Mastering the Long losing run.

[Guest boytractor]

Timeline Trap 4 won 3rd race Crayford this morning. (We are looking at races 1 - 4)

[Guest fender2004]

Re: Mastering the Long losing run. cj I USE THE ONE I POSTED HERE AT THREE LEVELS. This one is the lowest level when I anticipate a losing run is probable. The next level would start with 2 pts and increase in the same increments and the third level starts with 3 pts. The total pts risked at each level is (20),(40) & (60). My latest qualifier (trap 4) in race 4 (12.44pm today) won at 5/2 it was the last chance for it to come in my betting run. My outlay was £200 and return £227.50. So a clear profit of £27.50 was achieved. Not a big return this time, but I was expecting it to be the first loser of 2004. So with this win today, trap 4 has now won 11 out of 11 qualifiers this year. I will continue at level 1 of my staking plan until I suffer a losing run. Like I said before, I challenge anyone to show me a system using only level stakes, that makes a good profit, at least 5 x your betting bank anually. So if you started in January this year with £100 for example. You would have a betting bank of at least £600 BY december.

[Guest fender2004]

Re: Mastering the Long losing run. That is correct lufc, and it won today at a price of 5/2.On day 19 (THE LAST CHANCE IN MY SYSTEM) Unfortunately it was joint favourite. But that is the way it goes, sometimes I get 5/1 or 6/1. So it averages out to be about 7/2 per winner.

[Guest lufc]

Mastering the Long losing run. Fender, atm i am currently updating my tables on the previous results but am unable to find the result for the 13:48 on the 12th of this month. Am i correct in taking the 13:49 (Swindon) as this result? If not can you tell me the winner, thanks :)

[Guest fender2004]

Re: Mastering the Long losing run. Mr intensity, by good profits I expect an annual turnover of at least 500% of my initial bank. To be worth all the effort and research. Any profit making system is good. But I wouldn't be happy with just doubling my bank annually. It is an individual thing. I admit I was alot more erratic & RISKY with my staking in the beginning. So increased my bank by an average of 50% per month. Which is incredible. I wouldn't risk such a high proportion of my bank now. As I alot more to lose. But that in itself is testament to how good this system is. In my first month my bank went from 200 to 304. In my second month it grew to £423 and so forth. It is true that had the system let me down I would've been wiped out in those initial months. But I was so blown away by the consistency of the results my research produced, that I was willing to take such risks. Now I risk an average of 6% of my total betting bank on a run. Before I was risking as much as 40%. I believe this system will work as long as greyhound racing exists. And hopefully time will prove that to all the doubters on here. Only by doing some research for yourself like Boytractor has taken the time to do, will you see that despite what you've read or been told in the past. This system works, and works good.

[Seen2001]

Mastering the Long losing run. fender - can you explain why, if this system works so well and increased your initial bank so much, you suddenly stopped backing traps 1, 2, 5 and 6? I am fully aware that you did state that traps 3 and 4 had given the best results, but if the system is so good then surely it is pointless drastically reducing the number of bets and also potential profit.

[Guest fender2004]

Re: Mastering the Long losing run. 13.49pm is correct lufc, sometimes the times vary. But it is always the first four races of the morning cards & first four races of the afternoon cards that I am concerned about.

[Guest fender2004]

Re: Mastering the Long losing run. Seen would you not agree that even a good system can be improved ? Statistically traps 1,2,5,6 produce more long losing runs over 20 days than traps 3 and 4. I have fined tuned the system to home in on the incredible consistency of those two traps. What is your problem with that ? There is no such thing as a system that doesn't produce losing runs, the object is to define it to a point where your win to loss ratio is as good as possible. That is what I have done with the Timline system. I am now at a point where my win to loss ratio is as good as it can possibly be.

[Guest fender2004]

Re: Mastering the Long losing run. Seen would you not agree that even a good system can be improved ? Statistically traps 1,2,5,6 produce more long losing runs over 20 days than traps 3 and 4. I have fined tuned the system to home in on the incredible consistency of those two traps. What is your problem with that ? There is no such thing as a system that doesn't produce losing runs, the object is to define it to a point where your win to loss ratio is as good as possible. That is what I have done with the Timeline system. I am now at a point where my win to loss ratio is as good as it can possibly be. I am also aiming to make a living from this system by the time I reach the 10,000 pound mark. So that is another reason for me becoming more cautious and aiming for the best win to loss ratio possible.

[Seen2001]

Mastering the Long losing run. FAO BOYTRACTOR BT - back on the 17th of this month, you posted on this thread the following statement....

I stated earlier that trap 4 WILL win at Brough Park this afternoon. If I were to bet level stakes of say £5. each race until it won, I would end up losing. If there are 12 races, the longer it goes before a winner, the greater the odds I would require to make a profit. Because I firmly believe that the win will come (because of statistics) - I am prepared to increase (or decrease) stakes as necessary to make a profit on the day. There are various ways of achieving this.

Now you were correct, Trap 4 did win a race - the 12th one of a 13 race card to be precise. Would you be so kind as to show us what stakes you placed to achieve the profit you promised to make? Thanks in advance. Seen

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Mastering the Long losing run. Do bookies take bets that large? ;)

[Guest boytractor]

STAKING Stakes as follows: 5        2        20.00        L        -20.00 9        2        16.00        L        -16.00 9        2        20.00        L        -20.00 3        1        36.00        L        -36.00 2        1        71.00        L        -71.00 9        4        95.00        L        -95.00 4        1        77.00        L        -77.00 7        2        110.00        L        -110.00 7        2        142.00        L        -142.00 9        2        142.00        L        -142.00 10        3        234.00        L        -234.00 4        1        254.00        L        -254.00 7        2        362.00        W        1629.00 Profit of £50.00 Mr Intensity - from your very constructive post, one must assume that you imagine doubling up is the only way.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: STAKING Would all of that be worth it for a 3% yield on a sucsessful day? :sad

[Mr Intensity]

Re: STAKING I'm sure I could find a better 1.03 shot for your 1500 notes ;)

[Guest boytractor]

Staking Mr Intensity - you seem to have a major problem. I was asked to show my staking. This I have done. 3% in 2 hours - I'm more than happy with that. You continue doing your thing - I'll do mine.

[Mr Intensity]

Staking I just think it's a load of shite boytractor. It took 12 races to get a 7/2 winner, not good. Surely you, and others following traps, would be able to select a winner quicker than that?

[Guest boytractor]

Staking You can think what you want. £50 per meeting is my aim. Mon - Fri 4 daytime meetings = £200 per day. When I stated trap 4 on 17th for Brough Park, it was to show my confidence in my own methods. Take it or leave it. More often than not, I am successful within the first 6 races. I have no intention of proofing any further as I just cannot be bothered with all the crap that follows. I've done the research, I've got the stats and more importantly, I've got the confidence in my own methods. Now, as you are obviously so knowledgeable and have your own methods, what have you got to offer us all?????

[Mr Intensity]

Staking

Now, as you are obviously so knowledgeable and have your own methods, what have you got to offer us all?????

Sarcastic comments ;)

[Mr Intensity]

Staking And the whole independent events/statistics thing that you all too easily ignore :p .

[Guest boytractor]

Stakes I have not disagreed with individual events. Take a look at 3.10 Folkestone today. 8 runner race. Forecast favourite for the race is Maddie's A Jem - why is this the forecast favourite? Purely because it won it's last race. This is a new event so all runners have an equal chance if you were to ignore stats. The odds range from 9/4 to 33/1. In reallity, any of the runners priced at 8/1 or greater are the value bet. As we all know, it doesn't work like that. STATISTICALLY the winner will come from the 1st 4 in the betting. Whatever you say, in my opinion, statistics cannot be ignored.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Stakes

STATISTICALLY the winner will come from the 1st 4 in the betting.

STATISTICALLY the winner IS MOST LIKELY TO come from the 1st 4 in the betting.:)

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Stakes The main thing I disagree with is the staking. In your example, why does the last dog deserve over 15 times the stake of the first dog?

[Guest boytractor]

Staking I stated that I aim to win £50 per meeting. Because I am betting based on statistics, I am betting on the same trap each race until I reach my aim. Therefore, my stakes MUST increase in order to win the £50 aim for the meeting if not successful in the first race. So far today, I have achieved my aim in both morning meetings - 2nd race 1 meeting, 8th race the other meeting. I have full confidence in the afternoon meetings also obliging. The majority of punters on message boards totally frown upon loss recovery or anything other than level stakes. How many actually do it in reality though? I don't wish to get into a heated discussion. I have stated what I do and the faith I have in my own statistics. As stated - full confidence for afternoon meetings 2nd race one meeting, 7th race the other. Aim achieved for today.

[Guest fender2004]

Re: Stakes Mr intensity, I wouldn't personally bet down a card myself to achieve a win. Boytractor is right though, if you're going to put your faith in any one trap. You could do no better than trap 4. It usually does through up winners within the first 6 races down the card.

[Guest boytractor]

Staking I would just like to add that personally, I don't follow trap 4 at all meetings. The traps change per meeting according to my stats for that particular meeting.

[Guest davidcampbell]

... what an interesting read :unsure

[Slick 123]

Re: Mastering the Long losing run. Are there any updates the the above TImeline System?

[stat man]

Re: Mastering the Long losing run. I don’t usually get embroiled in arguments but this thread made my blood boil. It seems to me that the people who posted on this thread used a mixture of emotion, belief and fact. I’d therefore like to take the emotion and belief out of the argument and stick to the facts. Fact No. 1: If it is possible that something can happen, eventually, it will. It is possible that every greyhound starting out in trap No. 4, or any other selected trap for that matter, from this day forward, will lose. It is unlikely but it is not impossible. Fact No. 2: The maximum longest losing run that we are likely to encounter is given by the formula Log(Races)/(-Log(1 – SR)) where Races = number races and where SR = the strike rate in decimal form. This relates to a probability of 95%. Here is an example: Let’s suppose that racing takes place at 1 track on 300 days of the year and we take the first 4 morning and afternoon meetings and we look at a period of 3 years. The number of races = 300 x 8 x 3 = 7,200. Let’s also suppose that each trap has an equal chance of winning. The strike rate = 100/6 = 16.67% = 0.167. Applying our formula for the longest losing run, we get Log(7,200)/(-Log(1 – 0.167) = 3.85733/0.07935 = 48.61. So, in 7,200 races, there is a 95% probability that we will encounter a losing run of 48.61. There is also a 5% probability that we will encounter a longer losing run. The longer the losing run, the lower the probability. Now let’s take 6 year’s worth of data. The number of races = 300 x 8 x 6 = 14,400. Applying our formula for the longest losing run, we get Log(14,400)/(-Log(1 – 0.167) = 4.1584/0.07935 = 52.402. So, in 14,400 races, there is a 95% probability that we will encounter a losing run of 52.402. There is also a 5% probability that we will encounter a longer losing run. The longer the losing run, the lower the probability. Notice that as the number of races increases, so does the length of the longest losing run that we are likely to encounter. Fact No. 3: I have read this thread. My apologies if I missed it but I can find no mention of the fact that as the number of bets increases, so does the longest losing run. Therefore, for example, if a system allows for a losing run of 13 races this year, next year, because of the increase in the number of bets, they will need to allow for a losing run which is greater than 13. Fact No. 4: Someone on the thread stated ‘That means basically in the next 3 or 4 days I am gauranteed a winner anything from odds of 2/1 to 7/1.’ (stet). Clearly, based on the above, a winner cannot be guaranteed. Fact No. 5: Provided that greyhound races are honest and that no trap has a bias, then races are independent of each other. Therefore, the fact that a given trap hasn’t produced a winner in a given number of races does not increase nor decrease the likelihood that the given trap will produce winners in the future. Therefore it is illogical to base such a system on past data. Fact No. 6: The above are based upon statistical probabilities. It could be that this thread’s creator will not meet a very long losing run in his lifetime and will retire a very rich person. It could also be that this thread’s creator will meet a very long losing run starting tomorrow. What COULD be is down to statistical probability. What WILL be is down to one thing and only one thing – LUCK.

[Lars]

Re: Mastering the Long losing run. This thread is eight years old, unbelievable. No idea why it's been brought back up. May as well post this video here, as it's an easy watch really and sums up the subject perfectly.

[keithbeaky]

Re: Mastering the Long losing run. Cattermole is so clueless