A-Team Posted July 22, 2006 Share Posted July 22, 2006 This system applies to ATP tournaments in which the 16 seeded players receive an automatic bye to the 2nd round and simply involves opposing all of them. The theory is that their opponents (the first round winners, obviously) will have had at least one extra game to get used to court conditions and the genral tournament environment (more if they've come through the qualifying rounds) and are therefore more likely to cause upsets than they would be otherwise. In this regard it is similar to the "Value in Qualifiers" system currently being run with great success by Mr. Intensity. As I don't have access to historical tennis odds, this sytem has not yet been properly tested. I have, however, surveyed past results of these tournaments and been encouraged by my findings. I'll include these in a separate post for the sake of tidiness. I am reasonably confident of success and will be backing my selections with real money (albeit small stakes initially) but I repeat, this has not been properly tested and therefore I can't advise others to do the same. I will initially be using a 2 point fixed staking plan on all selections with a starting bank of 100 points. At the moment I won't be setting a price limit although I may do so in future because obviously using fixed stakes and opposing the likes of Federer and Nadal in the 2nd round would be madness. There are 8 tournaments per year with the previously mentioned format and I fully intend to keep this thread as up-to-date as possible. Next up is Kitzbuhel which starts on Monday so stay tuned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted July 22, 2006 Author Share Posted July 22, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System The evidence: Format: SURFACE Tournament name: Year: Number of Seeds to depart in the 2nd round CLAY Stuttgart: 2006: 11 2005: 9 2004: 4 2003: 5 Kitzbuhel: 2005: 7 2004: 4 2003: 5 2002: 7 OUTDOOR HARD Wahington: 2005: 7 2003: 1 Indianapolis: 2006: 3 2005: 7 2004: 5 2003: 6 New Haven: 2005: 7 Tokyo: 2005: 5 2004: 5 2003: 5 INDOOR HARD Madrid Masters Series: 2005: 3 2004: 7 2003: 7 2002: 8 INDOOR CARPET Paris Maters Series: 2005: 5 2004: 5 2003: 5 2002: 3 I think anything over 5 virtually guarantees a healthy profit (that's 11 tournaments out of 26 tested). 5 could result in a profit with average odds of 2.5 which is quite possible in my opinion (9 out of 26). Anything less (6 out of 26) and we'd need some long shots to bail us out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted July 22, 2006 Share Posted July 22, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Nice evidence:ok. I'm sure you will get some big priced ones, good luck mate:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted July 24, 2006 Author Share Posted July 24, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Tomorrow's matches: Luczak v Kohlschreiber(13) Gremelmayr v Rochus(14) Daniel v Pavel(16) Vassallo-Arguello v Youzhny(8) No prices available yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted July 25, 2006 Author Share Posted July 25, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Luczak v Kohlschreiber(13) 2.62 at Coral Gremelmayr v Rochus(14) 2.37 at Pinnacle Daniel v Pavel(16) 2.54 at Pinnacle Vassallo-Arguello v Youzhny(8) 2.11 at Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted July 25, 2006 Author Share Posted July 25, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System 1 winner and 3 losers. V-Arguello lost after holding a 6-0 4-2 lead. I noticed that I've made an enormous basic fractional/decimal odds f*ck-up. With 5 winners average odds of around 2.5/1 are needed for profit not 2.5. I'm not putting any cash behind it now but I'll keep it updated out of curiosity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted July 26, 2006 Author Share Posted July 26, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Massa v Seppi 3.16 at Pinnacle Roitman v Nieiminen 1.15(lay) at betfair Monaco v Gaudio 2.53 at Pinnacle Zabaleta v Chela 1.5 at William Hill Haider-Maurer v Mirnyi 6.6 at Pinnacle Vemic v Horna 2.75 at Pinnacle Koubek v Pahsanski 1.58 at Pinnacle Waske v Verdasco 1.26(lay) at betfair Calatrava v Massu 1.19(lay) at betfair Lapentti v Davydenko 5 at Pinnacle Eitzinger v Calleri 1.2(lay) at betfair Melzer v Robredo 1.26(lay) at betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted July 26, 2006 Author Share Posted July 26, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Luczak v Kohlschreiber(13) 2.62 at Coral Daniel v Pavel(16) 2.54 at Pinnacle Vassallo-Arguello v Youzhny(8) 2.11 at Pinnacle Roitman v Nieiminen 1.15(lay) at betfair Zabaleta v Chela 1.5 at William Hill Haider-Maurer v Mirnyi 6.6 at Pinnacle Waske v Verdasco 1.26(lay) at betfair Calatrava v Massu 1.19(lay) at betfair Eitzinger v Calleri 1.2(lay) at betfair All lost. -18 points for those. Monaco v Gaudio 2.53 at Pinnacle Vemic v Horna 2.75 at Pinnacle Both of these were void under Pinnacle's rules, which require 2 sets to be completed for bets to stand. The d*ckhead Horna retired at a set and 5-2 down to rob us of what would have been a nice win. Now for the better news: Gremelmayr v Rochus(14) 2.37 at Pinnacle. WON: 2.74 pts profit. Massa v Seppi 3.16 at Pinnacle. WON: 4.32 pts profit. Koubek v Pahsanski 1.58 at Pinnacle. WON: 1.16 pts profit Lapentti v Davydenko 5 at Pinnacle. WON: 8 pts profit. Melzer v Robredo 1.26(lay) at betfair. WON: 7.31 pts profit (5% com.) I make that an overall profit of 5.53 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted July 26, 2006 Author Share Posted July 26, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 105.53 Total staked: 32 Number of bets: 16 Winning bets: 5 Losing bets: 9 Void bets: 2 Strike rate : 31.25% Yield: 17.28% Profit: 5.53 Fairly promising start. A decent enough profit on what the research shows to be quite an average strike-rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted July 26, 2006 Share Posted July 26, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Unlucky and still a good profit - very nice mate:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted August 1, 2006 Author Share Posted August 1, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Cheers. Good to know someone is taking an interest. Anyway. On to Washington.... King v Henman(14) 1.14 (lay) at betfair Carlsen v Srichaphan(9) 2.52 at betfair Moodie v Grosjean(6) 3.4 at William Hill Safin v Mahut(15) 1.42 at Pinnacle Stoppini v Agassi(4) 1.14 (lay) at betfair Sweeting v Clement(11) 3.5 at Stan James Kim v Blake(1) 1.14 (lay) at betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted August 2, 2006 Author Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Gremelmayr v Phau(13) 1.77 at Pinnacle Delgado v Murray(8) 1.37(lay) at betfair Massa v Tursunov(7) 6.0 at betfair Zib v Fish(16) 4.5 at Pinnacle Gabashvili v Lopez(12) 1.56(lay) at betfair Muller v Hrbaty(5) 2.38 at William Hill Spadea v Hewitt 1.24(lay) at betfair Lee v Benneteau(10) 1.7 at Pinnacle 2nd seed Roddick withdrew so only 15 bets this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Awesome results so far mate, you've close with a couple more of the huge prices too:eek :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted August 3, 2006 Author Share Posted August 3, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System yeah, it's incredible how often the long-shots have taken the first set. anyway, result time: *King v Henman(14) 1.14 (lay) at betfair Sweeting v Clement(11) 3.5 at Stan James Kim v Blake(1) 1.14 (lay) at betfair Delgado v Murray(8) 1.37(lay) at betfair *Massa v Tursunov(7) 6.0 at betfair Zib v Fish(16) 4.5 at Pinnacle Gabashvili v Lopez(12) 1.56(lay) at betfair *Muller v Hrbaty(5) 2.38 at William Hill *Spadea v Hewitt 1.24(lay) at betfair all lost so -18 points there. Quite a few of them took the first set though. I've marked them with an asterisk because it's worth investigating whether that could be a continuing trend. The better news: Carlsen v Srichaphan(9) 2.52 at betfair. WON: 2.89 pts profit (5% com) Moodie v Grosjean(6) 3.4 at William Hill. WON: 4.8 pts profit Safin v Mahut(15) 1.42 at Pinnacle. WON: 0.84 pts profit Stoppini v Agassi(4) 1.14 (lay) at betfair. WON: 13.6 pts profit (5% com) Gremelmayr v Phau(13) 1.77 at Pinnacle. WON: 1.54 pts profit Lee v Benneteau(10) 1.7 at Pinnacle. WON: 1.4pts profit 25.07 - 18 gives a profit of 7.07 points for the tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted August 3, 2006 Author Share Posted August 3, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 112.60 Total staked: 62 Number of bets: 31 Winning bets: 11 Losing bets: 18 Void bets: 2 Strike rate : 35.48% Yield: 20.66% Profit: 12.60 So far, so good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 3, 2006 Share Posted August 3, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Very good, the Yield is very nice. Good luck with this, keep up the effort, let's hope it pays off! Pinho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted August 20, 2006 Author Share Posted August 20, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Thanks Pinho. This week's tournament in New Haven has the specified format so there'll be some more bets for the system tomorrow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattywallace121 Posted August 21, 2006 Share Posted August 21, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Looking extremely promising mate, keep up the good work! People are watching, don't worry about that!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted August 21, 2006 Share Posted August 21, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System good work...any picks for today ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted August 21, 2006 Share Posted August 21, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Looks very good. Like Mr.Intensitys its using the big odds deficits in tennis compared to the statistical results. I like this a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted August 21, 2006 Author Share Posted August 21, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Thanks folks. There'll be a full set of picks up as soon as all the prices for the 2nd round are available. Hopefully later tonight and early tomorrow if not. One early one because the price looks very nice and might not last. Mahut v Acasuso(6) 2.94 at Extrabet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted August 22, 2006 Author Share Posted August 22, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Seppi v Chela(12) 3.15 at betfair Clement v Davydenko(2) 1.77(lay) at betfair Fish v Ferrer(5) 2.1 at bet365 Wawrinka v Srichaphan(16) 1.73 at skybet Benneteau v Verdasco(7) 1.49(lay) at betfair Berrer v Baghdatis(3) 1.16(lay) at betfair Mirnyi v Calleri(10) 1.7 at expekt Lopez v Bjorkman(12) 1.47 at Pinnacle Simon v Rochus(8) 2.52 at betfair Rusedski v Nieminen(4) 4.0 at Pinnacle Pashanski v Massu(14) 4.26 at Pinnacle Gicquel v Monfils(9) 3.75 at bet365 Vik v Malisse(13) 1.3(lay) at betfair Querrey v Soderling(15) 2.77 at Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted August 22, 2006 Author Share Posted August 22, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System absolute disaster today so far. not a single winner. 9 and 0 in tie-breaks too. unbelievable. last pick looks like throwing money away too: Hidalgo v Blake(1) 9.0 at Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System oops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Stick with it, every system has losing runs, collect more data, who knows, maybe you'll flip your original idea upside down? Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System sorry about that. posted before the end of the last match when it looked like Blake had it wrapped up and I wanted to go to bed. An amazing recovery from Hidalgo who looked dead and buried at least 4 times saves the day from being a complete disaster. Blake traded at 1.01 4 different times during the match I believe. Amazing. Results: The first 15 were all losers except for Mahut/Acasuso which was void through retirement and Lopez/Bjorkman which never took place. 26 points lost. Hidalgo v Blake(1) 9.0 at Pinnacle WON 16 point profit. -10 points overall. could have been a lot worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 102.60 Total staked: 92 Number of bets: 46 Winning bets: 12 Losing bets: 31 Void bets: 3 Strike rate : 26.09% Yield: 2.83% Profit: 2.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted October 3, 2006 Author Share Posted October 3, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System I have to admit I've completely lost faith in this after the terrible results last time but on the other hand I don't think it'd be particularly wise to dump a system that is showing a profit so I'll continue to paper test: ATP Tokyo 2nd Round(Tuesday): Dancevic v Henman(10) 3.75 at bet365 Del Potro v Ginepri(7) 3.35 at Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London_Calling Posted October 3, 2006 Share Posted October 3, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System How about opposing only the bottom 8 seeds (8 > 16) - just a suggestion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted October 4, 2006 Author Share Posted October 4, 2006 Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System I'll look into it but so far most of returns have come from opposing the top handful of seeds at huge prices. Selections for tonight: Massa v Monaco(12) 2.65 at Pinnacle Novak v Murray(4) 3.5 at bluesq Lu v Robredo(2) 5.6 at Pinnacle Suzuki v Srichaphan(8) 5.0 at Coral Udomchoke v Becker(14) 2.75 at Sportingodds Waske v Phau(11) 2.48 at Pinnacle Burgsmuller v Nieminen(5) 5.8 at Pinnacle Schuettler v Goldstein(16) 1.67 at Paddy Power Pless v Lee(9) 2.9 at Pinnacle Iwabuchi v Spadea(15) 3.75 at bluesq Carlsen v Ancic(3) 6.5 at Pinnacle Wang v Tursunov(6) 3.0 at totalbet I'm going to leave out Troicki v Federer. He's available at 100 on betfair and as I'm using fixed stakes this would just be throwing money away really. I'm going to leave Koubek v Moodie alone too. There's been a massive gamble on Moodie from near enough even money to 1.14 on betfair and the bookies seem to have pulled it altogether. Must be either an injury or a fix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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