Mlb 4/6

[Juuso]

I'll take one early bet, because of the possibility of odds dropping. Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals Cubs 2.32 (Pinnacle) 5 units CHI: RHP Greg Maddux (6-4, 4.32 ERA) STL: RHP Jason Marquis (7-4, 4.75 ERA) I find this price excellent value. Albert Pujols injured himself yesterday and will most likely be missing 5-6 weeks. Pujols is by far the best batter in the league and there just isn't that much power in the Cards batting lineup outside of him. The team ranks 9th of 16 teams in the National League in homeruns, total of 55 and Pujols have hit league leading 25 of them by himself. He has factored in clearly over 1/3rd of Cards Runs either scoring them or hitting the guys home. Quite telling stat about his importance is in: 32 of their 34 wins Pujols have hit or scored at least a run. There is no other guy who could make bigger difference for his team. Their pitching is very good, but without Pujols this lineup should find it very hard to play even .500 ball while he is gone. Cubs are not a great team, but are showing signs of improvement and hitting the ball well lately. The new acquisition Phil Nevin hit a homerun in his first full start in his new team and looks like to be an important addition bringing in some pop in the bat. Cubs have played very well against the Cardinals in the past few years. This year they hold a 6-2 H2H edge and after winning 2 first games of this serie, is trying to go for a sweep. Pitching i find quite equal today. Both pitchers are pretty good, but have had some up and down games this season. These pitchers went h2h in April 23rd at St. Louis, Maddux winning by tossing 7 shutout innings while Marquis allowed 4 runs in 6 innings. All in all, sweeping a team on road is never an easy task, but i just can't see any advantage for Cardinals without Pujols. Their bats have been slumping for past few series and Cubs are looking to start a better part of their season after a cruel month. I'll take my chances with the Chicago's North-siders.

[Marcus0000]

Re: Mlb 4/6

Sport	MLB
Event	San Diego (Young) at Pittsburgh (Santos)
Selection	San Diego (Young)
Strength	8/10
Date	04/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Olympic Sports @ 1.83 (Back)
Reasoning	I must say I was very impressed watching Young pitch in his last start against Colorado. Held a no hitter till the 8th inning where he gave up a double to lead off that inning. But he collected himself and got through the 8th inning without even letting the leadoff double score. Now Young in this game gets to pitch against the organization that originally drafted him and 2 years later traded him saying they didn't feel he had enough potential. While Young says in the newspapers that he has no ill-will to the Pittsburgh organization for that, I'm sure in the back of his mind he still wants to go out there and show them they were idiots for giving up on him. Young is 4-3 on the year with a 3.80 ERA. On the road this year in 5 starts Young is 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA. And in day games this year he is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in 2 starts. I'll be the first to admit it's hard to figure out what Santos will come out with in games. Sometimes he is really good and sometimes he is just horrible. But the major thing is his bad games are outweighing his good games as shown by his 4.94 ERA. In his 6 games pitched at home this year he is 2-2 with a 6.04 ERA.

[Marcus0000]

Re: Mlb 4/6

Sport	MLB
Event	Washington (Armas) at Milwaukee (De La Rosa))
Selection	Washington (Armas)
Strength	8/10
Date	04/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 1.84 (Back)
Reasoning	Its always hard to bet on a sweep (expecially if your betting on the road team to sweep a home team) but Milwaukee is playing horrible right now and this pitching matchup doesn't help them any. Armas (5-3, 3.67) is on the mound for Washington. He is having a good year this year and has kept his team in the majority of the games he has pitched in this year. On the road he is 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA in 6 starts. He faced Milwaukee one time last year and only gave up 2 ER in 7 innings. He is opposing a guy who is barely good enough to be in the bullpen let alone a starter in Jorge de la Rosa. Milwaukee in 2004 brought him up for the first time and had him start 5 games and he was horrible. So last year they decided to put him in the bullpen instead and he was still pretty bad. This year he started the year in the bullpen and was off and on (like usual) then because of injuries made him a starter again last week against Pittsburgh. He lasted 3 innings and gave up 6 ER. Washington has been hitting lefties very well all year and they will be seeing one that as shown throughout his career can be hit hard. Milwaukee has nothing going right as shown last night by them actually having a lead going to the 9th and their closer blowing the save and them losing yet again. And with this pitching matchup and how better Washington has been playing of late I think Milwaukee's misery will last one more game.

[Marcus0000]

Re: Mlb 4/6

Sport	MLB
Event	MLB Double Bet
Selection	White Sox (Buehrle) and Toronto (Chacin)
Strength	4/10
Date	04/06/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Olympic Sports @ 2.55 (Back)
Reasoning	I like both to win very much so instead of playing the low odds on both I'll do them both in a double. Tampa Bay are another team in a skid right now as they are only 2-8 in their last 10. Toronto has hit Waetcher very well the times they have seen him. Chacin hasn't had that great of a season so far but he has had good success facing Tampa Bay and Toronto is doing very well in providing the offense to back him this year even in games he isn't his best. Buehrle as known is one of the top pitchers in the MLB. He has faired very well against Texas and hasn't given up an ER to Texas at home since 2002. He's opposing a rookie pitcher who I still don't think is that great even tho he shut out Seattle (who hasn't when I bet on Seattle). For me a pitching mismatch and a great chance on a White Sox win.