AFL Rd. 4.

[TazaD]

Hawthorn look good things, but not sure 1.40 is quite a "Hawthron" price just yet! Still, they won the last meeting last season by 24 points at the MCG, with 6 more inside 50's and 9 more clearances... ...also interesting to note Carlton's goal kickers; Fevola 4, Waite 2, Lappin 1. Fevola definately out, Lapping 80% out and Waite 50/50 at best, so I think they are going to struggle. I do like the way they have fought out games and not given up tho... Dogs 2.00 looks like a good bet...not quite the price I was hoping for, but 2.00 or better looks ok. Like I said, Harley, Scarlett, King, Playfair missing for the Cats...Minson and Morgan out for the Dogs, but Street will directly replace Minson, and Morgan is no more than a bit player...I'm not sure the Geelong forward line can go tall enough to worry the Dogs...Grant in great form, Harris playing very well, Montgomery better for the run... The Doggies won at the dome last year by 35 points!...having 64 inside 50's to 50 and 35 clearances to 30...and that was with Geelong having a full side. My guess is that theDDogs come in later in the week, so 2.00 seems nice now. Richmond +24.5 is an interesting one... The Tiges actually beat Brisbane at Brisbane last season by 4 points as 2.65 'dogs...They also lost by just 18 points up there in 2004 as 10.00 'dogs!!! (Brisbane were 1.05) Last year Power missed, but Lappin played...Brisbane had 6 more inside 50's, but Richmond won the clearances 37-29. Bradshaw doubtful this week...Leppitch also ??... Gaspar out for Richmond, but I'd say Bradshaw would be the bigger loss in that match-up anyway!... 2 problems I guess...last year Brown kicked 4 for the Tiges...and he looks like he'll miss, and have Richmond got anyone to stop J. Brown??..Hall? Kellaway?...could get messy!! Couldn't take the Lions...might take Richmond yet, although it's always a scary prospect...esp. travelling 2 weeks in a row... Crows 2.20!....Freo have won 3 of the last 4 (2/2 at Subi), but only by 1 and 9 points, and both as reasonable favs. Crows won by 6 at AAMI last year, but had 6 more shots (14.10 to 14.4), and had 58 insdie 50's to 39!! Adelaide won their only reg. season game at Subi last year, beating WC by 8 as 3.00 'dogs. I know Adelaide aren't exactly up and running atm, but are Freo ever? Their win last week is over-rating them here I think. WC/Kangas could be close, but Melbourne won by 36 last year at Canberra as favs, so no reason why WC can't too... ...having sai that, WC won by just 4 at the Dome late last year with Matera kicking 5...59-56 inside 50's and 34-33 clearances, so it was genuinely close...not sure...weather could be a factor... Was hoping Melbourne would have a few more points too... ...still, Melbourne won at the SCG by 34 last year, and they are 5-2 this number in their last 7 at Sydney...BUT, Sydney had 25 shots to 24and 51 inside 50's to 47, they just kicked incredibly poorly...still, close stats make it hard for the Swans to win biggish... ...Syd have won just one game in their last 7 by double digits!...Melbourne are 0-3 but faced 2 very good teams in their last 2. Sydney have looked awful so far...would have liked more, but will take +12.5 I suspect. St. Kilda 1.75 has to be bet of the week? Port hve won 8 straight meetings, but I guess that's why the price is so big... ...Port won by 23 in Launceston last year, but had 2 less shots and 10 less inside 50's!!...The Saints have been 'dogs in all of the other games, so it's not like they were losing games they should have won. Port have lost both games this year at home to MUCH worse teams than the Saints. St. Kilda have won 2 of their last 3 at AAMI, by 15 and 8 v. the Crows, and lost by just 6 last meeting to Port as 4.00 'dogs. I'm still not convinced St. Kilda are playing all that well, but Potr as just rubbish!...Tredrea back for Port, but Kositski, Ball and Peckett all expected back for the Saints...can only see one winner here. Collingwood?...look lkely winners but 1.50 is a bit slim, imo. Ess have won the last 4, but 3 as favs, and won by 26 in rd. 16 last season, but had 4 less shots & 4 less inside 50's. Collingwood had no Rocca, Fraser or Didak. Ess had no Hird, but Lloyd kicked 8!... ...It's Anzac Day and anything can happen...sit back with a beer (if you're still standing after a thousand rum and cokes after the Dawn Service! :ok LOL!!

[davidmphill]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Great post Taza. You know your stuff.:ok