Football Numerical ratings system

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I've created a ratings system to give the most probable outcome 1X2 in any given match, by comparing team performances and several variables. The system is not very complex but I want to use it in a different way than what would be expected. I believe people in general (and bookies I hope!) tend to give too much importance to these ratings, and when there is just a slightly more probable outcome than the others, those analyzing the ratings will tend to give it a bit more importance than what it has numerically, because it is the MOST probable outcome. Of course this depends very much on the parameters analyzed themselves, but generally speaking there could be an edge in going through the less traveled path. Obviously this doesn't mean laying every game , and this does not mean going to an odds comparison website and laying the smaller odds. That's why I'm using my ratings. I'll post selections here for a couple of weeks to see how it performs, and I'm sure I'll have to tweak the parameters and probably set buffer probabilities to decide Back/Lay, eliminate some leagues or bets, etc. Bets will be in the form: Back/Lay Home: Back or Lay the Home team Back/Lay Draw: Back or Lay the Draw Back/Lay Away: Back or Lay the Away Team I'm also working on a similar system for the Over/Under market, but I assume it will only work in leagues with lots of Overs. Just paper bets for now, Starting bank 100 pts, Back Selections with 2pts fixed bet, Lay to win fixed profit of 1pt. Ideas and suggestions more than welcome, and selections for this week to follow shortly. All prices will be taken from Betfair. Good Luck with your bets Pinho, Portugal

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