Mlb 2/6

[Juuso]

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals Cubs 2.87 (Pinnacle) 4 units CHI: LHP Sean Marshall (3-3, 5.03 ERA) STL: RHP Sidney Ponson (4-0, 2.92 ERA) Suberp odds on Cubs imo. Opening number was 2.67 and there has been a big change as the public is hammering the Cardinals. Cubs just acquired Phil Nevin from the Rangers, adding some power to their lineup and while his BA isn't excellent, he has hit 9 homeruns this season and drove in 31 runs for the Rangers. This might sound strange at first glance, but the biggest factor taking this for me is Sidney Ponson, who is very overrated right now and it shows in the odds. His ERA and W-L record looks very good, but are deceiving. He is far from overpowering or a dominant pitcher and statistically he is a very average career pitcher and the numbers that gives the real picture of his performance has been even slightly worse than previous years. Let's look at his numbers in depth: WHIP=1.32, SO/9=4.13, HR/9=1.21, BB/9=2.91, IP/GS=5.28, H/9=9.0. So, basically he doesn't last deep into games, has pitched only 34.2 inings this season averaging a little bit over 5 innings a game, has allowed 9 hits per 9 innings and walks about 3 batters per 9 innings. He has done a good job limiting damage with runners in scoring position, but these are not the kind of numbers that a pitcher can maintain a 2.97 ERA with for long and suggests he has had plenty of luck. Ponson had a 20 day break before his last game, in which he allowed 2 runs on 7 hits at SD on April 27th. Statistically Sean Marshall has been better, despite having 2 runs higher ERA. His comparable numbers are: WHIP=1.30. SO/9=6.37, HR/9=0.67, BB/9=4.36, IP/GS=5.96, H/9=7.32. He has pitched 43 innings this season and only gategory he has a worse number is walks allowed per 9 innings. He has been very inconsistent, being really solid at home and bad on road with an 1-2 record and a 9.00 ERA but has shown pretty good stuff and has a lot of potential. Cardinals have the home edge and the better lineup, but they haven't been too hot in last 6, going 3-3 and in their last series vs. Houston scored only 10 combined runs in 3 games. Cubs have looked better offensively lately, winning 2 of last 4 and scored 29 combined runs in last 4. Cubs have done well against the Cardinals in the h2h series last 2 seasons and holds a 4-2 edge this year. Losing Derek Lee to injury has really hurt their batting game, but recent addition Tony Womack has hit really well and it remains to be seen if Phil Nevin can do something in his first start as a Cub. I think this could be a very close game and see a lot of value in the Cubbies price. Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians Indians -1.5 2.80 (Mansion) 4 units LAA: RHP Jered Weaver (1-0, 0.00 ERA) CLE: RHP Jason Johnson (3-4, 5.80 ERA) Indians is a team i had high expectations of before the season started. They've had a lot of ups and downs and has been very inconsistent most of the early season, but has looked really good lately. Hitting the ball really well and winning 4 of last 5 and just took 3 straight against a a solid White Sox team. Their Homestand continues with a 3 game set against the Angels. Angels have had a lot of problems this season. They have played much better lately, but still have a lot of injury problems with the pitching staff and they've lost some key players from their lineup since last season, making their batting game considerably weaker. Cleveland has the best batting average in the American League of .290 BA (.363 OBP) and Only Yankees have scored more runs than them. Angels are 12th in batting average, .252 BA (.309 OBP) and only Tampa and Kansas have scored less runs than them. Indians are 16-11 at home while Angels are 11-16 on road. Pitching in this game is unpredictable. Angels Jered Weaver is a rookie making his second start of the season. He looked really good in his season debut against the Orioles, tossing a 7 inning shutoout allowing 3 hits, striking out 5 and walking 1. I give him a lot credit for that, but facing a baltimore team that has had a poor road form this season is a little bit different than facing one of the more potent offenses in the league on road, who just hammered Jose Contreras and scored 12 combined runs yesterday. Indians Jason Johnson is a pitcher you never know what you're going to get from. After being solid the whole April posting a 3.41 ERA, he struggled the whole May alllowing a 9.13 ERA, but threw a great game last time out shutting down the Tigers at Detroit for 6 innings, allowing 6 hits, striking out 2 and walking nobody. From MLB.com: "Johnson said the key was that he kept both his sinker and slider down. During his recent struggles, he said his pitches have been elevated. Tiger batters swung and missed at his slider a lot." Indians bullpen has also been really good lately, so as long as a Johnson can throw decent game i think the Indians should cover the runline. Jered Weaver has a lot of talent, but i'm taking my chances against him. Expecting Indians bats to be sizzling after the strong performance yesterday. They have gained some momentum right now and should be hard to beat at home.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Mlb 2/6 Just one bet for the moment as seem to be having problems with mlb.com.(and ESPN now!) BOS @ DET DET series against the Yankees was a little inconclusive. 3-1 to the Yankees yet 1 of the Yanks wins was a 1 run game (if I remember right)and another went to extra innings. This was a somewhat weakened Yankees lineup though. Despite all that DET still look like a team that may pressure for post season baseball. Rogers is pitching tonight. After a great start , reaching 7 wins before anyone else, he's had a few problems in his last few outings. Schilling has just joined the 200 win club and is pitching as well as he ever has. Both starters have similiar records, Schilling 8-2,3.93. Rogers 7-3,3.76. The key here will be runs. DET look at times to struggle to manufacture runs and rely a lot on the big hits. Saying that they have a bottom of the lineup which knows how to hit a ball. If you're facing BOS at the moment, scoring runs is something you're going to need to do. Why?? Manny Ramirez. The guy is on fire at the moment and when Mannys hot it could last for weeks. Through in Big Papi and the rest of the lineup and you're looking at potential big numbers. BOS (-1.5) to win 2.25 @ Pinnacle