Horse racing : How often do leaders lose?

[billydilly]

I am new to racing but have followed the markets on Betfair closely for as while. My theory is that a horse that leads a race when it comes near the finishing line often loses. Horses are traded at 1.15-1.25 odds, and then go on to lose....do anyone know how often this happens? Is there data to get on this? Thx Levi

[sensibleboy]

Re: Horse racing : How often do leaders lose? Mate, When a horse is 1.15 or so near the finish it doesnt always mean it is leading, trust me. A horse can be swinging on the bridle in 2nd or 3rd and can go into 1.10 or even 1.05. Ive seen this before then when the jock asks it to pick up it finds absolutely zilch. But to answer your questions the leader does get caught late on quite often especially in flat races, sprints the most. You wont beleive the amount of 1.01 shots that are beaten aswell. That is odds of 1/100. I have layed one before and it was succesful. 2 or 3 years back at the cheltenham festival a horse called Merchants Friend was miles clear turning for home. However the horse was absolutely legless. He got over the last but was walking up the hill, he went to 1.01 as he was still 10 lengths clear with 100 yards to go. I layed him to lose just £4 and a horse caught him late on. Couldnt beleive my luck. :lol