Laying Favourites Trial

[DC]

As long as the horse is clear favourite it should be layed. This a trial based on 9 years worth of data. Uttoxeter 3.00 Don't Ask Me 4.30 Finzi or Elvis Returns (whichever goes off fav) 5.00 Shoudhavehadthat Plumpton 2.10 co-fav's at this stage - if a clear fav emerges, lay it 2.40 Bauhaus or Song of Vala (whichever goes off fav) 3.10 Re Na Realta or Floreana (whichever goes off fav) 3.40 Mac Federal 4.40 Rainbows Aglitter 5.10 Or Jaune Worcester 2.20 Rosemauve 3.20 Harry Potter 4.20 co-fav's at this stage - if a clear fav emerges, lay it 4.50 Supreme Huntress 5.20 Treasury Council :hope

[DC]

Re: Laying Favourites Trial Updates and results: Plumpton 2.10 co fav's of 9-2. this will be no lay for me. (Sister Grace named 4-1f after the off and lost - oh well) Worcester 2.20 Meggies Gamble the clear fav and is a lay. Lost but returned 11-4jf. Makes up for the first race. Plumpton 2.40 Song Of Vala clear fav and is a lay. Won easily @ 11-10f Uttoxeter 3.00 Don't Ask me clear fav.. Won easily @ 11/4f Plumpton 3.10 Floreana clear fav.. Won easily @ evsf Worcester 3.20 Harry Potter clear fav..pulled up 11/4f Plumpton 3.40 Mac Federal clear fav.. 3rd 9/4f Worcester 4.20 In Discussion clear fav.. 3rd 9/2jf Uttoxeter 4.30 Elvis returns clear fav.. wins 6/1jf - shouldn't have laid PLumpton 4.40 Rainbows Aglitter clear fav.. unplaced 7/2f Worcester 4.50 Supreme Huntress clear fav..unplaced 5/2f Uttoxeter 5.00 Shouldhavehadthat clear fav.. 2nd 4/5f Plumpton 5.10 Ashwell Lad clear fav..unplaced 5/2f Worcester 5.20 Cheers Us On clear fav.. won 11/4jf - shouldn't have laid

[matjnewton]

Re: Laying Favourites Trial Hey mate I have been wishing for someone to do this for a while, because I am too lazy. Thanks Mat.

[sensibleboy]

Re: Laying Favourites Trial GL with this mate. :ok

[Norvern Monkey]

Re: Laying Favourites Trial

Hey mate I have been wishing for someone to do this for a while, because I am too lazy. Thanks Mat.

I have been thinking of trialling exactly the same for the last few weeks! good luck, i'm convinced this will show a long term profit.

[DC]

Re: Laying Favourites Trial Cheers guys it's only a trial and it won't make millions overnight. However because it's favs we're talking about, you can afford to lay for more as the liablity won't be as big (e.g my other system I'm laying up to 20.00) I'm not sure I'll be able to run this every day either.

[DC]

Re: Laying Favourites Trial Well in theory the system works, but putting it into practise is another matter. It's one thing to lay a horse that is favourite at the off but when it is settled as joint favourite, the system falls down because the horse should not have been laid. Here are the 2 sets of results a) according to what I recorded and b) according to what I SHOULD have done i.e not laying a joint favourite. a) 13 lays, 5 winning favs, 8 losers - profit to SP -5.6 pts b) 10 lays, 3 winning favs, 7 losers - profit to SP +2.15pts Obviously I didn't take into account commision or exchange prices but you get the general idea. For this system to work there should be no doubt that you will be laying the correct clear favoutite at the off and I don't think it's possible.

[DC]

Re: Laying Favourites Trial Not doing anything tonight so I'm gonna go live through the cards again - this time with a difference in an attempt to solve the joint favourites issue. I've back tested the results and now it's possible to lay the clear fav and second fav, OR both joint favs and still make a profit. So it won't matter if the SP's change at the off. It should make sense as it goes along... There are rules to which horses to lay, I'll just post up the names and we'll go from there.. Missed the first couple of races, but there will be a lay (or 2) in the 6.20 Towcester...

[DC]

Re: Laying Favourites Trial The rules I've devised would see the system profiting 145 units so far for 2006, and totalling 2856 units since Jan 1997. (300 units profit a year) I'll be doing this for minimum stakes tonight for a laugh! :unsure 6.20 Tow: Lay DAMARISCO and PROPRIOCEPTION - both lost +5.70 after com. (3 pts per lay) 6.30 Win: Lay CONSERVATION and ABSTRACT ART - A Art won -13.80 (total -8.10) 6.50 Tow: Lay GATSBY and DEEP POCKETS - both lost +5.70 (total -2.40) 7.00 Win: NO LAY in this race 7.20 Tow: NO LAY in this race 7.30 Win: Lay OGEE and HIGH SEASONS - Ogee won -0.90 (total -3.30) 7.50 Tow: Lay PETOLINSKI and DICKIE LEWIS - Petolinski won -6.90 (total -10.20) 8.00 Win: Fav Alcyon is NOT a lay, 2nd fav MASTEROFTHECOURT IS - masterofthecourt won -14.10 (total -24.30) 8.20 Tow: Lay RIVER HEIGHTS but NOT Tisseman - lost +2.85 (total -21.45) Not the best of days to chuck some real wonga at this system but it's worth following over a long period of time. Of course the rules are secret but I doubt anyone will be biting my hand off for them after this display! Cheers Danny

[DC]

Re: Laying Favourites Trial .