Backing 'No more goals' when the match nears the end

[pinkisntwell]

Last night on Poland v Colombia on 78 mins score 0:2 the odds for "no more goals" was evens on BF. I staked some money and there were some chances afterwards with the Polish finally scoring on 93 mins. What does everyone here think? Did I make a value bet? Isn't evens way too high odds at that point? I think I've read that on about 34% of matches there's at least one goal from 80 mins onwards. Here the bet was placed at 78 mins so we have to go to about 40% or something. This gives fair odds of 1.66 for "no more goals". This was an under 2.5 goals favoured match too I believe (second colombian goal was scored by the keeper, freaky occurence), so that has to go to about 1.5. Opinions? I do want to keep backing that kind of bet on matches to come.

[traf]

Re: Backing 'No more goals' when the match nears the end How about backing no more goals at 75 mins and laying it off at 85 mins?