NBA Playoffs

[TazaD]

Firstly some play-off trends that go back to '99... The 2 seed historically has great success over no. 7 in the opening round, going 26-10 ats (Av. win 11.4) as a home fav. Miami and Phoenix are the two no. 2's... ...I think the spread is a little high for Miami, but I really do like Phoenix to get the job done over LAL in game 1. LA have had a great lead up to the finals, winning their last 5 straight and 11 of last 14, but they've played just 4 road games in that time, beating Boston and Seattle, but losing @ Denver and (importantly I guess!) @ Phoenix. In 4 meeting this season, Phoenix won by 10 @ LAL, 13 and 11 at home, and lost by 20 a week ago @ LA, but with their play-off spot sealed, Nash and Bell took the day off! Phoenix are 12-5 at home v. winning teams this season, they score 109.5 ppg at home, and are 31-10 SU at home with an av. win of 9.8 points. League: 3-10 under (Av. total 172.2...av. score 166.0) if the 4 seed is a fav in first round, and the total is <180 [Dallas] I actually think the books have got this one about spot on. I'd like a couple more points before I played the under here, (and might get them too, everyone loves a Dallas over!), but I don't think it will be as high scoring as a lot of people may think. Dallas have been scoring LOADS lately, but a deeper look shows that they have had a pretty easy schedule against a lot of teams that don't play much D. Going all the way back to the start of Feb, against teams who I consider strong defensively, Dallas have scored; (ignoring the final game with payers resting)... 75 @ Clips (4th best % allowed, 11th least points allowed) 92 @ SA (3rd, 2nd) 90 @ Det (13th and 3rd) 88 v. Houston (2nd and 4th) 89 @ NJ (6th and 6th) 89 @ SA (3rd and 2nd) 97 v. Memph (6th and best!) 93 v, Clips (4th and 11th) 81 @ Memph (6th and best)....so that's an av. of 88.2 in 9 games. They do play some good defense at home themselves, so I'm expecting a slow paced, tight game...I do think this total is very close to the mark tho... Detroit v. Milwaukee over 184 Two meetings in Detroit this season were 112-105 and 106-102 (OT), but still 92-92 in reg...there were just 35 FT's and a large 33 TO's in that game tho too. The Bucks have allowed 100+ in 6 of thei last 7 on the road (not a NY) and give 99.6 ppg on the road all season. Not counting the last couple of games when the Pistons rested their starters, they'd av'd 100.1 in their last 11 games. Bucks av. 96.0 on the road and 105.4 in their last 5!...13 of their last 15 away games have gone over this number. Both teams on 3+ days rest...Det av. 105.6 ppg, the games av. 198.6 (5-2 over) this season...Bucks games av. 210.8 on 3+ days rest! I assume the total is lowish because of the perception that Detroit play red-hot D in the play-offs...which of course is true...but they also score! They were 8-4 'over' at home last year in the play-offs, and I can see some scoring here again.

[TazaD]

Re: NBA Playoffs LA Clippers -4.5 I remember this very game a couple of weeks ago...Clips were -4.5 favs and I said it was one of the worst lines of the season... ...of course, history will show that they duely kicked me in the freckle and won by only 2... ...however, I stand by my claim, and totally ignoring some old proverb about being fooled twice, I can hardly believe it's the same line!! I can only guess that the line is based, a) On that game, and/or b) on the fact that Denver is the 3rd seed and LAC the 6th. In "that game", the Denver lead by 20 (TWENTY!) at HT, after shooting something stupid like 75%...they still ended up shooting 54.7%, but lost the game. In the 'key' stats, LAC had 10-3 offensive rebounds and 58 points in the paint to Denver's 38, so it was just one of those games where the jump shots are falling. So, back to what I said a few weeks ago. Clips play great D at home, Denver play crap D everywhere!...but esp. on the road. Forget the last 4-5 games for both teams, as they have been cruising into the play-offs, but Denver are just 5-16 SU (Av. loss 8.4) as a road dog v. the Western Conf., and just 1-7 against the Pacific div. (Av. loss 9.5) with a win against Golden State late last year... ...Would you believe Denver are an amazing 13-80 SU (Av. loss 10.2) as an away dog v. the Pacific Div since 1995!!!! Anyway, Clippers win this one easily I believe...Now, where is that book of proverbs...