AFL - Round 12

[Ashtee]

Event	Port Adelaide v West Coast
Selection	West Coast
Strength	10/10
Date	17/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.79 (Back)
Reasoning	Don’t worry about West Coast’s weird form lately. They can be vulnerable on the road (4-0 this year includes win over Adel) together with notorious for under performing to weak opponents - particuarly when they do party games for training. In the meantime Port have looked good in their last three. Then again that’s not hard to do when they were against Hawthorn (injury hit, shot confidence, stale), Carlton and Essendon. WCE with a short injury list although Judd should miss again. Port have a few who may be in some doubt. Certainly Port are playing better now but, just as we’ve seen with Brisbane lately, they should be found short of the mark stepping up to this class. I’ve factored in the possibility of some mid-season flatness for WCE (note: taken quietly pre-season) and that Port may relish the new challenge but the price is still way too high. My price WCE 1/2. Increased stake.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 12 Not sure I can totally agree with this one, Ash...Can't really see West Coast as favs away anywhere. I know Port have had 3 horrible opponents lately, but it's the Eagles that concern me...I don't think their midfield is anywhere near as good as people are making out...and that is magnified by Judd being out. In their last 5 games they have averaged just under 6 more inside 50's than their opp...in fact, they had one less than Carlton last week, and that has to be a huge concern! Port av. just under 5 more per game in their last 5...again, I know it's been crap opp, but they have looked exceedingly good. Also in 4 away games so far, West Coast have av'd just 1 more inside 50 than their opp per game...so a combination of road form and currnet form paints a pretty ordinary picture for the Eagles; for me anyway... Everything looks pretty spot on to me this week... Tempted by Adelaide -9.5, but will wait for a total, as I thinkit could be a very low scoring game. Crows have some big scores recently in the Dome, but only through straight kicking...19.8, 17.9, 18.8 in their last 3. Saints D very good at 'home'...can't score anywhere! Freo/Geelong looks about right...can't trust a poor Geelong (...just on a sidenote...they had an amazing 11 less inside 50's than Essendon last week!!!)... ...but equally can't trust Freo as a fav, as they can't kick a score. Brisbane have definately improved lately...tough to take them without any confirmation of Brown playing tho...even still, he played last season, kicked 5, and they still lost fairly easily. Injuries starting to ctach up with the Dogs...Gio back this week will give them a boost, but looks a tough one to call. Hawthorn are a rabble at present, but I've still got this thing about Richmond... ..Still, the Hawks have av'd 12 less inside 50's than their opp in the last 5, and although Richmond's D is still suspect, Hawthorn certainly haven't got the capabilities to kick a big score. (Av'd just 64 ppg in the last 5!) Actually, now I look, Richmond won by just 4 points in rd. 21 last season, but had 9 more shots and 24 more inside 50's!!! Spida out, damn...looks like the Tiges by a long way. Better jump on that -15.5 now I think.