pedigreechump6 Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Hi, just wondering if anyone could help me with this.... Say I was playing a 4 hand game of poker and I knew all of the four hands, then how do the odds change from pre-flop to post-flop? For example, say the hands are JcJd, 8s5c, Ah5h, and 5d2c, then the probabilities of winning at the end(according to pokerstove) are 53.325%, 10.614%, 28.753%, and 7.307% What I want to know is what are the expected probabilities of each hand after the flop? I realise that there are over 13,000 combinations of flop, but theoretically will the probabilities change on average or will they stay the same? Thanks in advance for any help... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masterplan Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds after thinking long and hard about your question i think you're asking if the probabilities change for any 3 random cards on the flop ... and not any 3 specific cards ... which would just be silly. thankfully my poker calc can do this. HAND STAGE: Flop PLAYER CARDS % Win % Loss % Draw __________________________________________________________ User JC JD 76.166% 23.834% 0.0% 1 8S 5C 2.692% 97.308% 0.0% 2 AH 5H 18.569% 81.431% 0.0% 3 5D 2C 2.573% 97.427% 0.0% as compared to HAND STAGE: Showdown PLAYER CARDS % Win % Loss % Draw __________________________________________________________ User JC JD 53.354% 46.472% 0.174% 1 8S 5C 10.063% 88.09% 1.847% 2 AH 5H 28.044% 70.109% 1.847% 3 5D 2C 6.692% 91.461% 1.847% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chelskired Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds Hi, just wondering if anyone could help me with this.... Say I was playing a 4 hand game of poker and I knew all of the four hands, then how do the odds change from pre-flop to post-flop? For example, say the hands are JcJd, 8s5c, Ah5h, and 5d2c, then the probabilities of winning at the end(according to pokerstove) are 53.325%, 10.614%, 28.753%, and 7.307% What I want to know is what are the expected probabilities of each hand after the flop? I realise that there are over 13,000 combinations of flop, but theoretically will the probabilities change on average or will they stay the same? Thanks in advance for any help... As there is no flop that can compliment all 4 hands to the same degree, the odds will have too change. Won't they? :unsure Or am I mis-understanding the question? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masterplan Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds he's asking the arbitrary odds given an arbitrary flop ... ie ... 3 less cards to come. i was thinking ... what a stupid question for so long before realising this :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chelskired Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds he's asking the arbitrary odds given an arbitrary flop ... ie ... 3 less cards to come. i was thinking ... what a stupid question for so long before realising this :) Phew :D Thank god for that, 1st Sunday for months with no hangover and for a minute wished I had 1 :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedigreechump6 Posted June 4, 2006 Author Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds Masterplan, that is exactly what I was after! Thanks so much! Sorry for not making the question clear enough but it was hard to put into words......for me at least. Out of interest, what calculator are you using? Is it a home-made one or one you purchased? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds The odds are exactly the same. The chance of winning pre-flop is the average, over all flops, of the chance of winning post-flop. I can't quite figure out what your calculator is calculating, Masterplan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds Ah, I think it's probably calculating the probability of winning if there are only two board cards, and everybody has to make do with only four cards to make a poker hand ... so flushes, straights and full houses become impossible? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masterplan Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds no, i think its the probability of winning based on just the 5 board cards, and not the turn and river. so straights and flushes are still possible, but not probable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedigreechump6 Posted June 4, 2006 Author Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds slapdash, if this is the case, would you say that the chance of winning pre-turn is the avergae, over all turn cards, of the chance of winning post turn? This is definitely not the case as I have tried this manually using my calculator inputing each of the 44 possible turn cards and the probabilities DO change. So surely a similar outcome would happen for the flop? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds no' date=' i think its the probability of winning based on just the 5 board cards, and not the turn and river. so straights and flushes are still possible, but not probable[/quote'] Not sure I understand. Which 5 board cards, if there's no turn or river? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds slapdash' date=' if this is the case, would you say that the chance of winning pre-turn is the avergae, over all turn cards, of the chance of winning post turn?[/quote'] Yes. 44 possible turn cards? After the flop, an odd number of cards have been dealt, so there are an odd number of possible turn cards, however many players there are. Can you describe exactly what you calculated? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds Not sure I understand. Which 5 board cards' date=' if there's no turn or river?[/quote'] I think I understand now. You're calculating the probability that you will be ahead after the flop? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedigreechump6 Posted June 4, 2006 Author Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds sorry about that slapdash, I meant 41 possible turn cards basically i used my calculator and inputted 4 hands and the flop, then I put in each of the remaining 41 cards as a possible turn card and recorded the probability it gave of each hand winning. On average the probabilities do change after the turn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedigreechump6 Posted June 4, 2006 Author Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds btw masterplan, which calculator do you use? I know I have already asked but i guess you might have missed it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds Well, to calculate the probability of winning after the flop, you count the number of turn/river combinations where you win and divide by the total number of turn/river combinations (which is 41*40 = 1640). To calculate the probability of winning after the turn, you count the number of rivers where you win and divide by the total number of rivers (which is 40). If you take the average of this probability over all possible turns, you just add up all the individual probabilities and divide by 41 (the number of possible turns). But this will give you the total number of winning turn/river combinations divided by 40*41 ... which is exactly the same as what you get from the pre-turn calculation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedigreechump6 Posted June 4, 2006 Author Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds slapdash, your logic is unquestionable, and after looking at my results more carefully I can confirm that you are correct with regards to the pre and post-turn scenario. So this is the same with the flop then? If so, I wonder what masterplan's calculator is telling us? It's a shame I cant test this without having to input every flop combination manually.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masterplan Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds i use a java based calc called PokerOdds2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chelskired Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds slapdash, your logic is unquestionable, and after looking at my results more carefully I can confirm that you are correct with regards to the pre and post-turn scenario. So this is the same with the flop then? If so, I wonder what masterplan's calculator is telling us? It's a shame I cant test this without having to input every flop combination manually.... Try http://www.calculatem.com/index_g.html?keyword=poker+odds+calculator&g=1 mate......but SHhhhhhh ;) Oh, or http://people.ucsc.edu/~tbabb/programs/pokerodds/ SHhhhh again lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedigreechump6 Posted June 4, 2006 Author Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds I think I might have worked out the meaning of masterplan's odds. The program gives you percentage probabilities and you can choose from "deal to flop", "deal to turn" or "deal to showdown" and my understanding of it is that "deal to flop" actually tells you the probabilities of each hand being the best at this one stage, NOT the probability that it will go on to win in the showndown. So the pair of jacks has a higher chance of being the best hand after the flop than after the showdown which makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedigreechump6 Posted June 4, 2006 Author Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds In fact, here is the quote from the program itself: "Finally, decide what stage of the hand you want the odds to reflect. The default is "Showdown," meaning that the statistics generated are the probability that a given event will happen at or before the showdown. If you choose an earlier stage in the hand, such as the Turn or the Flop, then the simulation will NOT deal out community cards past the specified stage, and the generated statisitics represent the probability that a given event will happen AT OR BEFORE the specified stage. If you've put more cards on the table than allowed at the stage you've chosen, PokerOdds will generate statistics for the LATER stage. At the bottom of the results chart, a warning will be displayed." I am now more convinced than ever that slapdash is correct and that the odds, on average, do not change from round to round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masterplan Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds if that wasnt the question you were asking ... then surely we're back to the silly question again, given 3 cards have come and 2 are yet to come is the same as given 5 cards have come and none are yet to come, or that 4 cards have come and 1 is yet to come, or that none have come and 5 have yet to come, theyre all going to be a single random arbitrary card, doesnt matter which stage you pick, the odds will be identical Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gizdalord Posted June 4, 2006 Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: Pre & post-flop odds Um could you send me your poker calculator somehow? :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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