How much skill is there really in poker?

[Blade]

I've read the books and online forums, had plenty of practice yet I still feel there is no substitute for luck in poker. I've just been knocked out of the SO league having had only one winning hand and a hand history that reads something like, 34o, 83o, 82o, 56o, Q4o (you get the drift) and then when I get KK it gets beaten by A4 hitting an A on the river and my JJ gets me knocked out when I go all in on a T high flop to run into KK :( I just feel (and this has been in the last few tourneys I've played) that I have absolutely no control over where I will finish. You can only bluff with bad cards for so long. I'm not saying there's no skill in poker, but it's certainly in the smaller percentage (say 80% luck 20% skill)? Thoughts or am I on tilt!!! :sad

[GaF]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? For me it's a question of time span .......... If you talk short run, then luck is without doubt the most important factor ......... when you get into the long run however, there is zero luck and it is 100% skill

[Blade]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? In ring games I agree, over time skill will win through. I probably should have made it clearer that it's tournaments that I'm talking about specifically where you're forced to start 'gambling' with hands because of the ever increasing blinds.

[slick mick]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? Freerolls and small buy in tourneys you need a good percentage of luck probably about 30% but there is still a lot of skill involved. If you think its all luck then you should go back and read the books again. I've read both Harrington books at least ten times and I always find something new. I also examine every hand I play to see if I could have played it better. I've been playing, mostly freerolls, for just over a year and consider myself a reasonably good player. I've never made a deposit and I've withdrawn over a £1000 and won some nice non cash prizes. I don't consider myself lucky but I admit I've had to get lucky at times. If it were purely luck then it would average out and there would be no Phil Ivey etc. Every time I sit down at a table I learn something new which I bring to my next game.

[GaF]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker?

I probably should have made it clearer that it's tournaments that I'm talking about specifically where you're forced to start 'gambling' with hands because of the ever increasing blinds.

Ah yes - the crapshoot ......... it's harder to make your edge count here, but you still can IMO (over a long enough period of time).................

[slapdash]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? Sorry if I seem pedantic, but I don't really know what it means for a game to have more luck than skill. Or more skill than luck. Poker has a lot of skill and a lot of luck. In the long run the more skillful player will win. In the short term he may not. But I don't think it's really meaningful to say when the amount of skill is "equal" to the amount of luck.

[AJ]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? There is no skill in making hands, yo uplay what you get. Skill is purely in the betting, not so much about what you win with, anyone can tell a good hand. The skill in the game is in the "put", how well can you assess what another player is holding. Don't just look at your hand, concentrate on what the other guy has. It's not about the pots you win, it's about limiting the pots you lose. Reduce the money you leave on the table for others and you'll do fine.

[runadrum]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? I'd have to say none of the voting options 'cos it surely has to be 50% luck, no more no less ! Getting dealt AA is nothing but luck, having someone at the same table with KK is even more luck, if a K comes without an A it is luck (bad and good depending on where you are sitting), etc. You have no control over what cards you are dealt or are dealt to the community. What you do with them you can control completely but not the outcome if someone calls your every raise unless you are holding the absolute nuts at any point during the transaction. So anyone who says there is no luck is ignoring that they are not the dealer ! Any two cards are allowed to win however unlikely the stats say that is at the outset. :ok

[lemonjon]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? Went for more skill than luck, I think that luck plays apart, but you cant be lucky all the time (can u ?). The better players will win money on a more regular occurance than a lucky player. Skills tops it in the bigger picture.

[runadrum]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? Michael Schumacher v Michael Schumacher: it's the guy in the best car that wins - due to the skill of the designer and the mechanics. Gus Hansen v Gus Hansen: it's the guy who gets dealt the best cards that wins, who gets the best cards is due to no skill just pure chance. It is ultimately a game of chance (the blinds are not called that for nothing) but with enough skill element (I'm still going for 50% :lol ) to make it the game we all love - especially the texas holdem variation as it gives everyone every opportunity to fold a hand like KK and feel good about it ! ;)

[guesswest]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker?

Michael Schumacher v Michael Schumacher: it's the guy in the best car that wins - due to the skill of the designer and the mechanics. Gus Hansen v Gus Hansen: it's the guy who gets dealt the best cards that wins, who gets the best cards is due to no skill just pure chance. It is ultimately a game of chance (the blinds are not called that for nothing) but with enough skill element (I'm still going for 50% :lol ) to make it the game we all love - especially the texas holdem variation as it gives everyone every opportunity to fold a hand like KK and feel good about it ! ;)

It's 100% skill over a sufficient number of trials. The only possible exception is if you fluke winning some huge tournament like the WSOP from a $3 satellite, since it's unlikely that your lifespan will be sufficient time for that one to even out. The Schumacher vs Hansen analogy has a problem. One Schumacher will always have the best car, which is why he wins. Over a sufficient period of time both Hansens will have exactly the same cards so they'll split it 50/50. If the Schumachers took it in turns with the best car they'd go 50/50 too. Dunno if I've overanalyzed that thought experiment :D

[runadrum]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker?

It's 100% skill over a sufficient number of trials. The only possible exception is if you fluke winning some huge tournament like the WSOP from a $3 satellite, since it's unlikely that your lifespan will be sufficient time for that one to even out. The Schumacher vs Hansen analogy has a problem. One Schumacher will always have the best car, which is why he wins. Over a sufficient period of time both Hansens will have exactly the same cards so they'll split it 50/50. If the Schumachers took it in turns with the best car they'd go 50/50 too. Dunno if I've overanalyzed that thought experiment :D

Unfortunately individual games are not over periods of months. Hansen v Hansen cannot bluff each other out, it has to be down to the luck of the cards. The game will always have an end even if only because the blind structure puts them both all in (that would be a game to see - or would it actually be deadly dull ? :unsure ) and then we are back to the luck of the cards. postscript - Guess, of course there is more skill than luck in the long term but not 100%. having said that, your poker profit far outweighs mine so whilst bowing to the greater skill perhaps that's greater knowledge too :notworthy :ok

[guesswest]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? Individual games don't take place over periods of months, but you play many games. We're just talking distributions here, all deals have a fixed expectation and the greater the number of trials the more that distribution will approach the mean. When we talk about 'luck' we're just talking about some kind of social measurement of how someone's experienced that distribution in the short term, it's not a real thing and you can't quantify how much of it is happening in a game. Same as if you buy a lottery ticket. Ignoring rollovers it's a -EV choice to buy one, you're effectively paying £1 to get (say) 90p back. If you hit the jackpot, you're could keep buying one every week and you're going to die before you're down. But if you could play the lottery every week forever you would finish down, no luck involved, just probability. It's the same with poker, except the variance is nowhere near as big, and anyone that plays regularly will experience enough trials that their expectation is fixed, no luck. It is probably true that the variance is greater in MTT's vs cash games for a variety of reasons, but variance is still all it is, there's a long term expectation attached.

[guesswest]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? And ty for the compliment run, just noticed that, you might be retracting it when you see april posted in red though :sad

[Valiant23]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? But when you throw psychology into the mix, then I'd argue that it is primarily a game of skill. I think legendkiller 'saw' me lay down AKo (the best hand) vs KJo to an all in bet on the turn on one hand in the Virgin freeroll. It was the villain's 'skill' that won the pot, and my good or bad play that allowed me to get away from an unfriendly board (no jacks either btw). There was no luck involved as neither of us had a made hand, but I'd lost 3 times with AK, and didn't want (at that time) to get tied to it unnecessarily. Would it have been a good call? You could argue either way, but when the villain showed KJo he (imo) played with an amount of skill.

[Blade]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? nice post Guesswest and others. I think it's just the frustration you get in tourneys when you just get no playable hands that gets me. I'm ok in cash games where I have the patience to just sit and wait for the right hands to come, but all I seem to be doing in the tourney tonight was sitting there going "73o ffs, 92o ffs, 46o ffs". I'm sure it will swing the other way in another tourney. The only other question is: how long is a long run!

[runadrum]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker?

You could argue either way' date=' but when the villain showed KJo he (imo) played with an amount of skill.[/quote'] Of course he did, and the 100% luck argument holds no less water than the 100% skill (imo). Perhaps it is the word 'luck' that is at fault - I would go back to it being a game of chance, not 100% chance like dice ('craps' is it ? - hang on I can feel a rebuff coming on that one now too :$ ) but definitely some element. Apologies for borrowing from your profile Guess, but I would say there might as a percentage be more skill in scrabble but still not 100% because chance decides which tiles come your way. I've had more than my say however and even I'm starting to be unconvinced by my argument :rollin I wish everyone all the skill they can muster and the luck they deserve !

[gazabroad]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? If it was totally luck, or even 70% luck then I dont believe you would have people like phil helmuth et al. There must be some skill somewhere? Isn´t there?

[Penelopeys]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker?

Michael Schumacher v Michael Schumacher: it's the guy in the best car that wins - due to the skill of the designer and the mechanics. Gus Hansen v Gus Hansen: it's the guy who gets dealt the best cards that wins, who gets the best cards is due to no skill just pure chance. It is ultimately a game of chance (the blinds are not called that for nothing) but with enough skill element (I'm still going for 50% :lol ) to make it the game we all love - especially the texas holdem variation as it gives everyone every opportunity to fold a hand like KK and feel good about it ! ;)

Erm... have a look at one of Gus Hansens games again... he often wins... but very rarely with the best hand... It is NOT who gets dealt the best hand that wins... far from it... Will have to agree 100 % with GaF on this matter... (look above)

[Jaded]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker?

nice post Guesswest and others. I think it's just the frustration you get in tourneys when you just get no playable hands that gets me... "73o ffs, 92o ffs, 46o ffs"

You mean they're not playable hands?! :unsure :unsure :unsure I think I've just realised why I crashed and burned last night... :wall :wall :wall In answer to the question, I'd say more skill than luck, but luck DOES play a big part...

[Dodger]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? What cards you get are random (oh yes they are!), no skill required there, so this is the ''luck'' bit. You have no control and are in the hands of the Gods of Chance...100% luck. How you play those cards is absolutely under your own control, you do not flip a coin to decide raise or fold (at least I hope you don't), there is no luck involved here, you use whatever skill you have to maximise those winning hands and minimise those losers...100% skill. How to quantify the relationship between the two is nigh on impossible. But it may help to think about it if you can separate the two elements. My own personal preference is to refer to a loss as ''very unlucky'', and to a win as ''all down to my skillful play''...doesn't half make you feel better to imagine that any loss is not down to your lack of skill.

[DAC]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? It's not luck, it's probability. Ok, maybe a smidge of luck. Can't hit a flop on tournies at the mo but my cash games have provided a source of wonderment. This will no doubt change.

[6ooner]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? To be perfectly honest, if it were pure luck most people should be able to break even. If it were pure skill you would get people making a 'grand slam' of all the top tourneys every year not just the same old faces popping up again and again. The fact you quite often see the same few faces around the final tables shows there has to be a large element of skill. Anyone who's played heads up or a turbo tourney knows that there's an large element of luck in the last few hands. Is there anyone out there who can argue that the way GaF steals everyones blinds is nothing less than an artform or that Mr Ross's ability to win a hand with nothing more than 2c and Mr Bun the baker is absolutely uncanny????????

[Valiant23]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker?

Is there anyone out there who can argue that the way GaF steals everyones blinds is nothing less than an artform or that Mr Ross's ability to win a hand with nothing more than 2c and Mr Bun the baker is absolutely uncanny????????

Well, one is an skill acquired :notworthy, and one is just fookin lucky :spank.... I'll leave it to your good selves to make your own mind up as to which is which.;)

[ubermonkey1]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? there is a great deal of luck involved, but the skill is turning your luck heavily in your favour when you get it, and minimiseing losses when you dont. a lot of this comes down to a players perception of the game (other players ,size of stacks ,position etc)this is all a definate skill . a good example is phil helmuth winning 2 wsop main event in a lifetime is unlikely 2 in a row is amazing, admittedly he must have had luck but if the games based on that it was about a million to 1 shot with about a thousand in each tourney:eek

[slapdash]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker?

a good example is phil helmuth winning 2 wsop main event in a lifetime is unlikely 2 in a row is amazing,

He didn't, did he? Thought only Moss (right at the beginning) and Chan had managed that.

[slapdash]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? Um ... ... and Brunson and Ungar.

[robilaruk]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker? no, its called probability the chance of being dealt KK or better is 1 in 110 so after holding KK 109 times you will run into AA.... :) Damo

! Getting dealt AA is nothing but luck, having someone at the same table with KK is even more luck, if a K comes without an A it is luck (bad and good depending on where you are sitting), etc. :ok

[runadrum]

Re: How much skill is there really in poker?

no, its called probability the chance of being dealt KK or better is 1 in 110 so after holding KK 109 times you will run into AA.... :) Damo

When I say 'dealt' I mean the hole cards. In a fair and random shuffle and deal the probability of my hole cards being AA is no different to being 26 surely ? If I happen to get the AA rather than the 26 I would consider that lucky !