Sensibles Longshots

[sensibleboy]

Im just going to put my longshot fancies up on this thread. This is not a system and is my own fancies. A few rules I am setting down: * All bets will be advised EW. * All about value and bets will be 10/1 or bigger. * National Hunt & Flat racing. Towcester tonight, will post todays value bet up asap. :D

[sensibleboy]

Re: Sensibles Longshots Todays value bet is as follows: 7.50 Towcester - Westernmost EW at 25/1 Bluesq & Totalbet (20/1 generally available) This appeals as a stonking value bet tonight. Kevin Bishop is a very underrated trainer in my opinion and he had a 33/1 winner the other day, all of his recent runners have run well also so the stable is in good form. Westernmost looks to be only average but he was a fairly decent hurdler who just hasn't cut it over fences yet. However he has slipped to a mark of 88 tonight and is stepping upto 3 miles for the first time. He is not bred to get the trip and Towcester is one of the stiffest tracks in the country so he will need to see out every step of this 3miles tonight if he were to win. However judging on his recent performances I think this step up will benefit him. He was a well beaten 4th last time out, just 17 days ago but got outpaced at the halfway stage before staying on again. That race was over 2m4f and he may just have needed the run coming back from a small break. His previous races over 2m to 2m4f worked out the same, where he get outpaced at halfway but stayed on again towards the finish. Personally I have a feeling this 3m may just stretch him but 25/1 is an insult and he is worth an each way bet at that price.