Mr Intensity Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? one thing its clear , we must take away the factor luck in the long run and this is with mathematics , the problem is that i had very bad teachers and i want learn statistics to make profit. In betfair its "easy" make money in the short run thanks to back and lay but in the long run you lose (i lose manchester-sunerland much money) but i Barcelona - arsenal i get good profit . So maybe use leaguepad and learn equations and statistics. I'm not really sure what you're trying to achieve mate:\. Are you looking for something to help you make selections, or to make selections for you? Or is it to help with money management type of stuff as you mentioned losing a lot on one match? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodfren Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? one thing its clear ' date=' we must take away the factor luck in the long run and this is with mathematics , the problem is that i had very bad teachers and i want learn statistics to make profit. In betfair its "easy" make money in the short run thanks to back and lay but in the long run you lose (i lose manchester-sunerland much money) but i Barcelona - arsenal i get good profit . So maybe use leaguepad and learn equations and statistics.[/quote'] I am really not sure why your winnings has something concern with bookie or betfair? Why is back and lay make you loss in the long run. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Betfairbetting Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? You still can't see the big problem. It is good someone to try to define what means for him "Team A has 70 % chances to win this game" and then I will try to show the problem again. By the way the "long term" is a big problem too because nobody can make 1 000 000 000 bets during his life. Actually if you make 200-300 bets per a month /which I can do with hit rate about 65 %/, this means about 3 000 bets per a year, i.e. let us say 100 000 bets per 30-35 years. And there is no guarantee that this will be enough for your "value betting" profit :))) And most of the statistics rules are valid in infinity but as I said nobody can bet in infinity. And about: "let us imagine" - to say that this is impossible is too naive. Statistics is based on the observations mainly, first are the observations then are the rules. And if there is no rule for something this doesn't mean that this thing doesn't exist at all. And to say: in a long term to have a profit means that you have taken value bets - it is simply wrong. For positive ROI is enough your hit rate multiplied by your average winnings odds to be bigger than 1. No matter your bets have been value bets or not. And I showed with my example that you can make profit with non value bets if you have high enough hit rate. Anyway, first try to define what means "Team A has 70 % chances to win this game". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? And to say: in a long term to have a profit means that you have taken value bets - it is simply wrong. For positive ROI is enough your hit rate multiplied by your average winnings odds to be bigger than 1. No matter your bets have been value bets or not. And I showed with my example that you can make profit with non value bets if you have high enough hit rate. In the long term 'hit rate' tends to the true probability and thus you are proving the value betting theorem;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? No, you are the one who's not getting it, i suggest you lookup the basics of statistical mathematics. Your "example" shows nothing as it is a figment of your imagination totally unrelated to what happens in reality. Got nothing to add here, good luck to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? except to say thanks to Mr I for pointing out the obvious :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Betfairbetting Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? Yeah, again "long term" , maybe 1749744 years and everything will be as you say and you will begin to win from value :))) The problem is that obviously nobody here even doesn't know that there are different definitions /conceptions/ for the word 'probability' and you work with a wrong one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? :sad "value betting" means you make a profit on each and every bet you place, otherwise you wouldn't even put the bet on, howmuch value can be measured by the yield you get over a series of bets, any series, statistically speaking the more bets in the series the more meaningfull or reliable the yield gets. And last time i looked up the meaning of the word 'probability' there was only one definition, whatever dictionary i used, so i'm not bothering with that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gator Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? Value well you could say that is individual perception or Value compared to bookmakers average price. What i mean is what ever method you use to pick your bets could throw up selections that you can only get at average bookmaker price but if you have a proven method/system that provides long term profit the price you have is value i would say. Datapunter is spot on with his points it is an apprenticeship and you will need to learn the basics first and learn to control the urges to have bets out of boredom or chasing your losses. Also looking to make a living from it well i suppose some big hitters probably can but but as DP says look at this as at best for the moment as a smaller secondary income or investment, start with a bank which you can afford to lose and learn from your mistakes. The times i have lost and then chased losses only to regret not sticking to my strategy. Just a few of my views! Most of all good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? if you know the strike rate it is easy to then calculate the standard deviation of the sample and then compare that figure with the % profit. Example 200 bets 85% strike rate 5%ROI. Standard distribution = square root of pqn P= Probability of winner q = probability of loser n = number of bets From above standard distribution = 5.05 Profit on 200 bets at 5% ROI =10 Therefore 10/5.05= 1.98 which based on a Z distribution equates to >97% that this profit is not down to luck. These values are available in any stats book and are related to the integration of the normal distribution function. From the above it becomes obvious that the standard distribution becomes larger if the strike rate decreases. So then you need an increase of bets sampled or an increase in profit before the sample's profit can be considered statistically significant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Betfairbetting Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? Last trial to explain the problem: Let we have an infinity number of abstract coins: coin 1, coin 2, ... and all of them have different probabilities for head and tails, let the probabilities for heads are p1, p2, ...., for tails q1, q2, .. and pi+qi=1 of course. Now look at this table: a1 b1 c1 d1 .. a2 b2 c2 d2.... ................. an bn cn dn.... ................... a1, a2, ...,an, .. are the results by tossing the first coin, i.e. ai=head or tail. b1, b2, .., bn,.. are the results by tossing the second coin, bi=head or tail. c1, c2..... for the third coin d1, d2... for the fourth coin etc. infinity number of tossings any coin. And you have odds K and L for head and tail for every coin i (K and L are different for every coin i) and you have value in every K, i.e. K>1/pi for every coin i. It is pretty clear that if you bet on head with odds K in every sample a1, a2, a3.. or b1, b2, b3... or c1, c3, c3... etc, you will win, because K*pi>1 But what you (the value betting theory supporters) state is that if you bet on head with odds K in every sample ai, bi, ci, di... you will win. Try to prove it (obviously it is enough to prove it for i=1, i.e. that if you bet on head with odds K in the sequence a1, b1, c1, ... you will win). Show me the probability for a head in this sequence, i.e. how many heads will we have in this sequence? Can we calculate it at all? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? I have put a Monte Carlo Simulator as an attachment. 1. Enable macros. 2. Click on any new cell below chart. 3 Interface will appear. 4. Enter % of winning bets 5. Enter average expected price. 6. Click on Start Simulation command button. 7 A chart based on this will be produce. After running a few simulations with say 50% and odds 2.1. You will notice that even if you have an edge(value) it still posible to show a lost after over 250 bets!!! Obviously the longer you bet with this edge the more likely a profit will be shown. It appears not to work in the internet enviorment. So open and then save the attachmant as a file and then just open up like a normal Excel file.conv_110.xls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? different probabilities for head and tails :loon :lol you've lost me mate, but thanks god its saturday :gimme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 20, 2006 Share Posted May 20, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? Yes we can predict within limits. In the case of head and tails for 1000 spins, I can say that at 99% confidence level total heads will be between 548 and 452. Essentially it was by the application of statistics that the Bank of Monte Carlo was broken! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Betfairbetting Posted May 21, 2006 Share Posted May 21, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? :loon :lol you've lost me mate, but thanks god its saturday :gimme Obviously you have no idea about mathematics /which I supposed only but now I am 100 % sure/. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Betfairbetting Posted May 21, 2006 Share Posted May 21, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? I am stil waiting someone to give a proof of the problem with the abstract coins in the bold text. And if someone is not very smart and can't understand why are these abstract coins with different probabilities for head and tail - it is very simple and natural, they have the role of the sports games with different probabilities for their outcomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted May 21, 2006 Share Posted May 21, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? I am stil waiting someone to give a proof of the problem with the abstract coins in the bold text. Well, as you've stated the problem then it's not necessarily true that you will make a profit (by which I presume you mean that with probability 1 you will eventually be ahead?). If K > pi for every coin, but the difference between K and 1/pi tends to zero fast enough as i tends to infinity, then with positive probability you will not eventually be ahead. Don't see what this has to do with sports betting, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Tips Up Posted May 23, 2006 Share Posted May 23, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? Like Datapunter mentioned, the most important factor is self discipline and being a mathmetician doesn't neccesarily equate to becoming a successful punter. Being capable with numbers and meticullous with it is all you need in the mathematics department. A good knowledge of the sport you're in is essential to give you that 'inkling' or gut feeling about the outcome. No system however good does not have this extra. Systems to me, give you a guide to the outcome. They don't give you a rock solid prediction and it would be foolish to think so in such a volatile environment like sports betting. Keep your system(s) from complexity. Don't go down the same path as a mathmetician. You'll grow a beard and it'll go white. Handy for staking plans they maybe but sporting knowledge such as football isn't their speciality. They don't know their John Collins from their Collins John! Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traderpaul Posted May 23, 2006 Share Posted May 23, 2006 Re: Make a living with betting ¿should i be a mathematician? Betfairbetting Can you please tell me, mathematically speaking, how you can have a positive ROI if favourable outcomes are not occurring more often than the odds you are betting at suggest?:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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