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Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006


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I will start this thread and anyone who wants to follow it is welcome. Firstly I'll explain the methods behind my madness. I use the analysis from the racing post and from what i've seen either from being at the races or on tv and try to follow progressive improving horses. I get to a fair few Yorkshire meetings on the flat, usually Ponty, Ripon, York etc and try to find the strong races where future winners are going to come from. I will post up a chart of the horses I am following when there are more selections. At the moment there are only 4 horses I am following which are London Express, Hero Worship, Hernando Royal and Ask, all of which I have posted on flat horses to follow thread. I am not using any kind of computerised betting system, I don't have any inside information and I wont just post a horse without any explanation. The chart I have made covers the horse, course, distance, type of race, class of race, trainer and jockey, weight and age of horse, SP last time out, winning margin/margin beaten by, ground and comments. I tried this at the end of last years flat season and started by putting £100 in my betting account. Within three months this was up to £1100. I did not use level stakes but for this thread I will. I usually bet in levels of confidence but will keep it level for the sake of the thread. I have also followed a set number of horses this year over the jumps which I spotted early on as horses to follow and these have included My Way De Solzen, Star de Mohaison, Voy Por Ustedes which explains why I had such a good Cheltenham. I did not keep my horse bets separate from my football bets but from 3rd Jan to 31 March I am up £750, taking into account my football betting is poor and accounts for around £200 losses. ( I have learnt from this and now avoid football betting) I understand many people on here prefer to use points instead of pounds so any horse I back will be based on 10pts win or 5pts ew level stakes (£1 per point). I will not be backing anything that is odds on despite its chances of winning. Any horse at odds over 6-1 will be backed each way. I will start with a bank of 100 points and include the only 2 horses that have run so far. I am looking for value, not easy odds on winners and by using a level stakes system can keep a good track of profit/loss. If a horse is entered and I haven't noticed feel free to put it on this thread. I usually check every few days. I won't just back every horse regardless, i will take all factors into account. So far London Express ran at 4/6 and would have been left due to it being odds on. Hero Worship ran yesterday and won at 5-1. Starting Bank - 100 points Bets 1 Wins 1 (5-1) New Bank - 150 points Hernando Royal is entered in the 5.00 Folkestone on 4th May, reasoning has already been given but again was 2nd behind Hero Worship on heavy. That won yesterday to boost form. It was doing its best work at the end once the penny had dropped. Wish me luck.:hope

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 One to add from today. Shortest Day from the Stoute yard. Was given a hands and heel ride, travelled prominently, always looked comfortable and won well. Apparently has good form from last season. Watched the race on RP site and was impresses. One to follow with interest. I'll be on Angel Voices tonight at Kempton 9.20. Not one that i'm following but one that has a chance. Hernando Royal for tomorrow if it runs. Chart is below.

Horse

Course

Distance

Class

Race Type

Trainer

Jockey

SP and winning margin

Age and Weight

Comments and Ground

Hernando Royal

Pontefract

1m 2f

5

Maiden Auction

H Morrison

S Drowne

14-1 2

nd by 2 lengths

3yr old 9-3

Worked well late on and will benefit from experience. (Heavy)

Hero Worship

Pontefract

1m 2f

5

Maiden Auction

M Jarvis

P Robinson

17-2 1

st by 2 lengths

3yr old 9-3

Won well and open to further improvement and workmanlike (Heavy)

London Express

Pontefract

1m 2f

3

Handicap

M Johnston

R Ffrench

13-2 1

st by 8 lengths

3 yr old 8-4

Quickened in a few strides, looks classy, comfortable winner. (Heavy)

Ask

Newmarket

8f

4

Maiden Wood Ditton Stakes

Sir M Stoute

M Kinane

10-1 3

rd by 1 ½ lengths

3 yr old 9-3

Travelled well, staying on at end, needs further, quickened well (Gd-Fm)

Shortest Day

Pontefract

1m 2f

3

Fillies Handicap

Sir M Stoute

R Winston

11-10f 1

st by 1 ½ lengths

3yr old 9-4

Raced prominently, hands and heels, won well (Gd-Fm)

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 2 just added

Horse

Course

Distance

Class

Race Type

Trainer

Jockey

SP and winning margin

Age and

Weight

Comments and Ground

Hernando Royal

Pontefract

1m 2f

5

Maiden Auction

H Morrison

S Drowne

14-1 2

nd by 2 lengths

3yr old 9-3

Worked well late on and will benefit from experience. (Heavy)

Hero Worship

Pontefract

1m 2f

5

Maiden Auction

M Jarvis

P Robinson

17-2 1

st by 2 lengths

3yr old 9-3

Won well and open to further improvement and workmanlike (Heavy)

London Express

Pontefract

1m 2f

3

Handicap

M Johnston

R Ffrench

13-2 1

st by 8 lengths

3 yr old 8-4

Quickened in a few strides, looks classy, comfortable winner. (Heavy)

Ask

Newmarket

1m

4

Maiden Wood Ditton Stakes

Sir M Stoute

M Kinane

10-1 3

rd by 1 ½ lengths

3 yr old 9-3

Travelled well, staying on at end, needs further, quickened well (Gd-Fm)

Princess Nada

Nottingham

1m

5

Maiden Fillies Stakes

L Cumani

N Mackay

7-1 1

st by 1 ¾ lengths

3yr old 9-0

Travelled very smoothly, won well, likely to win again (Gd-Fm)

Caressed

Nottingham

1m

5

Maiden Fillies Stakes

J Fanshawe

JP Spencer

14-1 2

nd by 1 ¾ lengths

3yr old 9-0

Kept on well at finish once penny had dropped, will improve (Gd-Fm)

Shortest Day

Pontefract

1m 2f

3

Fillies Handicap

Sir M Stoute

R Winston

11-10f 1

st by 1 ½ lengths

3yr old 9-4

Raced prominently, hands and heels, won well (Gd-Fm)

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 Only one for Saturday London Express 2.50 Goodwood 10pts win or 5pts ew depending on price Ew if over 6-1 Ran a cracking race at Ponty to beat older horses, ran with credit last time out and reopposes the horse that beat it. Will have to be at the top of its game to beat Championship Point but a good value bet at around 9-2/5-1. Knows how to quicken and given a clevr ride could find it with its head in front at the winning post.

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 One to add to the list from todays racing is Riyalma from the Stoute Yard. Accounted for a horse that has already won in listed company, comes from an in form yard and holds an oaks entry. Went to the front early and kicked on for home when Kinane asked it the question. Likes the soft ground and will get 1m4f. Stoute decided to run it in a listed race to lose its maiden tag rather than going for an easier option and it looks like it will win at Group Level.

Horse

Course

Distance

Class

Race Type

Trainer

Jockey

SP and winning margin

Age and Weight

Comments and Ground

Hernando Royal

Pontefract

1m 2f

5

Maiden Auction

H Morrison

S Drowne

14-1 2

nd by 2 lengths

3yr old 9-3

Worked well late on and will benefit from experience. (Heavy)

Hero Worship

Pontefract

1m 2f

5

Maiden Auction

M Jarvis

P Robinson

17-2 1

st by 2 lengths

3yr old 9-3

Won well and open to further improvement and workmanlike (Heavy)

London Express

Pontefract

1m 2f

3

Handicap

M Johnston

R Ffrench

13-2 1

st by 8 lengths

3 yr old 8-4

Quickened in a few strides, looks classy, comfortable winner. (Heavy)

Ask

Newmarket

1m

4

Maiden Wood Ditton Stakes

Sir M Stoute

M Kinane

10-1 3

rd by 1 ½ lengths

3 yr old 9-3

Travelled well, staying on at end, needs further, quickened well (Gd-Fm)

Princess Nada

Nottingham

1m

5

Maiden Fillies Stakes

L Cumani

N Mackay

7-1 1

st by 1 ¾ lengths

3yr old 9-0

Travelled very smoothly, won well, likely to win again (Gd-fm)

Caressed

Nottingham

1m

5

Maiden Fillies Stakes

J Fanshawe

JP Spencer

14-1 2

nd by 1 ¾ lengths

3yr old 9-0

Kept on well at finish once penny had dropped, will improve (Gd-Fm)

Kerrys Dream

Ripon

5f

5

Maiden Stakes

T Easterby

D Allan

10-1 1

st by ½ length

2yr old 8-12

Looked nice in paddock, will improve, bred for further (Soft)

Riyalma

Newmarket

1m 2f

Listed Class 1

Pretty Polly Stakes (Fillies)

Sir M Stoute

M Kinane

7-2 1

st by 1 ½ lengths

3yr old 8-12

Beat a listed winner, travelled well, went clear when asked to lengthen (Soft)

Shortest Day

Pontefract

1m 2f

3

Fillies Handicap

Sir M Stoute

R Winston

11-10f 1

st by 1 ½ lengths

3yr old 9-4

Raced prominently, hands and heels, won well (Gd-Fm)

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 Not one i'm following as such but i fancy Jubilee Street ew in the 8.10 Ayr. Just had small ew bets on Feed the meter and Nautical and both covered the stake money. Jubilee Street ran well about this time last year and is capable of landing a race like this. A value ew bet in my opinion but I might be wrong.

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 Jubilee Street was unlucky mate, badly drawn, reared at the start and had to come from last to finish well late on. Definitley one for my short list along with Tagula Sunrise who seemed unlucky for racing room at the end.

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 Cheers for that, might make that one of mine to follow.:ok Sat 13/5/06 Shortest Day runs 3.10 Lingfield. 10pts win. Will be offline for a few days as my pc is fooked and having to use my brothers with dial up.

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 One for tomorrow that i'm following. Kerrys Dream 10pts win or 5pts ew if over 6-1 SP. Won its maiden well at Ripon, looked like it owned the paddock, ran on well and bred for further. Big step up in class from maiden to listed but worth a bet anyway. Trainer does well here and at this meeting.

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 New Bank 110pts 4 runs 1 win 3 losses Kerrys Dream can stay on my list for now. Was taking a big step up from maiden to listed and looked like it had won with a furlong to go. Very shocked that it didn't stay on to the finish but set off in front, maybe too quick and the jockey didn't help matters, drifting to the rail when he could have kept it straight.

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 Updated List of horses to follow, chart to come later with explanations. Aggbag Aperitif Apply Dapply Ask At The Money Bahama Mama Baizically Capistrano Captain General Captain Marvellous Caressed Chantilly Beauty Collateral Damage Damika Dazzling Bay Duty Echelon Focus Group Galient Hernando Royal Hero Worship Kerrys Dream King’s Bastion Lavenham London Express Meadow Mischief Merlin’s Dancer Mobsir Moonshadow Motaraqeb Mubaashir Peopleton Brook Prairie Sun Princess Nada Proud Killer Riyalma Shortest Day Sixties Icon Song of Passion Stage Gift Stanley Godspeed Star of Light Wrecking Crew 2 runners today Mobsir Newmarket 2.55 5 pts ew at 14-1 Motaraqeb 4.05 Newmarket 10pts win at SP

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 New Bank 90pts Both todays didn't enjoy the soft ground but Motaraqeb still ran creditably to finish 2nd and will be worth following when seeing good/good to firm ground. As the ground gets better so will my chances of winning. I've updated my chart, took bloody hours so I hope it's worth it in the long run. 6 runs, 1 win, 5 losses (although they were placed) and 1 outstanding ante post bet on Riyalma at 10-1 (5pts ew) Updated chart:

Horse

Course

Distance

Class

Race Type

Trainer

Jockey

SP and winning margin

Age and Weight

Comments and Ground

Aggbag

Lingfield

5f

5

Maiden Stakes

M Wallace

JP Guillambert

25-1 5

th by about 6 lengths

2 yr old 9-3

Drifted on exchanges but made good late headway, stayed on steadily (Good)

Aperitif

Catterick

7f

4

Handicap

D Nicholls

A Nicholls

8-1 1

st by ½ length

5 yr old 8-5

Travelled well, game horse, stayed on, can win again (Gd-Fm)

Ask

Newmarket

1m

4

Maiden Wood Ditton Stakes

Sir M Stoute

M Kinane

10-1 3

rd by 1 ½ lengths

3 yr old 9-3

Travelled well, staying on at end, needs further, quickened well (Gd-Fm)

At the money

Nottingham

1m 6f

5

Handicap

J Eustace

F Norton

7-2 1

st by short head

3 yr old 8-7

Stayed on well, made all, needed step up in trip (Gd-Fm)

Bahama mama

Newmarket

5f

4

Maiden Fillies Stakes

J Noseda

D Holland

15-2 1

st by head

2 yr old 9-0

Led well final furlong and should improve (Good)

Baizically

Hamilton

1m 1f

5

Maiden Stakes

J Osborne

S Kelly

10-11fav 1

st by 5 lengths

3 yr old 8-10

Showed promise as juvenile, has improved, readily (Gd-Fm)

Capistrano

Ripon

1m 1f

5

Handicap

BW Hills

R Hills

15-8 fav 1

st by ¾ length

3 yr old 8-13

Well supported, travelled well, won cosily (Good)

Captain General

Yarmouth

1m 3f

5

Handicap

J Toller

K McEvoy

16-1 1

st by head

4 yr old 8-8

Quickened impressively, good turn of foot, driven past 5 rivals (Gd-Fm)

Captain Marvellous

Chester

5f

2

Maiden Stakes

BW Hills

M Hills

11-8 fav 1

st by 1 ¼ lengths

2 yr old 9-3

Missed break and still won, promising, will stay further (Gd-Fm)

Caressed

Nottingham

1m

5

Maiden Fillies Stakes

J Fanshawe

JP Spencer

14-1 2

nd by 1 ¾ lengths

3yr old 9-0

Kept on well at finish once penny had dropped, will improve (Gd-Fm)

Chantilly Beauty

Lingfield

7f

Gp3

Fillies Stakes

R Pritchard-Gordon

T Jarnet

12-1 2

nd by 1 length

4 yr old 9-3

Rallied well final furlong, smart effort, may have won with clear run (Good)

Collateral Damage

Chester

7f

2

Handicap

T Easterby

G Gibbons

9-1 2

nd by ¾ length

3 yr old 8-4

Wants step up to 1m, needs cut in ground, has won since this race (Gd-Sft)

Duty

Yarmouth

1m 3f

4

Maiden Stakes

Sir M Stoute

K McEvoy

8-11 fav 1

st by ½ length

3 yr old 8-9

Stayed on steadily last 2f, benefited for step up in trip, more in the tank (Gd-Fm)

Echelon

Lingfield

7f

Gp 3

Fillies Stakes

Sir M Stoute

K Fallon

8-15 fav 1

st by one length

4 yr old 9-3

In command final furlong, reeled in leaders, assertive close home (Good)

Focus Group

Chester

1m 2f

2

Handicap

JJ Quinn

Jimmy Quinn

7-1 3

rd by 1 ¼ and nk

5 yr old 8-8

Came from off pace, didn’t like soft on previous run, eye catching (Gd-Fm)

Galient

Chester

1m 4f

3

Handicap

M Jarvis

P Robinson

15-8fav 1

st by 1 length

3 yr old 9-7

Found extra, ahead of handicapper, ran on gamely (Gd-Fm)

Hernando Royal

Pontefract

1m 2f

5

Maiden Auction

H Morrison

S Drowne

14-1 2

nd by 2 lengths

3yr old 9-3

Worked well late on and will benefit from experience. (Heavy)

Hero Worship

Pontefract

1m 2f

5

Maiden Auction

M Jarvis

P Robinson

17-2 1

st by 2 lengths

3yr old 9-3

Won well and open to further improvement and workmanlike (Heavy)

Kerrys Dream

Ripon

5f

5

Maiden Stakes

T Easterby

D Allan

10-1 1

st by ½ length

2yr old 8-12

Looked nice in paddock, will improve, bred for further (Soft)

Kings Bastion

Lingfield

5f

5

Maiden Stakes

M Bell

Hayley Turner

6-4 1

st by 1 ½ lengths

2 yr old 9-3

Debut effort working out well, more to offer, group 1 entry (Good)

Lavenham

Lingfield

7f

5

Maiden Stakes

R Hannon

D O’Neill

7-1 1

st by 2 ½ lengths

3 yr old 8-12

Quickened away impressively, can progress in handicaps (Good)

London Express

Pontefract

1m 2f

3

Handicap

M Johnston

R Ffrench

13-2 1

st by 8 lengths

3 yr old 8-4

Quickened in a few strides, looks classy, comfortable winner. (Heavy)

Meadow Mischief

Nottingham

1m 6f

5

Handicap

E Dunlop

E Ahern

9-2 2

nd by short head

3 yr old 9-7

Holding form well, genuine horse, stayed on well (Gd-Fm)

Merlins Dancer

Chester

5f

2

Handicap

D Nicholls

A Nicholls

11-2 1

st by ¾ length

6 yr old 8-8

In good heart, very pacy, kept on well, made all (Gd-Fm)

Moonshadow

Yarmouth

1m 3f

4

Maiden Stakes

H Cecil

E Ahern

12-1 3

rd by ½ and ¾ length

3 yr old 8-4

Well bred, entitled to improve, had no extra final furlong (Gd-Fm)

Motaraqeb

Thirsk

1m

5

Maiden Stakes

Sir M Stoute

R Winston

7-4 1

st by 1 ¾ lengths

3 yr old 8-13

Stayed on well, steady headway, scope for improvement (Good)

Mubaashir

Chester

5f

2

Conditions Stakes

E Dunlop

L Dettori

5-1 1

st by 1 ½ lengths

2 yr old 9-1

Led well final furlong, will improve again (Gd-Fm)

Peopleton Brook

Lingfield

5f

4

Handicap

JM Bradley

T Durcan

5-4 fav 1

st by ¾ length

4 yr old 9-4 plus 7lb extra

May go for listed races, fast time, in good heart at moment (Good)

Prairie Sun

Catterick

1m 7f

6

Handicap

Mrs A Duffield

Saleem Golam (3)

1

st by 1 ¼ lengths

5 yr old 9-7

Stayed on well, did not get 2m5f at Pontefract (Gd-Fm)

Princess Nada

Nottingham

1m

5

Maiden Fillies Stakes

L Cumani

N Mackay

7-1 1

st by 1 ¾ lengths

3yr old 9-0

Travelled smoothly, won well, win again (Gd-Fm)

Proud Killer

Chepstow

6f

5

Maiden Stakes

JR Jenkins

E Ahern

8-1 1

st by neck

3 yr old 9-3

Stayed on strong final furlong, beat 9lb superior rival, likes soft (Soft)

Riyalma

Newmarket

1m 2f

Listed Class 1

Pretty Polly Stakes (Fillies)

Sir M Stoute

M Kinane

7-2 1

st by 1 ½ lengths

3yr old 8-12

Beat a listed winner, travelled well, went clear when asked to lengthen (Soft)

Shortest Day

Pontefract

1m 2f

3

Fillies Handicap

Sir M Stoute

R Winston

11-10f 1

st by 1 ½ lengths

3yr old 9-4

Raced prominently, hands and heels, won well (Gd-Fm)

Sixties Icon

Windsor

1m2f

5

Maiden Stakes

J Noseda

S Kelly

6-4f 1

st by ¾ length

3 yr old 9-3

Shaken up to lead final furlon, well bred, will improve (Soft)

Song of Passion

Chester

7f

2

Handicap

R Hannon

R Moore

12-1 1

st by ¾ length

3 yr old 8-5

Broke smartly, driven out, can progress (Gd-Sft)

Stage Gift

Yarmouth

1m 2f

3

Handicap

Sir M Stoute

R Winston

6-4 fav 1

st by 1 ¾ lengths

3 yr old 9-0

Won readily, looks progressive, more to come (Gd-Fm)

Stanley Goodspeed

Nottingham

6f

5

Maiden Stakes

JW Hills

Dean Corby (3)

25-1 1

st by neck

3 yr old 9-0

Looks to have improvement, ran well final furlong (Gd-Fm)

Star Of Light

Newmarket

1m 1f

2

Handicap

B Meehan

A Munro

9-1 1

st by ½ length

5 yr old 8-11

Close to pace, led and ran on, kept on strongly (Good)

Wrecking Crew

Lingfield

5f

5

Maiden Stakes

B Millman

D O’Neill

8-1 3

rd by 1 ½ and 1 ½

2 yr old 9-3

Kept on eye catchingly, will be stepped up in trip (Good)

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 Stanley Goodspeed runs today from my list but as it's heavy ground i'll leave it alone. Won well on good to firm and has far superior topspeed ratings to the other horses but the ground is an unknown. Won't include it today as my horses to follow but might have a little dabble on it at 10-1.

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 4 that i'm following run tomorrow. Aggbag 2.45 Yarmouth Captain Marvelous 2.10 Yarmouth Caressed 9.10 Beverley Kerrys Dream 7.10 Beverley All look to have a good chance. 10pts win if SP under 6-1 or 5pts ew if SP over 6-1.

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 Yesterday left Caressed due to being odds on. Other three did not win but 2 were placed although bets were to win due to short odds. 31/05/06 - 30pts staked 0pts returned New Bank 60pts Riyalma yet to run (advised 5pts ew at 10-1)

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 I just created the chart in Microsoft Word and add any new horses I want to follow by inserting a new row. Not doing too well at the moment but i'm convinced the drying ground will change all that. Could have had Caressed last night but swore I wouldn't back or include odds on horses. Keep your fingers crossed 4me for tomorrow. 5 runners and surely a winner or two. I really rate Ouija Board, explosive turn of foot and last two losses were down to bad rides in my opinion. Have also fancied Riyalma 4 ages.:ok

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 Good day today. 10pts Win Echelon (1st at 15-8) 28.75pts return 5pts ew Star Of Light (3rd at 15-2) 10.62pts returned 10pts win Ouija Board (2nd at 11-4) 0pts returned 5pts ew Riyalma (unplaced at 10-1) 0 pts returned (ante post bet) 10 pts win Song Of Passion (1st at 3-1) 40pts returned 50pts staked (including 10 already staked ante post) 79.37pts returned New Bank 99.37pts from starting bank of 100pts 14 runs 3 wins 11 losses (not including placed horses)

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 Just an almighty 7 runners today from my list. As always 10pts win if under 6-1 and 5pts ew if over 6-1. 2.00 Epsom London Express and Stage Gift 2.30 Epsom Mubaashir 3.30 Epsom Merlins Dancer 4.20 Epsom Sixties Icon 5.05 Epsom Focus Group 6.40 Chepstow Wrecking Crew

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006

Just an almighty 7 runners today from my list. As always 10pts win if under 6-1 and 5pts ew if over 6-1. 2.00 Epsom London Express and Stage Gift(10pts win Stage Gift (won 5-2), 5pts ew London Express(unplaced), 20pts staked and 35pts returned) 2.30 Epsom Mubaashir (10pts win at 7-4 - lost) 3.30 Epsom Merlins Dancer (5pts ew at 14-1 - lost) 4.20 Epsom Sixties Icon (5pts ew at SP - lost) 5.05 Epsom Focus Group (10pts win at SP - lost) 6.40 Chepstow Wrecking Crew( 10pts win at 4-1 - lost)
70pts staked, 35 pts returned New Bank 64.37pts from Starting bank of 100 pts 21 runs 4 winners Only one for tomorrow 2.20 Brighton - Bahama Mama (leave if odds on)
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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006 Bahama Mama obliged today but wasn't including it at 1-6. 3 for Monday which are: Baizically Leicester 3.30 Moonshadow Leicester 4.30 Ask Windsor 8.30 I am very confident about Ask and see this being another Stoute/Fallon winner

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Re: Mowgli77 Flat Horses 2006

Bahama Mama obliged today but wasn't including it at 1-6. 3 for Monday which are: Baizically Leicester 3.30(unplaced) backed to win Moonshadow Leicester 4.30(3rd) backed to win Ask Windsor 8.30(2nd) left due to odds on I am very confident about Ask and see this being another Stoute/Fallon winner
Monday 20pts staked, 0pts returned, Bank 44.37pts Tuesday 5pts ew Dazzling Bay (unplaced) 10pts staked 0pts returned New Bank 34.37 pts
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