steve McNair, Kyle Boller, Brian St. Pierre, Drew Olson. Buffalo - Past results in the preseason have to be thrown out the window for the Bills with new head coach **** Jauron taking over the reigns. However in Jauron's last two preseasons when he was head coach of the Bears back in 02, and 03 he went 2-6 against the spread. Also it should be mentioned that the Bills also hired Marv Levy as their vice president of football operations. Remember Levy coached all those great Buffalo teams that went to the Super Bowl. But Levy never cared about winning in the preseason. With this combination taking over the team makes the Bills a definite play against this preseason. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: J.P. Losman, Kelly Holcomb, Tory Woodbury, Craig Nall. Carolina - Head coach John Fox loves to win preseason games. From the last game of the 2002 preseason to the first game last year the Panthers had won and covered 10 straight preseason games. However last year Carolina finished with a 1-3 ATS mark. But with such an impressive runs of wins look for Fox and the Panthers to get back on track this preseason. Look for this trend to start right away this preseason as the Panthers have won and covered their first preseason game the last 4 years. Also Carolina might be starting another kind of streak having 7 of their last 8 preseason games go over the total. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jake Delhomme, Chris Weinke, Stefan LeFors. Chicago - In Lovie Smith's first 2 seasons as head coach of the Bears a trend has definitely developed in the preseason. In the 9 games the Bears have played 7 of them have stayed under the total. A possible under play this preseason is on August 31st where the Bears play a Cleveland team that has seen 7 of their last 8 preseason games go under the total. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton, Brian Griese, B.J. Symons. Cincinnati - In the 3 years that Marvin Lewis has been the Bengals head coach a very strong trend has formed. The Bengals in each of the past 3 preseasons have lost their first and third game played. This is a perfect 6-0 record in this situation. It's obvious he doesn't care about getting his team ready for their opening preseason game. And with Carson Palmer questionable for the early preseason games, plus Jon Kitna now in Detroit, game # 1 against the Redskins can definitely continue this early trend. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Carson Palmer ???, Anthony Wright, Doug Johnson, Craig Krenzel. Cleveland - The last 2 seasons that Romeo Crennel was the defensive coordinator at New England 7 of the 8 preseason games the Patriots played stayed under the total. Well he brought this trend right over with him in his first year as head coach of the Browns with 3 of the 4 preseason games going under the total. It also should be noted that Crennel also brought over New England's winning ways with the Browns going a perfect 4-0 ATS in the preseason last year. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Charlie Frye, Ken Dorsey, Derek Anderson, plus 3 rookie free agent signings, Campbell, Almond, Hackney. Dallas - Bill Parcells has shown in the past that he likes to win preseason games. Since he has taken over as head coach for Dallas in 2003 the Cowboys are 8-4 against the spread. But the Cowboys have not started fast losing their first game of the preseason all three years that Parcells has been head coach. This year's opener is against Seattle who have won and covered their last 3 preseason openers. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Drew Bledsoe, Drew Henson, Tony Romo. Denver - Head coach Mike Shanahan loves to win preseason games. In the last 4 years the Broncos have gone 11-6 against the spread (3 -1 last year). Shanahan also puts a great emphasize on the Broncos final preseason game going 5-1 against the spread the last 6 years. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jake Plummer, Bradlee Van Pelt, Jay Cutler. Detroit - New Head coach Rod Marinelli has no prior head coaching experience. So the Lions are a sit back and watch this preseason. However Marinelli has been the defensive line and assistant head coach for Tampa Bay the past 10 years. He helped put together the awesome Buccaneer defensive units of the past. With him emphasizing defense and toughness playing Detroit under this preseason might be a way to go. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jon Kitna, Josh McCown, Dan Orlovsky, and Shaun King. Green Bay - With Mike McCarthy taking over as head coach the Packers might be worth a small play this preseason. McCarthy was the offensive coordinator at San Francisco last year and helped them to a perfect 4-0 ATS preseason mark. There he had a young quarterback to work with in Alex Smith. Well the same scenario fits here with Aaron Rodgers getting the majority of the snaps this preseason. The odds makers and general public will overlook the Packers for this reason making them the value play of the preseason. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Brett Favre, Aaron Rogers, plus 3 other QB's that might see limited action, Arth, Martin, and Wrobel. Houston - Since Houston entered the league back in 2002 they are a dismal 4-13 against the spread in the preseason. However with Gary Kubiak getting the head coaching job things will start to change for the Texans in the preseason. Kubiak had been the Denver offensive coordinator under head coach Mike Shanahan for the last 11 years. As we all know Shanahan wins in the preseason, and now Kubiak will bring that winning attitude to Houston. I believe the winning will begin immediately as the Texans in their opener face a Kansas City team that has lost their last 3 opening preseason games. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: David Carr, Sage Rosenfels, Quinton Porter, Matt Baker. Indianapolis - Coming into the 2005 preseason the Colts had faired well in the previous 2 preseasons going 6-2 against the spread. Than last year the Colts lost all 5 of their preseason games. However there was a definite reason for this. For their opening preseason game the Colts had to travel to Japan and the team never recovered playing like a tired football team in their remaining preseason games. I fill the Colts will revert back to their previous winning form this preseason. Plus we will receive some value in the line as the odds makers incorporate last seasons losing preseason record. It is also worth mentioning that before last year's disaster the Colts in their dress rehearsal game the previous 3 years were a perfect 3-0. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Peyton Manning, Jim Sorgi, plus two rookie free agents Betts, and Koral. Jacksonville - The Jaguars were just a .500 team over the past couple of preseasons. However one strong trend sure jumps out at you. Over the past 3 preseasons in their dress rehearsal in game #3. The Jaguars just can't seem to get things going offensively scoring just 6, 9, and 7 points. Obviously all three of these games have gone under the total. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Byron Leftwich, David Garrard, Quinn Gray. Kansas City - New Chiefs head coach Herm Edwards had a very impressive 14-7 ATS mark when he coached the Jets in the preseason. But he will have his work cut out for him as the Chiefs have lost 7 of their last 8 preseason games. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Trent Green, Damon Huard, James Killian, Brodie Croyle. Miami - New head coach Nick Saban and the Dolphins did not cover a game in last year's preseason. With all the uncertainties at the quarterback position with the addition of the ailing Daunte Culpepper and with Joey Harrington's confidence at an all time low makes the Dolphins a play against this preseason. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Daunte Culpepper, Joey Harrington, Cleo Lemon, Brock Berlin. Minnesota - Brad Childress the former offensive coordinator for the Eagles is now the new head coach with the Vikings. Look for the Vikings to play some high scoring games this preseason. With Brad Childress running the Eagles offense the last two preseasons saw the over be the right side in 6 of the last 8 preseason games. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Brad Johnson, Mike McMahon, J.T. OSullivan, Tarvaris Jackson. New England - Just like in the regular season head coach Bill Belichick stresses defense in the preseason. This has created one of the strongest trends that you can make some serious money on this preseason. In the last 4 years the under is an impressive 13-3 in the Patriots last 16 preseason games. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tom Brady, Matt Cassel, Todd Mortensen, Corey Bamlet. New Orleans - The Saints new head coach is Sean Payton, and this will be his first head coaching job. Payton last year was with the Cowboys as their passing game coordinator. Payton was also the offensive coordinator with the Giants when Jim Fassel was the head coach. I feel he failed badly in both these positions and was not a good offensive coordinator. Saying this I don't see the Saints doing much this preseason. Plus with all the new players on the offensive side of the ball having to learn a new system, look for the under to be the right side in the Saints games this preseason. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Drew Bees, Jamie Martin, Adrian McPherson. New York Giants - New head coach Tom Coughlin did not get off to a fast start in his first year with the Giants producing a 1-3 ATS record. But last year turned things around as the Giants won 3 of their 4 preseason games. Look for this up swing to continue this year, especially in their dress rehearsal game against the Jets. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Eli Manning, Tim Hasselbeck, Jared Lorenzen. New York Jets - Eric Mangini takes over as the Jets Head coach this season. This will be Manginis first head coaching job. However he learned everything he knows from Bill Belichick. His last coaching job was as defensive coordinator for the Patriots last season. As we all know Belichick stresses defense in the preseason. When Romeo Crennel left the Patriots last year to take the Browns job this preseason trend continued in Cleveland with the Browns playing 3 of their 4 preseason games under the total. So I look for Mangini and the Jets to play a very conservative style this preseason making the under the way to go this preseason with the Jets. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chad Pennington ???, Patrick Ramsey, Brooks Bollinger, Kellen Clemens. Oakland - After everyone turned down the Raiders head coaching position. Al Davis had to settle for former Oakland head coach Art Shell. This team is just a bad team whether its in the preseason or regular season. So I cant see Shell making any difference in trying to get this team back on the winning track. As for the preseason the Raiders have gone 3-9 against the spread the last 3 years. I look for more of the losing ways this preseason. Also it should be noted that even with their so called high powered offense. All of Oakland's 4 preseason games went under the total last year. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Aaron Brooks, Marques Tuiasosopo, Andrew Walter. Philadelphia - Andy Reid and the Eagles show no trends that we can take advantage of going 8-8 in the preseason over the last 4 years. However 6 of the last 7 preseason games the Eagles have played have gone over the total. Plus with the strong quarterback rotation that they will have this preseason look for this trend to continue. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Donovan McNabb, Jeff Garcia, Koy Detmer, Timmy Chang. Pittsburgh - After researching Cowher and the Steelers over the past 4 preseasons, it was difficult to find any trends that would give us an edge for this year. Their record against the spread over the last 4 years is 7-9. Plus with the Super Bowl hangover and Roethlisberger's recent injuries makes the Steelers a team to stay away from this preseason. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Ben Roethlisberger, Charlie Batch, Shane Boyd, Omar Jacobs. St. Louis - The Rams new head coach this season is Scott Lineham. This will be Lineham's first head coaching job. Over the past 4 seasons he has been an offensive coordinator, three with the Vikings and last year with the Dolphins. The one thing that may give us an edge this preseason is that Lineham is saying that the emphasis this season will be more on running the ball instead of the wide open offense that the Rams have shown in the past. With the Rams working on their running game this preseason makes playing the under the right way to go especially in the early preseason games. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Marc Bulger, Gus Frerotte, Jeff Smoker, Dave Ragone. San Diego - Chargers head coach Marty Schottonheimer rarely uses his star players in the preseason, and has produced just a .500 record ATS the last 3 years. One game that Schottonheimer really doesn't care about is the Chargers opening preseason game. In their last 4 preseason openers the Chargers are a perfect 0-4 against the spread making this one of the strongest preseason trends that you will find. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Phillip Rivers, A.J. Feeley, Charlie Whitehurst. San Francisco - In Mike Nolan's first year as head coach the 49ers were 4-0 against the spread in the preseason. Here is another team that has a strong quarterback rotation setup for this preseason. So I look for the 49ers to again have another winning preseason. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Alex Smith, Trent Dilfer, Jesse Palmer, Cody Pickett. Seattle - The Seahawks head coach Mike Holmgren doesn't put much emphasize in preseason games going 6-10 ATS the last 4 years. One game that Holmgren really doesn't care about is the last preseason game of the year where the Seahawks are 0-4 against the spread the last 4 years. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Hasselbeck, David Greene, Seneca Wallace. Tampa Bay - In the last two years as head coach John Gruden has been a money maker in the preseason going 5-2-1 against the spread. The Buccaneers have also been a perfect 4-0 in their opening preseason game the last 4 years. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chris Simms, Jay Fiedler, Tim Rattay, Bruce Gradkowski. Tennessee - Coming into last years preseason Titans head coach Steve Fisher had won 75% of his preseason games in the previous 5 years. However things started to turn around last year with the Titans going 1-3 against the spread. This team is in a downward spiral having gone 9-23 over the past 2 regular seasons. With quarterback Steve McNair gone and a very weak quarterback rotation remaining. I look for the Titans to have a sub par preseason this year. Also a trend has developed that has seen 9 of the last 12 Tennessee preseason games go under the total. With the way their offense is set up this preseason I highly recommend playing all Titan games under the total this year as this trend is likely to continue. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Billy Volek, Vince Young, Matt Mauck, Cody Hodges. Washington - In Joe Gibbs two years as head coach of the Redskins 1 strong trend has developed that can make us some money this preseason. Gibbs in his return to coaching puts no emphasis in playing defense in the early preseason games. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the Redskins first 2 preseason games of the year. Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, Casey Bramlet.

[TazaD]

Re: NFL Preseason Profit Report Some good info there, maj. I've got a couple of good systems that come into play, more into week 3 and 4...but yeah, I always like betting pre-season. Will be going through this lot for sure. Thanks.