Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System

[A-Team]

This system applies to ATP tournaments in which the 16 seeded players receive an automatic bye to the 2nd round and simply involves opposing all of them. The theory is that their opponents (the first round winners, obviously) will have had at least one extra game to get used to court conditions and the genral tournament environment (more if they've come through the qualifying rounds) and are therefore more likely to cause upsets than they would be otherwise. In this regard it is similar to the "Value in Qualifiers" system currently being run with great success by Mr. Intensity. As I don't have access to historical tennis odds, this sytem has not yet been properly tested. I have, however, surveyed past results of these tournaments and been encouraged by my findings. I'll include these in a separate post for the sake of tidiness. I am reasonably confident of success and will be backing my selections with real money (albeit small stakes initially) but I repeat, this has not been properly tested and therefore I can't advise others to do the same. I will initially be using a 2 point fixed staking plan on all selections with a starting bank of 100 points. At the moment I won't be setting a price limit although I may do so in future because obviously using fixed stakes and opposing the likes of Federer and Nadal in the 2nd round would be madness. There are 8 tournaments per year with the previously mentioned format and I fully intend to keep this thread as up-to-date as possible. Next up is Kitzbuhel which starts on Monday so stay tuned.

[A-Team]

Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System The evidence: Format: SURFACE Tournament name: Year: Number of Seeds to depart in the 2nd round CLAY Stuttgart: 2006: 11 2005: 9 2004: 4 2003: 5 Kitzbuhel: 2005: 7 2004: 4 2003: 5 2002: 7 OUTDOOR HARD Wahington: 2005: 7 2003: 1 Indianapolis: 2006: 3 2005: 7 2004: 5 2003: 6 New Haven: 2005: 7 Tokyo: 2005: 5 2004: 5 2003: 5 INDOOR HARD Madrid Masters Series: 2005: 3 2004: 7 2003: 7 2002: 8 INDOOR CARPET Paris Maters Series: 2005: 5 2004: 5 2003: 5 2002: 3 I think anything over 5 virtually guarantees a healthy profit (that's 11 tournaments out of 26 tested). 5 could result in a profit with average odds of 2.5 which is quite possible in my opinion (9 out of 26). Anything less (6 out of 26) and we'd need some long shots to bail us out.