PokerBarney Posted July 11, 2006 Share Posted July 11, 2006 PokerStars Game #5523061076: Tournament #27915106, $1.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2006/07/11 - 06:38:32 (ET) Table '27915106 2' 9-max Seat #8 is the button Seat 1: onleds (7510 in chips) Seat 2: Flufferd (1970 in chips) Seat 3: Itchyant (3772 in chips) Seat 4: antigov84 (10140 in chips) Seat 5: PokerBarney2 (7265 in chips) Seat 6: Madselle (549 in chips) Seat 7: McClaw 14 (9084 in chips) Seat 8: repomike (8390 in chips) Seat 9: madmatthew (18820 in chips) onleds: posts the ante 50 Flufferd: posts the ante 50 Itchyant: posts the ante 50 antigov84: posts the ante 50 PokerBarney2: posts the ante 50 Madselle: posts the ante 50 McClaw 14: posts the ante 50 repomike: posts the ante 50 madmatthew: posts the ante 50 madmatthew: posts small blind 400 onleds: posts big blind 800 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to PokerBarney2 [Qc Ad] Flufferd: folds Itchyant: calls 800 antigov84: folds PokerBarney2: raises 2400 to 3200 Madselle: calls 499 and is all-in McClaw 14: calls 3200 repomike: folds madmatthew: folds onleds: folds Itchyant: raises 522 to 3722 and is all-in PokerBarney2: calls 522 McClaw 14: calls 522 *** FLOP *** [Jc Tc 4c] PokerBarney2: checks McClaw 14: bets 1600 PokerBarney2??? Where am I at this point? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stereoman Posted July 11, 2006 Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: A tricky FT hand One assumes you're almost certainly behind with two already all-in (assuming they went went all-in with at least king high if not a pocket pair of some sort) and McClaw inexplicably holding AcKc, a ace/king high flush or Ac/Kc with a jack so a club that's higher than your's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guesswest Posted July 11, 2006 Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: A tricky FT hand Almost certainly behind, he's very unlikely to bluff since you're going to see his cards anyway due to the all-in player. If it is a bluff it's terrible play. With what you're getting from the pot you may want to call anyway - with 2 overcards and a straight draw you have 10 outs over 2 cards if a pair is good, but it may well not be. Even the straight might not be good, he bets a callable amount instead of pushing so the flush is a possibility here. I'd probably lay this but if you think top pair would win it, which is really a judgement call based on what you know about McClaw, I'd reraise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stereoman Posted July 11, 2006 Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: A tricky FT hand ..and I wonder why I can't cash let alone get to the FT! it's because I'm scared! :lol :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted July 11, 2006 Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: A tricky FT hand with 2 overcards and a straight draw you have 10 outs over 2 cards if a pair is good' date=' [/quote'] Flush draw may be good too..... For me there are too many outs - it would be very hard for me to lay it down....... you may be drawing dead - but probably not and probably enough outs to give you the odds....... What do you know about this player from earlier hands? What does this very small bet usually signify with him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerBarney Posted July 11, 2006 Author Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: A tricky FT hand McClaw has been fairly loose, but doesn't slowplay, or bluff much (AFAIK). The last hand I remember against him, I was on the CO with him on the SB. I raised (to steal.. :)), and he thought for a long time and folded. I assumed he was taking a stand against me for stealing his blind, so his range could easily be JTs+, 55+. While this doesn't give much to go on, his bet indicates he's at least hit some part of the flop. But.. the odds are good - almost 10:1, plus the implication that if I hit I can double through him. Can I call believing I'm behind? Would you? His possible holdings: A-large: If he has an ace and a face, I'm dead. AK and both my overcards are useless, AQ and we tie, AJ/AT I'm drawing to a Q/K for a pair or a straight. KQ,KJ,KT,QJ,QT,JT: He may have hit a pair on the board, and be drawing to the flush. If so, my A is still good, but my flush/Q may not. -TT: Any pair small than T and I'm ok, with A/K/Q/clubs as outs. TT+: Any pair larger than T and I'm boned, since if he's hit a set of T/J I'm drawing to the K for a straight. If QQ+, then I need an A. So, all in all, I'm pretty shafted. Still... I could possibly have a few outs - overpairs, straight and flush draws. Even without the flush draw I have a decent chance of a K/Q. So.. the question is - can I call, in the knowledge that I'm drawing (probably for all my chips) since I've got great odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guesswest Posted July 11, 2006 Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: A tricky FT hand Like I said, I'd be inclined to lay this, just because there's way too many likely holdings which would make top pair bad if I hit it. The only out I really fancy to win here is the straight, barring some weird outcome like running queens etc. But it's not a question for me of drawing to a hand vs playing a made hand. You have x % chance of winning in either case, if you're drawing it's your chances of hitting your hand, if you have a made hand it's your chances of being outdrawn - but they both amount to the same thing. I wouldn't make the fact that you're drawing any kind of issue in this decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerBarney Posted July 11, 2006 Author Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: A tricky FT hand With hindsight, I wish I'd folded. I couldn't get away from the good odds, but I think as a general principle, drawing to a 20% shot for all your chips is a bad plan. What do you think of the pre-flop play? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guesswest Posted July 11, 2006 Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: A tricky FT hand Nothing wrong with the pre-flop play IMO. Could maybe have raised 1BB less to get the same result, but that's about it - definitely right to raise it. Don't think it was a horrible call post-flop either, is a really tricky hand that you could spend ages thinking through, and with 15 seconds to make the decision is difficult. Will say though, if you do choose to play the hand post-flop I think you should be raising rather than calling, there's a possibility he's put in a feeler bet with mid-pair or something and you might get a fold, if you don't you'd be pot committed anyway. What did he have? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerBarney Posted July 11, 2006 Author Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: A tricky FT hand I was thinking more along the lines of an all-in push pre-flop. With Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted July 11, 2006 Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: A tricky FT hand Barney, I've been there and done the same as you far too often for my liking... so I try to discipline myself in these situations. Even though its painful to do so, if I miss the flop and some one bets into it, I fold. Like Guesswest said, to bluff at a pot where you will see what he has anyway is a terrible play, so you'd have to accept that you've been outdrawn on the flop. Even though a lot of players try to build a side pot regardless.:\ If you are pot-committed (a phrase too often used perhaps to excuse bad play, though not in this example I might add) then really you didn't have the stack for a 4xBB raise, and it should have been an all in pre-flop from you too. Saying that, the pre-flop raise is good, IF you can be prepared to drop these cards if the flop doesn't go your way (I'm not talking about drawing to a flush, you need to have hit your A or Q). If you couldn't then get your chips in pre-flop and cross your fingers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masterplan Posted July 11, 2006 Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: A tricky FT hand i've found calling with marginal pot odds at low limits (still playing $2 stt's) very unsucessful. as although you're playing them, few others are. best waiting for when you hit or are getting well above pot odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerBarney Posted July 11, 2006 Author Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: A tricky FT hand I WAS getting well above pot odds. I needed 5:1 on average, but was getting closer to 10:1 with the implication of doubling through if I hit. Val - I knew he had me beat, but couldn't resist the good odds. It is a nasty situation to be in though, and is best avoided. Raising half my stack is as good as an all-in preflop, which should've been my move. At least then I could call it a bad beat.. instead of playing like a sucker. Preflop: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1826476 pokenum -h ad qc - qs js - ac td Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qc Ad 635480 46.36 654455 47.74 80819 5.90 0.492 Qs Js 430985 31.44 922021 67.26 17748 1.29 0.320 Ac Td 223470 16.30 1077644 78.62 69640 5.08 0.188Postflop: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1826479 pokenum -h ad qc - qs js - ac td -- jc tc 5c Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Jc Tc 5c cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qc Ad 93 10.30 789 87.38 21 2.33 0.115 Qs Js 377 41.75 511 56.59 15 1.66 0.426 Ac Td 412 45.63 485 53.71 6 0.66 0.460 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted July 11, 2006 Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: A tricky FT hand could you not re-shove at this point to drive out the other guy/create a side pot worth winning? Damo PokerStars Game #5523061076: Tournament Itchyant: raises 522 to 3722 and is all-in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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