E/W betting of horse less then 2/1

[cavello]

I personally do back short price horses E/W(if only I could get the same price on the exchanges most of the time) regardless of the perceived wisdom that this is pointless. I have looked at the typical price structure of non-handicaps from a Bayes Theorem perspective which clearly indicated that value could indeed be available here. Not necessarily believing this I then went to Massey's database and checked the returns in Maiden Flat races and Novice Hurdles. The only filters I applied, were that the favourite was between 1/2 and 2/1 ,was placed LTO, and race contained 8-15 runners. Here are the results. First Results Maiden Flat races

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	3718	1664	44.8%	94.6%	3015	81.1%	97.2%

Second Set of Results Novice Hurdles

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
All Selections	1664	772	46.4%	95.4%	1336	80.3%	96.6%

N.B. If using a bookmaker that gives one roll plus on SP. ROI on the win compo net will increase by c4% and on the place component will increase by c2%.. I have over the winter often combined "Banker" bets in Novice Hurdles with selections from Slapdash in similiar events in E/W doubles. Below breakdown by prices: Maiden Flat Races

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
Less than 1-2	297	215	72.4%	97.2%	283	95.3%	99.6%
1-2 to 10-11	1271	696	54.8%	93.7%	1105	86.9%	96.6%
Evens to 11-8	1184	516	43.6%	94.8%	967	81.7%	97.9%
6-4 to 15-8	1263	452	35.8%	95.2%	943	74.7%	97.3%

Novice Hurdles

	Bets	Wins	Win Strike Rate	Win %Return at SP	Placed (inc wins)	Place Strike Rate	Each-Way %Return at SP
Less than 1-2	277	213	76.9%	102.8%	257	92.8%	100.9%
1-2 to 10-11	689	367	53.3%	90.6%	577	83.7%	93.1%
Evens to 11-8	533	235	44.1%	95.8%	424	79.5%	97.1%
6-4 to 15-8	442	170	38.5%	102.3%	335	75.8%	101.6%