AFL - Round 13

[Ashtee]

Will post final plays at Sports-Punter Opposing Adelaide at home is not something that comes naturally, however I believe a Geelong win is a decent possibility in this. They appear to have had some motivational and team balance issues thus far and I’m prepared to consider they may be set for some revitalised form. Poor opponents last two in Fremantle and Essendon after blowing a first half domination of West Coast in local conditions. Though, the way they did it in those games strongly suggests to me they are ‘turning the corner’. King in the ruck and Wojcinski back to form improves team balance no end and we now should see the return of perhaps Rooke and Harley. Time for the fresh approach to kick in off the break and maybe a query on how Adelaide will come off it given their superb run of form and that players were instructed to take it easy during the break – perhaps a danger some minds could still be on holiday? My price; Adelaide 4/7 <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Brown to miss again along with B. McDonald. Michael is an important in. Brisbane have enjoyed a nice patch of form and I’m looking for that to subside by about now, particularly considering the lingering Akermanis issue - never good for morale, as we saw with Brisbane’s early form. Carlton have also had injuries erode team strength over recent rounds. They appeared to throw away the last two by using dumb tempo tactics when they really needed to continue attacking – they are trying to improve but struggle for confidence and those tactics won’t help. Surely a good chance they’ll learn from that pair of losses. The upshot is Carlton are in with a good shot and well worth the investment at the big price. My price; Carlton 3.00

Hawthorn’s form tailed off after a promising first month, certainly once the injuries came and most likely partly due to some staleness – they were forward through the pre-season. Karmic-wise, the last start win had much to do with Richmond’s lack of mental energy on the day but did also show Hawthorn depleted but ready to quit a losing habit IMO. Off the break we now find Hawthorn with a host of stars likely to return and the last start form of Franklin adds plenty also. Meanwhile, Saints have merely plodded through the season, showing they at very best are bottom eight quality only. The result over Sydney seems widely applauded however I believe the differing playing styles of the two clubs were the huge factor in those sopping wet conditions. The 13pt loss to Melbourne the week before was also flattering with Melb falling into this tempo nonsense after half time, then of course, despite the 2 x 6 double traveller the Adelaide game put things in perspective, I believe. St. Kilda look to have no significant ins including that they again will be left with a midfield carried by Dal Santo, the injury plagued Ball (will have appreciated break though) and perhaps Goddard showing some form – certainly has made life easier for defenders who once feared the Saints attack. I manage to rate a St. Kilda victory as the slight favourite but am in little doubt that we have overs for Hawthorn. My price; St Kilda 4/5.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 13 Wow...pretty hard to believe I just read that first paragraph, Ashtee! :eek I saw Adelaide open @ 1.38 and nearly fell off my chair! Dropped a bit, but I'll be on the ML at 1.35 or better. I'm happy to take the Kangaroos at 1.65 (maybe even the spread) Friday night. Reasonably even overall stats, but over the last 5 games the Bombers have dropped right off, av. -7 inside 50's, allow a goal every 2.83 entries! (the worst by a fair way), and only kick a goal every 4.87 entries, again worst in the AFL. The Kangaroos certainly aren't the best team going around, but they are quite good at getting the ball first, and if they do that they should be fr too good for Essendon all over the ground. The Kanga's have won the last 4 meetings...all as 'dogs, by 42 last year, 21, 8 & 8...and dominated last year, having 61 inside 50's to just 41! Lloyd also played in that game, had 12 marks and kicked 2.2. I'm actually leaning the other way with the Saints too...again, 1.45 is a reasonable price, imo. Basically, Adelaide will beat a lot of teams by 10 goals this season!!...You said yourself that the Hawks win was more about Richmond. Hawthorn can't score...25 shots last week was the most they've had since Rd. 6...and despite their shallacking last week, the Saints are still a very good defensive team in the small TD. I guess the problem lies in that St. Kilda can't kick a score themselves...kicked 100+ only once since Rd. 4 (v. Carlton)... ...so, I'll be going under whatever number Centrebet throw at me. In their last 5 meetings, Hawthorn have scored 54 (14 shots), 61 (16), 90 (20), 87 (22) & 87 (22). Yeah, Everitt, Crawford and Guerra likely back, but the Saints still should be too strong. Yeah, Lions/Carlton is an interesting one...I was prepared to go 'over' about 250!!..But Brown out, and Fevola "iffy" ** after landing badly last week, now I'm not so sure. Carlton have topped 100 in the last 2 weeks, both against teams that are much stronger defensively than Brisbane...and obviously they were in the game all the way last week...but the bottom line is that they still lost by 19 points...by letting a team who can't score kick 120! In the last 4 meetings, Brisbane have scored 140 (in Melbourne last year), 140, 153 & 124...they have had 33, 36 and 37 shots in 3 of their last 5!! (The other 2 were against Collingwood and Adelaide, 2 of the best defensive teams...which Carlton certainly aren't!). Anyway, not interested at Brisbane @ 1.20...can't trust Carlton...still might be tempted by the over at a decent number. ** Amazing how many serious injuries the week after a "scare". :\ Swans/Freo is another well priced game, imo...Swans last 4 have all been ordinary, but Freo have now taken ordinary to another level! :D I said before the St. Kilda game that Sydney are struggling to score on their own small ground, and that may still be the case against Freo (which is why I won't trust them to cover a spread), but take a look at the home/away Inside 50's... Sydney (at home) av. 58 inside 50's...allow 45 (+13) Freo (away) av. 49, allow 60!...(-11) Now, I don't care how much a team in struggling up forward, they really should be able to get the job done through sheer weight of opertunities! Freo's history at the SCG is also a factor, losing their last 6 there by an av. of 34...including a 38 point loss last year. Swans look good things to me @ ~1.35 The Doggies have to be a fair chance against West Coast, don't they?...Judd back will help enormously, but in their last 7, WC have lost 2 and not won by more than 22...obviously extremely lucky @ Geelong and v. Carlton, and both Melbourne and Collingwood were in the game they whole way until late. Gio back for the Bully's this week, and if there's one team that needed a weks rest!... Dogs have a poor recent record out West, but have been big underdogs in the last 4...were 6.50 'dogs in 2003 and managed a draw (after allowing 2 goals in the last minute :@ :wall )... ...WB won easily late last year by 43...although admittedly at the MCG. I've said all along that the better midfields in the AFL always hurt the Dogs, but I just don't think this Eagle's team is anywhere near as good as people think. They av. just +2 inside 50's in their last 5 games...although +6 at home this season. Dogs are better both forward and back statistically (surprising that they have better defensive numbers!), so if they can get close to the same amount of ball this shold be a close game!...Given the Eagles form, I don't see any reason why it won't be... ...ehh...line looks about right though...might just be some good (and hopefully pleasant!) late Sunday afternoon entertainment. :beer