Mlb 11/4

[Mr Intensity]

Sport	MLB
Event	Toronto Blue Jays (Towers) @ Boston Red Sox (Beckett)
Selection	Boston (Beckett) -1.5
Strength	10/10
Date	11/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.11 (Back)
Reasoning	Probably not the best play I'll make all season, but I want to make a play on the day games and I fancy this one. Boston have started very well going 5-1 and now going to Fenway I fancy them to put a big performance in. Beckett was strong in his first appearance pitching 7 innings giving up 1 run, and at home I don't expect him to give up much. The injury to Crisp is a concern but I think they've got enough firepower to get it done. Toronto have started not too well, going 3-3 after two home series' at home to Minnesota and Tampa. Towers was roughed up in his first outing giving up 5 runs in 4.2 innings, and that doesn't bode well considering he has an awful record against Boston (ERA of 6.75 lifetime). I think Boston can start strongly at home as they did away. Decent value as several of the UK books go odds on.

[Juuso]

Re: Mlb 11/4 Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees Royals +2 2.19 (Pinnacle) 4 units NYY: RHP Chien-Ming Wang (0-0, 3.86 ERA) KC: RHP Joe Mays, (0-1, 12.46 ERA) Kansas trying to spoil Yankees home opener. Ok, probably won't happen but i'm taking Royals +2 with these odds. they have gone up all day and now you get about same odds for +2 than what opened for +1.5. Joe Mays was bad in his season debut but he can't go on that bad in every game. Yankees starter Wang is also very average pitcher. He has limited MLB experience. about 20 starts, with 8-5 4.02 ERA last year. While he was 5-2 at Yankee stadium last season he was also lit up quite many times and pounded out of the game. Ok, Kansas is one of the worst MLB teams, but they have improved with guys like Reggie Sanders, Mark Grudzialanek etc. in the offseason. This is baseball after all, so i wouldn't touch that ridiculous price on Yankees. They have monster hitting but bullpen and starting pitcher today is not that good. Kansas could keep up on the scoring board and this could be a tight one. I'm willing to take my chances with +2 runs with this very attractive price. Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox Blue Jays 2.8 (Pinnacle) 4 units TOR: RHP Josh Towers (0-1, 7.71 ERA) BOS: RHP Josh Beckett (1-0, 1.29 ERA) Here we got an dramatically improved Toronto team against Red Sox in Bostons home opener. Beckett is one of the most overhyped pitchers of the league imo. He is not much over .500 in his career. Last year his numbers were 15-8 3.37 ERA with 178.2 IP. While Towers had 13-12 3.71 ERA 208.2 IP. Imo the pitchers are quite equal, Towers saw more action last year facing better AL hitting lineups than Beckett did in Florida. With all the new acquisitions Toronto made in the offseason, they are not much worse team than Boston really. Toronto will win in this exact spot about 2 out of 5 times, making it a good value play. Odds haven't also moved at all in this game despite Boston is probably getting a lot of public money, there is a reason for that. Either Toronto is getting moneywise equal action and/or bookies are not risking rising already a bit too high Toronto odds.

[StevieFlack]

Re: Mlb 11/4 3 overs for me tonight Royals vs Yankees- Yankee bats got warm lats night.I can see this continuing against Mays.Wang is average, so there are run possibilities for the Royals. Over 10 runs- 1.9 Washington vs Mets Some bad blood between these too.Neither pitcher had an amazing start- hopefully some more beanings in this one- giving us a few free base runners.The atmosphere should be intense. Over 8.5 @ 1.0 Blue Jays vs Red Sox Towers has a poor record against the Bo Sox, and will he hold up at fenway? Beckett had a good start but there is plenty of batting for both sides- one big inning could see us get towards the over 9.5 runs @ a tasty 2.20 3 100 point singles

[Jaded]

Re: Mlb 11/4 Arroyo got ANOTHER home run against us. This is just ridiculous. :@

[Juuso]

Re: Mlb 11/4 That Yankees comeback was bloody ridiculous. Kansas was clearly the better team but pitchers sucked and walked 9 batters, many on situation that resulted into scoring runs. I'll take the push but that was really unlucky.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Mlb 11/4

That Yankees comeback was bloody ridiculous. Kansas was clearly the better team but pitchers sucked and walked 9 batters, many on situation that resulted into scoring runs. I'll take the push but that was really unlucky.

Yeah I thought you'd nailed that one:sad Boston take it 5-3 for me:ok

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Mlb 11/4

Sport	MLB
Event	Los Angeles Dodgers (Seo) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Snell)
Selection	Over 9
Strength	10/10
Date	11/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.01 (Back)
Reasoning	This looks like a decent chance for an over. Pittsburgh really suck in the field and pitching, the only way for them to win games right now is through hitting and not leaving guys on bases. Even 2 games with Duke pitching they haven't got it done. Snell was poor in his first outing, giving up 4 runs in 5 innings. In 19 games in the big time he has an ERA of 5.80 and has been awful in two appearances against the Dodgers. Seo was on fire for the Mets last season with an 8-2 record and an ERA of 2.59 but really struggled in his first game for LA, giving up 3 runs and only lasting 3 innings. Every Dodgers game so far this season has had at least 8 runs, and I can see the hitters having a good time in this one, and should be able to cover 9.

[Juuso]

Re: Mlb 11/4 LA Dodgers @ Pittsburg Pirates Dodgers 1.92 (Mansion) 5 units LAD: RHP Jae Seo (0-0, 9.00 ERA) PIT: RHP Ian Snell (0-0, 7.20) Here we got a pretty big pitcher mismatch. Dodgers starter Jae seo is a control artist with a five-pitch repertoire. 8-2 record with an 2.56 ERA last season with the Mets. He was also outright dominant in World Baseball Classic representing his native Korea, going 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA. He started a bit rusty in his first game allowing 3 runs in 3 innings of work, but should regain his level. Snell of Pitsburgh was 1-2 last season posting a 5.14 ERA. He has pitcher only 59 innings in MLB going 1-3 since 2004 season. Also, Dodgers are 18-5 at PNC park alltime. Yesterdays game was really good from Dodgers, they did everything right. Hit a couple of homers and many clutch hits with men on base. With Seo performing in his normal level this should be anouther Win for the LA team.

[Juuso]

Re: Mlb 11/4 Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Indians Indians -1.5 2.47 (Mansion) 4 units SEA: LHP Jarrod Washburn (1-0, 2.57 ERA) CLE: LHP Cliff Lee (0-0, 5.06 ERA) Here we got a couple of good leftie pitchers going h2h. Cliff Lee was amazing 18-5 with a 3.79 ERA last season with the Indians. Washburn went 8-8 with a 3.20 ERA with the Angels last season, but got a lot more no decisions than Lee. Lee has also pitched very well against the Mariners. He has career 4-0 record and 3.94 ERA against them. In 2005, Lee beat the Mariners twice in three starts with a 3.00 ERA. Washburn has also done very well at Jacobs Field, posting a lifetime 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA in seven career starts there. Last season he allowed five runs on 10 hits in five innings in his only start vs Cleveland. Cleveland showed some great play in the second half of last season and seem to have picked up where they left. The team has acquired few new faces and the talent really is coming together nicely. 5-1 to start the season, winning last 5 games. I'm counting the bats can do some damage against Washburn. Batting is the key factor in this game. Cleveland with more power should be able to put up runs on the scoreboard, just need a good outing from Cliff Lee.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Mlb 11/4

Sport	MLB
Event	Texas Rangers (Bauer) @ LAA Angels (Weaver)
Selection	LAA Angels (Weaver) -1.5
Strength	10/10
Date	11/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.34 (Back)
Reasoning	Texas have been struggling with there hitting this season and I can see the superior team doing a job on them tonight. Bauer has a 4.41 ERA in 6 major league starts and pitching on 3 days rest at the start of the season I can see him having problems. Weaver had a pretty poor start to the season, giving up 5 runs in 6.1 innings, but, he kept letting the first guy get on base which made it hard and I think he's pitching alright. He has a poor 1-5 record against Texas but they aren't hitting as well as usual, so I think he can do better tobight. Texas are 0-8 in the last 8 meetings and I can see ther poor start to the season continuing.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Mlb 11/4 Unlucky with the Royals Juuso. Not too much sympathy though as I was on the Yankees. I posted it up on my S+S thread but didnt have time to do a writeup here before work. Although off form Yankees are always a different prospect at home. Also have to remember that although unlucky, Yankees have an amazing record when it comes to coming from behind over the past few years.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Mlb 11/4 Unlucky with the overs at Fenway Stevie. Still, something good came from it .............the BoSox won!:ok;)

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Mlb 11/4 Out of interest, who does everyone support?? From the comment above you can tell Im a RedSox fan. Im sure Matt is too and Stevies a BlueJay. Jadeds positive comment about the Yankees poor start makes me think he may be RedSox but then that could be any team bar NYY.

[Juuso]

Re: Mlb 11/4

Unlucky with the Royals Juuso. Not too much sympathy though as I was on the Yankees. I posted it up on my S+S thread but didnt have time to do a writeup here before work. Although off form Yankees are always a different prospect at home. Also have to remember that although unlucky, Yankees have an amazing record when it comes to coming from behind over the past few years.

Yes, they do have an amazing record at home openers and coming from behind. I would have taken them -1.5 for over 2 odds probably, but their price was just too low today, especially with C. Wang on the mound. Betting on Yankees and certain other big public teams are better to be done right when the odds come out. I prefer underdogs mostly because of the value factor. Best teams are also losing 40% clip of their games in Baseball and there is better money to be made betting teams like Kansas and Tampa than Yankees or Cardinals imo.

[Juuso]

Re: Mlb 11/4

Out of interest, who does everyone support?? From the comment above you can tell Im a RedSox fan. Im sure Matt is too and Stevies a BlueJay. Jadeds positive comment about the Yankees poor start makes me think he may be RedSox but then that could be any team bar NYY.

Indians

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Mlb 11/4

Event	Los Angeles Dodgers (Seo) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Snell)
Selection	Over 9

5 runs in the first and we're half way there:hope

[Jaded]

Re: Mlb 11/4

Arroyo got ANOTHER home run against us. This is just ridiculous. :@

Anyone who's read this will realise I'm a Cubs fan, as Arroyo can't even HIT against anyone else, let alone get bloody home runs!! :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall

[robby]

Re: Mlb 11/4 Born and bred Cards fan, miss the days of Coleman, McGee and Smith (where a single was as good as a double) Fancy the Tigers as well, though that's only been the past decade or so. For the record, teams I dislike Yankees (who doesn't ;)), Cubs (comes natural as a Cards fan, recent record doesn't help :)) and Phillies (quit crying over Drew already)