3 Tipsters System.

[thunderfoot]

I've posted this on other forums, so I'll post it here as well.;) The following is a ‘system’ I developed & was ‘paper trading’ last year to test it’s viabilty, but because it was labour intensive i.e. a lot of work extracting the data, formatting the data in EXCEL, market watching and updating results, I gave it a rest for a few months and have never really picked it back up to continue trading. The System ….. involves using the daily selections from the following 3 tipsters: Racing Post - http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/home.sd Sun - http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2003110000-2001320235,,00.html Times - http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17249-1645959,00.html To gain access to the Racing Post tips you do have to be registered. I have my own system for extracting & parsing the data from these 3 sources into an EXCEL database, which I then used to analyse the data. Basically, what needs to be identified is what horses are tipped by all 3 tipsters. My theory behind this is that individually, each tipster has a strike rate of about 25%. By combining these 3 tipsters and only betting on the horses that they all tip, gives ‘quality’. Therefore, you only bet on races where the horse is tipped by all 3. BUT, it doesn’t stop there. The tipsters strike rates will include Odds-on favourites, so I avoid these. Also some horses that are tipped by all 3 tipsters, for some reason or other, drift in the market. Therefore, I only backed a horse to win if: - 1. All 3 tipsters tipped the same horse. 2. SP was greater than or equal to 2.25. 3. SP was less than or equal to 5.00. 4. 5 to 19 incl. runners in a race. 5. Bets were placed before the race started. 6. Don't trade over the weekend or Bank Holidays. Note: SP’s were based on Ladbrokes NOT Betfair, although the bets would have been placed on Betfair. Period of Running I ran this system from 1st September 2004 until 10th June 2005, with a few gaps in between for holidays and work commitments. There was a big gap of no trading between 1st February 2005 and 20th April 2005 incl. (I got tired of running the system!!!) Stakes I placed £5 to win bets for SP of 3.00 and above, and £10 to win bets for SP up to 3.00. Results During the Period of Running: - 1. I placed bets on 287 races. 2. There were 111 winners. 3. Strike Rate was 38.6%. 4. Max. Losing Run was 13 races. 5. Of my £100 ‘pot’, only £85 was the max. ever used. (Max. Outlay) 6. Total Staked during Period of Running was £2,010. 7. Total Gross return during Period of Running was £2,477. 8. Net Return was £467. Whilst the Net return equated to 549% (Net Return [£467]/Max. Outlay [£85]), you can see that unless I was prepared to increase the stake sizes and take the plunge and actually trade, the system was a lot of work for a small monetary return. I had run a similar system in tandem with the above whereby the Odds range was narrowed to 2.50 to 3.25 incl., and this system returned a Net profit of 825% over 128 races with 62 winners (strike rate 48.4%), but was only found after all the data I was collecting was analized .... the wonders of hind-sight!! Basically, the system was 'selective betting', because certain criteria had to be met before a stake was made. Having read on another forum about the 'Square Root' staking system, I might just dust this system off and see if the monetary returns could be increased. This & other 'goodies' at :- http://www.thunderfoot.f2s.com/betting/

[sbi]

Re: 3 Tipsters System. hi thunderfoot. i like the look of this. any reason for only using these tipsters? i thought about doing something similar and was tempted by using the NAPs of any tipsters showing profit for that season. i don't understand your how excel data extraction would work - what exactly does it do, would you be willing to send it to me?