Heineken Cup Play Offs - Dragons v Parma Overmarch

[DAC]

Well, I clicked on the the cap this morning and was vaguely puzzled to see that Dragons are -29. Our starting XV is reasonably strong but our replacements are basically academy and Welsh Premierships players, not ideal should anything happen to the guys up front. Also, our hooker is out and winning lineout ball is going to be vital Dragons Starting XV Gareth Wyatt, Gareth Chapman, Hal Luscombe, Ceri Sweeney, Nathan Brew, Craig Warlow, Gareth Baber, Adam Black, Andrew Brown, Rhys Thomas, Ian Gough, Luke Charteris, Rhys Oakley, Jamie Ringer, Michael Owen © Replacements Gethin Robinson, Dai Maddocks, Bryn Griffiths, Will Thomas, James Ireland / Alex Walker, Scott Williams, Aled Thomas. Overmach are a good, strong and passionate side and are not to be underestimated at all, the Italian league is coming on in leaps and bounds and Italy were very unlucky not to gain more points in last years 6 Nations, the Squad is littered with Italian Internationals plus 2 regulars from the USA and 2 more from the Argentinian set up. The important thing is that they will be coming to Rodney Parade looking to give it their all in this one off game. Us fans are definately nervous, never mind the -29 cap - This is a game we can defiantely lose. Dragons Last 6 Results:

15/04/2006	L	10 - 15	Connacht	The Sports Ground	CL
19/04/2006	L	13 - 18	Cardiff Blues	Rodney Parade	CL
22/04/2006	L	17 - 36	Llanelli Scarlets	Stradey Park	CL
28/04/2006	W	32 - 18	Glasgow Warriors	Rodney Parade	CL
13/05/2006	L	11 - 37	Edinburgh Gunners	Rodney Parade	CL
26/05/2006	L	5 - 43	Border Reivers	Netherdale Stadium	CL

The last two games have seen us ship 80 points against two very average sides, ok, so we may have had one eye on this game but rugby results do speak for themselves. On the plus side there should be a great crowd with the tickets being put on sale 12 days ago starting at £1.00 and going up £1.00 per day until today (Half price for us season ticket holders) There are also good things being heard from our camp.......but Paul Turner said the same thing against Borders and we got thumped. I really do think the cappers have just looked at the basics of this game ie, Celtic League v Italian S10 and have not looked at the nuts and bolts My bets are as follows: Parma + 29 @ 10/11 Parma outright @ 11/1 (small stakes) Word of Warning It's never wise to bet on any event concerning your own team and their is a chance I'm being overly pessimistic after a terrible season following the Dragons Wish us luck:hope

[DAC]

Re: Heineken Cup Play Offs - Dragons v Parma Overmarch As an aside, I would have capped this at +16.