maxdz Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 I also made own software for automatical defining odds and playing "value bets" on Betfair. Idea is: the software defines odds for tennis pairs and if bookmaker's odds on favorite are less then "software odds" then you have to play against the bookmaker's vaforite ("Lay favorite"). If bookmaker's odds on favorite more then "software odds" then play on bookmaker favorite ("Back favorite"). I'd like to test my system here for ATP hard and clay tournaments. I'm starting with two separate $1000 banks (for hard and clay) and every day every stake will be 1/100 of bank ($10 from the beggining). (Started on Monday in "Betting strategy records" subforum on Bettingadvice, currently have the next records: Clay: Start bank: $1000: Current bank: $1027.36; Stake next day: $10.2 Hard: Start bank: $1000: Current bank: $1004.4; Stake next day: $10 continue in both threads...) Full stat like "Starting bank, Current bank, Total staked, Number of bets, Winning bets, Losing bets, Strike rate, Yield, Profit|or|Loss" will be generated each week after tournaments finished. Betfair comission (5% on winning) was not calculated but will be calculated from now. Update 25-Jul-2006 Started to play with own implementation of Kelly stake. Update 1-Aug-2006 Going back to stake = 1/100 from current bank After the Week 3: Progressive stake: Clay: Start bank: $1000: Current bank: $948,04 Hard: Start bank: $1000: Current bank: $1080.42 Flat 10$ stake: Clay: Set $770; Back $703.8; Yield = -8.7% Hard: Set $530; Back $492.6; Yield = -7.0566% Detail stats: Week 1: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=512673&postcount=28 Week 2: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=519785&postcount=63 Week 3: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=528877&postcount=90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today matches: Amersfoort (Clay) Guillermo CORIA - Sergio ROITMAN (Clay) Betfair coef: 1.41 - 3.28 System coef: Guillermo CORIA 1.26 ( 1.13 - 1.38 ) $10.2 on Coria Novak DJOKOVIC - Tomas ZIB Betfair coef: 1.14 - 7.66 System coef: Novak DJOKOVIC 1.18 ( 1.06 - 1.29) no value Alberto MARTIN - Ruben RAMIREZ-HIDALGO Betfair coef: 1.8 - 2.25 System coef: Ruben RAMIREZ-HIDALGO 1.98 ( 1.78 - 2.18 ) $10.2 on Ramires-Hidalgo Carlos MOYA - Nicolas MASSU Betfair coef: 1.82 - 2.22 System coef: Carlos MOYA 1.76 ( 1.58 - 1.93) no value Stuttgart (Clay) Stefan KOUBEK - Oliver MARACH (Clay) Betfair coef: 2.66 - 1.60 System coef: Oliver MARACH 1.45 ( 1.31 - 1.60) $10.2 on Marach Mariano ZABALETA - Luis HORNA Betfair coef: 2.16 - 1.86 System coef: Mariano ZABALETA 1.55 ( 1.40 - 1.71) $10.2 on Zabaleta Jurgen MELZER - Juan MONACO Betfair coef: 2.13 - 1.87 System coef: Juan MONACO 1.86 ( 1.67 - 2.05) no value Stanislas WAWRINKA - David FERRER Betfair coef: 2.66 - 1.59 System coef: David FERRER 1.99 ( 1.79 - 2.19) $10.2 on Wawrinka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software The basic idea - how to use my coeffs: For ex. u see something like: Alberto MARTIN - Edgardo MASSA Betfair coef: 1.37 - 3.7 System coef: Alberto MARTIN 1.65 ( 1.48 - 1.81) $10.5 on Massa U see that system defined Martin as favorite here with coeff 1.65 The range 1.48 - 1.81 is "system coeff" +/- 10% - the range with "no value". Seems like if bookies and system coeffs on favorite are similar (like not more then 10% difference) the bet on or against the favorite has no value. Then if bookies coeff on favorite is more then (system coeff + 10%) => back favorite, because value is here If bookies coeff on favorite is less then (system coeff - 10%) => lay favorite. Hint: There is no hidden bookies comission in Betfair odds. "Real bookies" have hidden comission in odds that may be 10-20% and sometimes "lay favorites" that is "back outsiders" on that bookies doesn't work because the coeffs have no value (because of that hidden comission). So take care... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today matches: Indianapolis (Hard) Paradorn SRICHAPHAN - Paul GOLDSTEIN Betfair coef: 1.52 - 2.92 System coef: Paradorn SRICHAPHAN 1.68 ( 1.52 - 1.85) $10 on Goldstein Igor KUNITSYN - Robby GINEPRI Betfair coef: 3.22 - 1.45 System coef: Robby GINEPRI 1.26 ( 1.13 - 1.38 ) $10 on Ginepri Xavier MALISSE - Dmitry TURSUNOV Betfair coef: 2.26 - 1.79 System coef: Dmitry TURSUNOV 1.95 ( 1.75 - 2.14) no value Fernando GONZALEZ - Vince SPADEA Betfair coef: 1.34 - 3.94 System coef: Fernando GONZALEZ 1.60 ( 1.44 - 1.76) $10 on Spadea Nicolas MAHUT - Tommy HAAS Betfair coef: 6 - 1.2 System coef: Tommy HAAS 1.12 ( 1.01 - 1.23) no value Jeff MORRISON - Andy RODDICK (Hard) Betfair coef: 12.11 - 1.09 System coef: Andy RODDICK 1.14 ( 1.03 - 1.25) no value Kenneth CARLSEN - Gilles MULLER Betfair coef: 1.94 - 2.06 System coef: Gilles MULLER 1.88 ( 1.69 - 2.06) $10 on Muller Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Hello Max, it seems you have a good software, I just read your posts on the other forum and you have nice results. Let's hope they stay that way for a long time, and since you tested it for the past years it's very promising. I think on the other forum you were betting a percentage of bank and updating the bet amount each day. It may be easier to demonstrate the system if you use a fixed amount of money for your bets all along on the posts. Just a thought, either way good luck and I'll be checking your selections for the next days. Pinho, Portugal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Hello Max, it seems you have a good software, I just read your posts on the other forum and you have nice results. Let's hope they stay that way for a long time, and since you tested it for the past years it's very promising. I think on the other forum you were betting a percentage of bank and updating the bet amount each day. It may be easier to demonstrate the system if you use a fixed amount of money for your bets all along on the posts. Just a thought, either way good luck and I'll be checking your selections for the next days. Pinho, Portugal Yes, I'm going make a separate testing with a fixed stake and indicator like ("total amount money set" - "total amount money got"). Think it will be $10 fixed bet. Also testing with Kelly and some another money-managements in my plan during this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Results for today: Clay: Guillermo CORIA - Sergio ROITMAN 75 46 62 Betfair coef: 1.41 - 3.28 $10.2 on Coria (+ $4.18 ) Stefan KOUBEK - Oliver MARACH 46 46 Betfair coef: 2.66 - 1.60 $10.2 on Marach (+ $6.12) Mariano ZABALETA - Luis HORNA 36 76 46 Betfair coef: 2.16 - 1.86 $10.2 on Zabaleta (- $10.2) Stanislas WAWRINKA - David FERRER 36 46 Betfair coef: 2.66 - 1.59 $10.2 on Wawrinka (- $10.2) Total: - $10.1 Start bank: $1000: Current bank: $1017.26; Stake next day: $10.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 21, 2006 Author Share Posted July 21, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Results for today: Hard: Paradorn SRICHAPHAN - Paul GOLDSTEIN 57 63 76 Betfair coef: 1.52 - 2.92 $10 on Goldstein (- $10) Igor KUNITSYN - Robby GINEPRI 26 76 16 Betfair coef: 3.22 - 1.45 $10 on Ginepri (+ $4.5) Fernando GONZALEZ - Vince SPADEA 64 76 Betfair coef: 1.34 - 3.94 $10 on Spadea (- $10) Kenneth CARLSEN - Gilles MULLER 16 26 Betfair coef: 1.94 - 2.06 $10 on Muller (+ $10.6) Total: - $4.9 Start bank: $1000: Current bank: $999.4; Stake next day: $10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 21, 2006 Author Share Posted July 21, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today matches: Amersfoort (Clay) Alberto MARTIN - Ruben RAMIREZ-HIDALGO (copied from above) Betfair coef: 1.8 - 2.25 System coef: Ruben RAMIREZ-HIDALGO 1.98 ( 1.78 - 2.18 ) $10.2 on Ramires-Hidalgo Carlos MOYA - Nicolas MASSU (copied from above) Betfair coef: 1.82 - 2.22 System coef: Carlos MOYA 1.76 ( 1.58 - 1.93) no value Guillermo CORIA - Agustin CALLERI Betfair coef: 2.54 - 1.65 System coef: Guillermo CORIA 1.85 ( 1.67 - 2.04) $10.2 on Coria Luis HORNA - Juan MONACO Betfair coef: 1.72 - 2.39 System coef: Juan MONACO 1.61 ( 1.45 - 1.77) $10.2 on Monaco Nicolas LAPENTTI - Tomas BERDYCH Betfair coef: 4.57 - 1.27 System coef: Tomas BERDYCH 1.40 ( 1.26 - 1.54) wait for 1.26 on Berdich then lay Berdich Florian MAYER - David FERRER Betfair coef: 3.22 - 1.44 System coef: David FERRER 1.41 ( 1.27 - 1.55) no value Oliver MARACH - Jose ACASUSO Betfair coef: 3.86 - 1.35 System coef: Jose ACASUSO 1.43 ( 1.28 - 1.57) no value Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 21, 2006 Author Share Posted July 21, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today matches: ... Nicolas LAPENTTI - Tomas BERDYCH Betfair coef: 4.57 - 1.27 System coef: Tomas BERDYCH 1.40 ( 1.26 - 1.54) wait for 1.26 on Berdich then lay Berdich ... So, it's time to put on Lapenti: Nicolas LAPENTTI - Tomas BERDYCH Betfair coef: 5.16 - 1.23 System coef: Tomas BERDYCH 1.40 ( 1.26 - 1.54) $10.2 on Lapenti Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 21, 2006 Author Share Posted July 21, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today matches: Indianapolis (Hard) Fernando GONZALEZ - Xavier MALISSE Betfair coef: 1.67 - 2.49 System coef: Fernando GONZALEZ 1.91 ( 1.72 - 2.10) wait for lowering Gonzalez's odds then lay Gonzalez Gilles MULLER - Andy RODDICK Betfair coef: 4.45 - 1.28 System coef: Andy RODDICK 1.52 ( 1.37 - 1.67) wait for lowering Roddick's odds then lay Roddick James BLAKE - Nicolas MAHUT Betfair coef: 1.28 - 4.57 System coef: James BLAKE 1.13 ( 1.01 - 1.24) $10 on Blake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 21, 2006 Author Share Posted July 21, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Matches today: Indianapolis: Paradorn SRICHAPHAN - Robby GINEPRI Betfair coef: 2.37 - 1.72 System coef: Paradorn SRICHAPHAN 1.60 ( 1.44 - 1.76) $10 on Srichaphan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 21, 2006 Author Share Posted July 21, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today matches: ... Fernando GONZALEZ - Xavier MALISSE Betfair coef: 1.67 - 2.49 System coef: Fernando GONZALEZ 1.91 ( 1.72 - 2.10) wait for lowering Gonzalez's odds then lay Gonzalez ... Ups... Seems like everybody is reading my postings - odds on Gonzales are arised. Fernando GONZALEZ - Xavier MALISSE Betfair coef: 1.7 - 2.43 System coef: Fernando GONZALEZ 1.91 ( 1.72 - 2.10) $10 on Malisse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 21, 2006 Author Share Posted July 21, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Results for today: Clay: Alberto MARTIN - Ruben RAMIREZ-HIDALGO (copied from above) 26 26 Betfair coef: 1.8 - 2.25 $10.2 on Ramires-Hidalgo (+ $12.75) Guillermo CORIA - Agustin CALLERI 63 76 Betfair coef: 2.54 - 1.65 $10.2 on Coria (+ $15.7) Luis HORNA - Juan MONACO 25, Horna ret. Betfair coef: 1.72 - 2.39 $10.2 on Monaco ($0.0 - 1 set not finished - voided) Nicolas LAPENTTI - Tomas BERDYCH 16 26 Betfair coef: 5.16 - 1.23 $10.2 on Lapenti (- $10.2) Total: + $18.25 Start bank: $1000: Current bank: $1035.51; Stake next day: $10.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Nice start mate, I'm watching with interest:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 21, 2006 Author Share Posted July 21, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software ... Gilles MULLER - Andy RODDICK Betfair coef: 4.45 - 1.28 System coef: Andy RODDICK 1.52 ( 1.37 - 1.67) wait for lowering Roddick's odds then lay Roddick ... It's time to put on Muller and odds are the same... Gilles MULLER - Andy RODDICK Betfair coef: 4.45 - 1.28 System coef: Andy RODDICK 1.52 ( 1.37 - 1.67) $10 on Muller Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 21, 2006 Author Share Posted July 21, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Nice start mate' date=' I'm watching with interest:ok[/quote'] Thanks. :) Seems like I've already seen kind of your strategy here: "Qualifiers in tennis" http://forum.bettingadvice.com//viewtopic.php?t=28336 It seems to me that it worth to back qualifiers only in their 1st game in main draw (not in 2nd and then). And also LL are loose often in 1st round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted July 21, 2006 Share Posted July 21, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Thanks. :) Seems like I've already seen kind of your strategy here: "Qualifiers in tennis" http://forum.bettingadvice.com//viewtopic.php?t=28336 It seems to me that it worth to back qualifiers only in their 1st game in main draw (not in 2nd and then). And also LL are loose often in 1st round. 2nd round is still good, yielding around 9% this year - but yes, it is a lot worse than the 1st round:tongue2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 22, 2006 Author Share Posted July 22, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today matches: Amersfoort (Clay) Nicolas MASSU - Ruben RAMIREZ-HIDALGO Betfair coef: 1.62 - 2.58 System coef: Ruben RAMIREZ-HIDALGO 1.97 ( 1.77 - 2.16) $10.4 on Ramires-Hidalgo Guillermo CORIA - Novak DJOKOVIC Betfair coef: 2.66 - 1.59 System coef: Guillermo CORIA 1.93 ( 1.74 - 2.12) $10.4 on Coria Stuttgart (Clay) David FERRER - Tomas BERDYCH Betfair coef: 2.25 - 1.73 System coef: David FERRER 1.91 ( 1.72 - 2.10) $10.4 on Ferrer Juan MONACO - Jose ACASUSO Betfair coef: 3.85 - 1.34 System coef: Jose ACASUSO 1.87 ( 1.68 - 2.06) $10.4 on Monaco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 22, 2006 Author Share Posted July 22, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Results for yesterday: Hard: Fernando GONZALEZ - Xavier MALISSE 67 46 Betfair coef: 1.7 - 2.43 $10 on Malisse (+ $14.3) Paradorn SRICHAPHAN - Robby GINEPRI 46 16 Betfair coef: 2.37 - 1.72 $10 on Srichaphan (- $10) Gilles MULLER - Andy RODDICK 26 36 Betfair coef: 4.45 - 1.28 $10 on Muller (- $10) James BLAKE - Nicolas MAHUT 76 76 Betfair coef: 1.28 - 4.57 $10 on Blake (+ $2.8) Total: - $2.9 Start bank: $1000: Current bank: $996.5; Stake next day: $10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 22, 2006 Author Share Posted July 22, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today matches: Indianapolis (Hard) Robby GINEPRI - Andy RODDICK Betfair coef: 3.77 - 1.35 Andy RODDICK 1.42 ( 1.28 - 1.57) no value James BLAKE - Xavier MALISSE Betfair coef: 1.36 - 3.7 James BLAKE 1.43 ( 1.29 - 1.57) no value Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dr.karl Posted July 23, 2006 Share Posted July 23, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Great results on clay so far, I'll be keeping tabs on this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 23, 2006 Author Share Posted July 23, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Results for yesterday: Clay Nicolas MASSU - Ruben RAMIREZ-HIDALGO 61 63 Betfair coef: 1.62 - 2.58 $10.4 on Ramires-Hidalgo (- $10.4) Guillermo CORIA - Novak DJOKOVIC 26 01 Coria ret. Betfair coef: 2.66 - 1.59 $10.4 on Coria (- $10.4) David FERRER - Tomas BERDYCH 63 75 Betfair coef: 2.25 - 1.73 $10.4 on Ferrer (+ $ 13) Juan MONACO - Jose ACASUSO 64 26 26 Betfair coef: 3.85 - 1.34 $10.4 on Monaco (- $10.4) Total: -$ 18.2 Start bank: $1000: Current bank: $1017.31; Stake next day: $10.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 23, 2006 Author Share Posted July 23, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today matches: Amersfoort (Clay) Novak DJOKOVIC - Nicolas MASSU Betfair coef: 1.87 - 2.13 System coef: Novak DJOKOVIC 1.78 ( 1.60 - 1.96) no value Jose ACASUSO - David FERRER Betfair coef: 2.53 - 1.65 System coef: David FERRER 1.99 ( 1.79 - 2.19) $10.2 on Acasuso Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 23, 2006 Author Share Posted July 23, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today matches: Indianapolis (Hard) James BLAKE - Andy RODDICK Betfair coef: 2.75 - 1.56 System coef: James BLAKE 1.62 ( 1.46 - 1.79) $10 on Blake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 23, 2006 Author Share Posted July 23, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today results: Clay: Jose ACASUSO - David FERRER 46 63 76 57 46 Betfair coef: 2.53 - 1.65 $10.2 on Acasuso (- $10) Total: -$ 10.2 Start bank: $1000: Current bank: $1007.11; Stake next day: $10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 23, 2006 Author Share Posted July 23, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today results: Hard James BLAKE - Andy RODDICK 46 64 76 Betfair coef: 2.75 - 1.56 $10 on Blake (+ $17.5) Total: + $17.5 Start bank: $1000: Current bank: $1014; Stake next day: $10.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 23, 2006 Author Share Posted July 23, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Results for the turnaments and surfaces: Amersfoort (Clay) -10 +15.6 +6.7 +7.4 -10.5 -10.5 +4.18 +12.75 +15.7 -10.4 -10.4 11 maches: 6 won, 5 lost, + $10.53 With flat 10$ stake: Set: $110; Back: $121.7; Won + $11.7 = + 10.(63) % Medium coeff: 2.86; Medium win coeff: 2.028; Medium loose coef: 3.86 Stuttgart (Clay) +11.7 +4.5 +17.5 -10.5 +11.34 +4.62 -10.5 +6.12 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 +13 -10.4 -10.2 14 matches: 7 won, 7 lost, - $3.42 With flat $10 stake: Set: $140; Back: $137.4; Lost - $2.6 = - 1.857% Medium coeff: 2.517; Medium win coeff: 1.96; Medium loose coeff: 2.968 Indianapolis (Hard) -10 -10 -10 -10 -9.6 +16.22 +4.32 +6.01 +21.05 +6.4 -10 +4.5 -10 +10.6 +14.3 -10 -10 +2.8 +17.5 19 matches; 10 won; 9 lost; + $14.1 With flast $10 stake: Set $190; Back $214.1; Won + $24.1 = +12.684 % Medium coeff: 2.485; Medium win coeff: 2.141; Medium loose coeff: 2.86(7) For the overall stat see the first posting in the thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 24, 2006 Author Share Posted July 24, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today matches: Umag (Clay) Robin VIK - Guillermo CORIA Betfair coef: 4.33 - 1.29 System coef: Guillermo CORIA 1.32 ( 1.19 - 1.45) no value Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxdz Posted July 24, 2006 Author Share Posted July 24, 2006 Re: One more tennis prognose software Today matches: Kitzbuhel (Clay) Marcos DANIEL - Albert MONTANES Betfair coef: 2.54 - 1.65 System coef: Albert MONTANES 1.59 ( 1.43 - 1.74) no value Alex CALATRAVA - Victor HANESCU Betfair coef: 1.77 - 2.28 System coef: Victor HANESCU 1.33 ( 1.20 - 1.47) $10 on Hanescu Razvan SABAU - Sergio ROITMAN Betfair coef: 2.17 - 1.45 System coef: Sergio ROITMAN 1.56 ( 1.41 - 1.72) no value Juan-Antonio MARIN - Stefan KOUBEK Betfair coef: 2.54 - 1.64 System coef: Juan-Antonio MARIN 1.52 ( 1.37 - 1.67) $10 on Marin Dick NORMAN - Martin VASSALLO-ARGUELLO Betfair coef: 2.49 - 1.67 System coef: Martin VASSALLO-ARGUELLO 1.74 ( 1.56 - 1.91) no value Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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