Newton-Heath Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 Today I dicovered an old formula I created in Excell a couple of years ago. I thougth I'd erased it due to formating the hardisk but today I accidentally stumblede across it. So, I decided to test it again on yesterdays results in Premier League and The Championship. Now, this formula show the most expected outcome in a match by using stats, etc. and the idea is to lay the "losing-team". Prognose: The number indicate the rating of the expected outcome. The higher the rating the bigger the chance for the outcome. If the outcome is negative the outcome is more likely to be an awaywin. Wich then might lead you to laying the hometeam. Result: The result of the match. Outcome: If the laying was successfull the outcome would be OK. If not it FAILED. Note: If you choose to use the ratings to BACK the winning-team instead of LAYING the losing-team, then you should only choose to back them when the rating is 1,500 or more (positiv or negative). Anyway, here's the result of analysing yesterdays matches and the prognose for todays matches: PREMIER LEAGUE: Tottenham - Man C Prognose: +1,029 Result: 2-1 Outcome: OK :loon Wigan - Birmingham Prognose: +0,408 Result: 1-1 Outcome: OK :loon Portsmouth - Blackburn Prognose: +0,036 Result: 2-2 Outcome: OK :loon Charlton - Everton Prognose: +0,250 Result: 0-0 Outcome: OK :loon Boro - Newcastle Prognose: +0,500 Result: Not played Outcome: N/A :hope Man Utd - Arsenal Prognose:+0,933 Result: Not played Outcome: N/A :hope Chelsea West Ham Prognose: +0,938 Result: Not played Outcome: N/A :hope Aston V - WBA Prognose: +0,346 Result: Not played Outcome: N/A :hope Liverpool - Bolton Prognose: +0,893 Result: Not played Outcome: N/A :hope ---------------------------- THE CHAMPIONSHIP: Brighton - Soton Prognose: +0,150 Result: 0-2 Outcome: FAILED :wall Burnley - QPR Prognose: +0,350 Result: 1-0 Outcome: OK :loon Cardiff - Reading Prognose: -0,150 Result: 2-5 Outcome: OK :loon Crewe - Sheff W Prognose: +0,150 Result: 2-0 Outcome: OK :loon Derby - Millwall Prognose: +0,350 Result: 1-0 Outcome: OK :loon Ipswich - Stoke Prognose: +0,200 Result: 1-4 Outcome: FAILED :wall Leeds - Plymouth Prognose: +0,750 Result: 0-0 Outcome: OK :loon Preston - Norwich Prognose: +0,600 Result: 2-0 Outcome: OK :loon Sheff Utd - Hull Prognose: +0,800 Result: 3-2 Outcome: OK :loon Wolves - Coventry Prognose: +0,650 Result: 2-2 Outcome: OK :loon Watford - Luton Prognose: +0,600 Result: Not played Outcome: N/A :hope The ratings presented here should only be used as pointers. I think you have to analyse the matches even further before placing a bet. The most important thing about this system is to find the matches not worthy for bets. Today I might not want to lay Arsenal and Bolton. The reason for this is because Man Utd have 8 games in a row with wins and I think that the might as well lose this one. Liverpool have 5 games in a row with only wins and I think that Bolton could win 1-0. Well, let's see how it goes. This is just another try-out-system so we can't possible say it's the key to succes. But you might as yourself if laying odds instead of backing them could bring more profit... N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? good luck mate, looks interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 9, 2006 Author Share Posted April 9, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Okay, here's the results of todays matches: PREMIER LEAGUE: Boro - Newcastle Prognose: +0,500 Result: 1-2 Outcome: FAILED :wall Man Utd - Arsenal Prognose: +0,933 Result: 2-0 Outcome: OK :loon Chelsea - West Ham Prognose: +0,938 Result: 4-1 Outcome: OK :loon Aston V - WBA Prognose: +0,346 Result: 0-0 Outcome: OK :loon Liverpool - Bolton Prognose: +0,893 Result: 1-0 Outcome: OK :loon ---------------------------- THE CHAMPIONSHIP: Watford - Luton Prognose: +0,600 Result: 1-1 Outcome: :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 11, 2006 Author Share Posted April 11, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Today I've done some research on these mathes: Colchester - Hartlepoool Prognose: +0,600 Bet: Lay awaywin Swansea - Swindon Prognose: +0,850 Bet: Lay awaywin Despite Colchesters bad performance lately I think they will pull it together and win this one. The rating on Swansea could look like the rating of a winner but I'm not that eager to play both teams as winners. But I'm going to lay both awayteams. Good Luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted April 11, 2006 Share Posted April 11, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? looks a promising start mate - are you putting any staking plan behind it to give an idea of profit/loss/yield etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 12, 2006 Author Share Posted April 12, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Both matches yesterday was successfull :ok Colchester - Hartlepoool Prognose: +0,600 Bet: Lay awaywin Result: 2-0 :loon Swansea - Swindon Prognose: +0,850 Bet: Lay awaywin Result: 2-1 :loon Well, I haven't developed any stakingplan for my system yet and the other matches before Colchester vs Hartlepool and Swansea vs Svindon was just to see if the system could work. Just something to show. So, the only matches I've bet on was yesterdays matches. So if my plan is to win 2 points on each bet my profit would now be +4. My total stake for the two bets I made was 19.4 points. So, the yield will then be +1.206. The question is: should I use flat staking or should I go for flat profit...? As stated above I went for flat profit (2 points on each bet). But if I lose I will lose more than if I use flat staking. It's a matter of risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 12, 2006 Author Share Posted April 12, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Okay, I think I might have found a match to bet on tonight: AZ - Twente Prognose: +0.688 Bet: Lay awaywin Odds to lay: 7.40 Profit wanted: 2 points Stake: 12.8 Good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 12, 2006 Author Share Posted April 12, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Well, AZ pulled a draw against Twente (0-0) :loon My profit is now +6 points. The yield is 1.186. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 13, 2006 Author Share Posted April 13, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Todays match: Karlsruhe - Offenbach Prognose: +0.786 Bet: Lay awaywin Odds to lay: 6.00 Profit wanted: 2 Stake: 10 points I also run an analyse on AGF - Brondby but I decided not to bet. Although Brondby should be better than AGF, Brondby do miss some keyplayers due to injuries. Good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 13, 2006 Author Share Posted April 13, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Well, Karlsruhe pulled a draw against Offenbach (1-1) :loon My profit is now +8 points. The yield is 1.189. I'll see if I can come up with some great matches to bet on this weekend. N-H :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted April 13, 2006 Share Posted April 13, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Today I dicovered an old formula I created in Excell a couple of years ago. Hi NH, R U willing to share your formula? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 14, 2006 Author Share Posted April 14, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Todays match: Southend - Gillingham Prognose: +0.950 Bet: Lay awaywin Odds to lay: 7.00 Profit wanted: 2 points Stake: 12 points (Gillingham have won 4 in a row and are in great shape. I think Southend is the team to stop Gillinghams winning-streak.) Hi NH, R U willing to share your formula? Well, I can't reveal my secret... not yet :dude The reason is simple: I'm still just testing it (although I do bet on the matches I pick) and I want to try out different types of staking-plans to see which one fits best. I want everything to be perfect before I reveal the formula to anyone. It's a simple formula and I think the reason I haven't used it in the last couple of years is because I thought it was too simple. But it seems to work after all. But as with any other sytems out there I think this one will hit the wall as well. So here's where the staking-plans might be handy. But don't worry, I will reveal the secret eventually :) If you want I can use the formula on some matches you migth want me to take a look at. Just send me a PM. N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 14, 2006 Author Share Posted April 14, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Southend lost against Gillingham (0-1) :wall My profit is now -4 points. I'l be back with some more to bet on... N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 14, 2006 Author Share Posted April 14, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Well, I feel like I've just flushed my profit down in the toilet.. But that's how it goes sometimes. New picks (tomorrow - Saturday): Schalke - Köln Prognose +.0967 Bet: Lay awaywin Profit wanted: 2 points Odds to lay: 8.00 Stake: 14 points Ipswich - Brighton Prognose: +0.429 Bet: Lay awaywin Profit wanted: 2 points Odds to lay:4.40 Stake: 6.80 points Good luck :hope N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 16, 2006 Author Share Posted April 16, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Schalke - Köln (1-1) :loon Ipswich - Brighton (1-2) :wall Profit: -8.80 points. I had a nice start but I quickly got my feets back on the ground. But I'm an optimist so I'll try to find more picks to bet on.. N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 16, 2006 Author Share Posted April 16, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Well, I've just found a nice one to bet on: Valencia - Espanyol Prognose: +0.688 Bet: Lay awaywin Profit wanted: 2 points Odds to lay: 9.20 Stake: 16.40 points Good luck :hope N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 16, 2006 Author Share Posted April 16, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Valencia - Espanyol (4-0) :loon Profit: -6.80 Now, this one was a nice one.. N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 17, 2006 Author Share Posted April 17, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Todays match: (This is a tricky one and you might wonder why I'm betting like this.) WBA - Bolton Prognose: 0.00 Bet: Lay homewin Profit wanted: 2 points Odds to lay: 2.56 Stake: 3.04 points Now, why would I bet like this is if the prognose is 0.00? Well, the reason is obvious.... The odds on WBA is to be layed at 2.52 and the odds on Bolton is to be layed at 3.20. WBA also got a homerecord of 6-1-10 while Bolton got an awayrecord of 4-5-8. WBA have manage to win 35.29 pct of their homegames while Bolton have managed to take points in 52.94 pct of their awaygames. Therefore I consider the teams to be equally fit but the odds indicate that I'm better off laying odds on WBA. Good luck :hope N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 17, 2006 Author Share Posted April 17, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? WBA - Bolton (0-0) :loon Profit: -4.80 Well, next time the prognose show 0.00 I'll might concider backing a draw rather than laying odds on any of the teams :ok N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 19, 2006 Author Share Posted April 19, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Tonight I'll bet on: Scarborough - Grays Athl. Prognose: -0.680 Bet: Lay homewin Odds to lay: 4.7 Profit wanted: 2 points Stake: 7.40 points Good luck :hope N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 19, 2006 Author Share Posted April 19, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Scarborough - Grays Athl. (2-7) :loon Profit: -2.80 Although it seems that I might be back on track I do feel that it takes too long to build up some money. I'll therefore try to come up with a better staking-plan or a different way to bet (probably doubles or trebles instead of singles). N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 21, 2006 Author Share Posted April 21, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Well, I'll decided that I want to bet more safetly. So, instead of going for a profit of 2 points at each bet I'll bet on a treble with a stake of 2 points. The first match out is: Crystal Palace - Southampton Prognose: +0.591 Bet: Lay awaywin Odds to lay: 4.30 Stake: 2 points Profit (if won): +0.60 points Good luck :hope N-H PS! Vitoria vs Boavista and Kaiserslautern vs Hertha Berlin both came out with 0.00 at the prognose. You might want to bet on draws here. Thought you should know... Although I'm not going to bet on these matches myself. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Crystal Palace - Southampton (2-1) :loon Profit: -2.20 Well, the first match of the treble was a sure winner. Now I have to find two more matches to bet on. The stake for the next bet is 2.60 points. I'll be back with some more selections. N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? I've searched and I've found... : Almeria - Elche Prognose: +0.875 Bet: Lay awaywin Odds to lay: 5.60 Stake: 2.60 points Profit (if won): 0.56 Good luck :hope N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted April 23, 2006 Author Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: To lay or not to lay... Could it be the key to success? Almeria - Elche (2-0) :loon Profit: -1.64 At next (and final) bet in this treble the stake will now be 3.16 points. The challenge is ofcourse to pick a sure winner... N-H Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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