AFL - Round 10

[Ashtee]

Final bets will be posted at Sports-Punter Fremantle are an entitled solid favourite for this but Richmond are not out of their depth. We see Richardson and probably Deledio out for Richmond while at Fremantle McPharlin should return for the injured Thornton. Richmond now have a short injury list with several players becoming available the last couple of weeks. Richardson may not be that greatly missed when you consider the form Simmonds is in and Simmonds with that local knowledge slots 6.1 rather Richardson’s 1.6 and three OOB. Some talk Brown may play. First up we can get 3.1 from him also. Richmond go in with plenty confidence off the last two. The poorly coached Fremantle as such a short favourite are always a lay-able proposition. Taking a look at Fremantle’s recent matches. Bris - blown away by a team who did exploit their peripheral style (Richmond, while not as in that same Mathews mould, were noticeably good in the nose under the pack department last two matches). Defeated Kangas - Richmond are a superior opponent. Melb - blown away. WCE - good scalp for sure, however WCE were significantly down on strength. St.K - was a good win but an overrated opponent who weren’t firing, and Frem had a bit stronger line-up then. Fremantle were forward in condition during the pre-season whereas Richmond were deliberately held back, so further solid form by Richmond is very possible. My price; Fremantle 1/2.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

I can only credit Port one game of significant merit thus far. Even then it was a narrow home win over a weakened St. Kilda. Of course, the win over Essendon was between two depleted teams, as swish as Port may have appeared at times (Ess gave up mid third). Carlton also easily accounted for Essendon. The return of Chad Cornes sways me to make Port the narrow favourite. They do travel (to same venue) again, although an eight-day break provides some respite. Carlton also have eight-days following the Adelaide trip. Tredrea obviously carrying an injury and I believe the ‘04 premier is overrated here, while Carlton off two floggings and at home do return to their own class. My price; Port 9/10.

Melbourne are travelling nicely at present. These days they have an ideal mix of blue and white-collar players. Saints cannot afford the loss of Hayes, as midfield depth is not as great for them thus far. Melbourne now with a short injury list. Saints win was excellent over the outclassed Blues but failed to put away the Kangaroos LW, which is more in keeping with their form TS (Melb v Kangas should not be judged in the same light). Saints had a tough schedule previous to the Carlton game, which could account for some of that insipid form, however I believe Melbourne have the upper hand for this game despite being off the Perth road trip. My price; Melbourne 1/2.

Judd is out, however West Coast are very solid throughout the list and a highly focussed team who should be aware that they were caught flat last year when beaten here. In three away games so far WCE defeated Adelaide by 2, defeated Kangaroos (Canberra) by just 24 and defeated Essendon (Dome) by just 21. Geelong will be strongly fancied given the kang and Ess results, however in both I felt they were caught a little flat yet were able to turn on the after burners when needed. I’m looking for them to be switched on early this time. Cats should welcome back a couple of players but it worries me to much that they continue not to get the best out ofthemselves – for whatever reason. Two bits of karma may possibly also be of significance? 1/ The sacking of their fitness trainer – a club unity issue. 2/ The comments Thompson made through the media just prior to the start of season regarding his expectations for success – not good psychology. So far, no sign of sleet and snow for the IS visitors.. My price; WCE 8/13.

Essendon may possibly recall some experience however Sheedy has already declared he now needs to focus on turning over the ‘kids’, and leaving them on the ground. Hird listed as still a week or two away. Edwards should return for Adelaide. Adelaide have easily covered this number against Carl, Kang, Port (in the rain), WBD. All superior opposition to the present Essendon. Adelaide are a very professional unit who consistently perform. Had slight form lapse to Melb Rd-3 then switched on again for next four weeks before an inevitable slip up (6-day double traveller) to Rich (7-day) just two games back. Essendon travel on a 6 x 6 and will find it tougher here to provide the same challenge they gave to WCE (who are prone to struggle at TD and not really a side that consistently buries weak opponents). Chances are Adelaide that play with enough focus to cover.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 10 Totally agree with most of that Ashtee. Damn Richo getting injured...I was looking forward to backing Freo as a high teen-low 20 point fav this week...but yeah, 1.30 does look a tad slim. Richond have lost their last 6 @ Subi...27 last season v. Freo, and 23 in 2003, so another loss in the 20's wouldn't surprise at all. Freo's problem has been their lack of scoring (haven't topped 100 since rd. 3), but Richmond have the league worst D (allowing a shot every 1.77 entries) so that could be the answer... The Tiges still allowed 30 shots at goal last week despite winning (Geelong kicked 0.9 in the last...well, a couple were rushed)... ...I think I might be a touch supersticious here and take -22.5 if I can get it. At this stage I'll be looking at Sydney -20.5...can't see any reason to jump off the wagon now against a pretty ordinary Kangaroo team. Collingwood -15.5...Brisbane's last 3 wins have been against nothing...their road form is still horrible, despite belting a very ordinary Port. And yeah, Adelaide should win by loads, but don't like taking them on big spreads...they have a horrible tendancy to come out and kick 9.20 or something similar when I do! :@