sbi Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 This is a new approach to a system i started yesterday which seeks to find value by looking at the distance teams travel to games. it is hoped that long travelling away teams will underperform relative to their market price as this is a relevant factor but one which people offering the odds may not consider. rather than backing the home team as i originally suggested, it seems more appropriate to lay the away team (the system is saying these teams will underperform but takes no consideration of the ability of the home team). I will be considering all European leagues, for obvious reasons there are quite a few more selections in Italy, Spain & France in comparison to the UK. the rules: travel time between towns as given by the AA route planner must be at least 4 hours. staking: 100 point start bank lay 5% of current bank on each selection (variable liability). Today's selections: lay 5 pts on all: middlesboro @ 3.9 liverpool @ 3.85 cadiz @ 5.5 sevilla @ 2.6 villareal @ 2.82 santander @ 6.6 fiorentina @ 3.0 lecce @ 5.1 udinese @ 4.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 12, 2006 Author Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers Fiorentina match abandoned, all other bets won :nana new bank = 140 pts every team lost except Villareal who drew 1-1, a ver promising start to the system. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers cracking start mate - the travel time rather than distance seems a very good idea! one question - will this be a straight lay of all teams or will there be any careful elimination of teams that are performing well away from home (eg orient, chelsea etc)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 12, 2006 Author Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers i had thought about introducing some method for eliminating good away teams but think i will avoid doing so - it seems to be against the reasoning behind the selections, which is that the odds for these selections are too low because of not considering the travel factor. I'm thinking that the market will already have considered good away performance so while this kind of filtering might improve the strike rate, in the long run it may not improve returns. i want to see how well this does by using only the travel criteria. of course if you dont want to place all the bets or just want to use the info as part of making a smaller number of selections, it could be wise to eliminate good away performers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 13, 2006 Author Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers one bet for monday: lay bochum @ 2.86 (germany 2nd div) a 600+ km trip for these guys :zzz i've just realised that the staking as given in the first 8 selections would not be possible as the total liability would have been around 200 points. I'll have a think how best to do the bank. I will be placing all of the bets that the system comes up with but want to grow the bank using a percentage of bank staking plan. i think it'll have to be a lay to risk ie fixed liability system, so i'll knock up a table of the results so far assuming a liability of 5% of current bank on each selection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 13, 2006 Author Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers just had a look who chelsea have lost to away: middlesbrough man united betis draws to aston villa everton everton (fa cup) last season defeats newcastle (fa cup) man city liverpool (euro) barcelona last season draws aston villa arsenal newcastle quite encouraging. they don't seem to like the north east much. i remember they didnt look too clever against Sunderland this season (won 1-2). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 13, 2006 Author Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers commission 5 profit: 24.23 no. results 8 liability: 45.97 wins 8 % profit: 52.7% strike rate 1.00 date team travel hrs > lay odds liability stake odds on stake bet w/l rtns less 5% comm. new bank result 12-Mar middlesboro 5 3.9 5 1.72 1.34 w 2.29 102.29 2-1 12-Mar liverpool 4 3.85 5 1.75 1.35 w 2.34 104.63 2-1 12-Mar cadiz 10 5.5 5 1.11 1.22 w 1.35 105.97 1-0 12-Mar sevilla 9 2.6 5 3.13 1.63 w 4.98 110.95 2-1 12-Mar villareal 4 2.82 5 2.75 1.55 w 4.18 115.14 1-1 12-Mar santander 4 6.6 5 0.89 1.18 w 1.04 116.18 2-1 12-Mar lecce 5 5.1 5 1.22 1.24 w 1.50 117.68 2-1 12-Mar udinese 14 4.7 5 1.35 1.27 w 1.70 119.38 2-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 13, 2006 Author Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers there's the results so far using a 5% of bank lay to risk staking plan. today: lay to risk 5.97 pts bochum (currently @ 2.86, lay 3.21 pts) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 13, 2006 Author Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers first away winner for the system :( wasnt very long odds though. profit:13.41no. results9liability:45.97wins8% profit:29.2%strike rate0.89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 13, 2006 Author Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers score was 0-1 by the way, i'll be interested to see how many of the losing bets are 0-1, i think it could be most of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers This sounds interesting. I think you'll be relying a lot on Plymouth and Sunderland at home though? ... ? ? ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 13, 2006 Author Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers i guess they'll be featuring a lot... one thing i like is i don't think i'll ever have to lay my team villa :) no problems with plymouth, only lost 4 / 19 @ home this term. anyways, a poor home record isnt really a problem if the market is adjusting for it. sunderland v chelsea broke the record for the longest odds for a home team in a league match. however i doubt even such adjustment would stop a loss being made from laying sunderlands away opponents so far this season :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 13, 2006 Author Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers most of the selections will be coming from other countries - as an example sheffield to london does not take quite long enough to qualify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 14, 2006 Author Share Posted March 14, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers off to the villa match so cant be too long - tonights are ipwich & swansea. i got ipswich @ 4.6 but they've drifted to 5.3, swansea 3.6 i think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers Plymouth aren't a bad home side to be fair Danny but with Blunderland you'd be mad to expect them not to lose at home this season! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 14, 2006 Author Share Posted March 14, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers 2 defeats out of 2 for our long distancers tonight :ok forgot to mention before Ajax also qualified but i think i'll keep this to domestic matches - the travel is more likely to have been accounted for in euro matches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 14, 2006 Author Share Posted March 14, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers by the way - any (non British) European followers out there? there's a few teams i cannot find out what town they're from so cannot work out the distances. post here the location (nearest large town / city)any teams not named after a town or named after a small part of a larger town. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 15, 2006 Author Share Posted March 15, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers sorry made a mistake earlier i said swansea had not won ('2 out of 2 tonight) but in fact they won :( results so far: date team travel hrs > lay odds liability stake odds on stake bet w/l rtns less 5% comm. new bank result 12-Mar middlesboro 5 3.9 5 1.72 1.34 w 2.29 102.29 2-1 12-Mar liverpool 4 3.85 5 1.75 1.35 w 2.34 104.63 2-1 12-Mar cadiz 10 5.5 5 1.11 1.22 w 1.35 105.97 1-0 12-Mar sevilla 9 2.6 5 3.13 1.63 w 4.98 110.95 2-1 12-Mar villareal 4 2.82 5 2.75 1.55 w 4.18 115.14 1-1 12-Mar santander 4 6.6 5 0.89 1.18 w 1.04 116.18 2-1 12-Mar lecce 5 5.1 5 1.22 1.24 w 1.50 117.68 2-1 12-Mar udinese 14 4.7 5 1.35 1.27 w 1.70 119.38 2-0 13-Mar bochum 6 2.86 5.97 3.21 1.54 l -5.97 113.41 0-1 14-Mar ipswich 4 4.6 5.67 1.58 1.28 w 1.99 115.40 3-1 14-Mar swansea 4 3.6 5.67 2.18 1.38 l -5.67 109.73 1-2 tonight's selections: 15-Mar fulham 4 12.5 5.49 0.48 1.09 15-Mar bolton (cup) 4 3.15 5.49 2.55 1.47 15-Mar espanyol (cup) 12 5.7 5.49 1.17 1.21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 15, 2006 Author Share Posted March 15, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers 3 out of 3 tonight :nana both cup matches were draws, i'll keep a note of any which are cup to see if a difference emerges (although with the high strike rate ill need to run this for a long time to get more meaningful analysis). missed out on a couple of euro matches where the away team has lost, i'll have a look to see if there's any useful stats around for away team performance in european games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 15, 2006 Author Share Posted March 15, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers Total liability 73.77 Total returns 89.10 Yield 20.8% Winners 12 Losers 2 Strike Rate 86% Current bank 115.33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 16, 2006 Author Share Posted March 16, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers oops juest missed out on Freiburg (8 hour trip) as their game has just kicked off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted March 16, 2006 Share Posted March 16, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers Hmm... This is very interesting, sbi. But what if some of the teams is traveling by plane? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 16, 2006 Author Share Posted March 16, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers [Freiburg lost 1-0 by the way but i won't include it in the results as i just missed the kick off] hi N-H. my thoughts on this are that in practice it's not possible to 'cheat the system' - any journey where the team goes by plane is likely to be 4 hours + door to door. also, i think that taking a plane would in a way add to the feeling of making a long distnace journey, and the psychological element could be as important as anythiing. also even if the team takes a plane and reduces time compared to the time i'm using (by car travel), it is unlikely that very many supporters are going to make such a long trip. i'm not sure of the relative importance of the various factors but if the distance is one of the things contributing to the 'home advantage', and is not a factor considered by the rest of the market, then there is potential for profit. - i have done no testing or previous betting using this idea, but these initial results are promising :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers I've looked at the match between Bolton and Sunderland this weekend. Sunderland have to travel for about 3 hours according to a mapsite I've found on the internet. Now, I don't know when the team travels to Bolton (is it early in the morning or are they traveling so they arrive just an hour or so before the match?) but I do know that teams in my country (Norway) generally travels so they arrive 1-2 hour before the kick off. If that's the case for other teams as well then I guess you could also use that as an adding factor to the amount of time they're travelling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers Now, I really found myself eager to find more teams that are travelling a long distance to play far away from home. Aachen vs Dresden could be a fine bet. Dresden have to travel for almost 6 hours by car/bus (5 hr 57 min) to play against Aachen. The match is today by the way. PS! After almost 6 hours on a buss I would feel like this => :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers hi, which route planner do you use? have you checked all tonights games? i've not looked at tonight. for me bolton does not qualify as im looking for 4 hours or more (although dropping down to 3 hours would give a lot more selections in the English leagues) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers Here's the adress to the mapsite: http://www.drive-alive.co.uk/route_planner.php I don't how reliable it is since I haven't compared to other mapsites. The other matches in the german Bundesliga II does not match your criteria. Both awayteams in the other two matches is travelling less than 3 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers here's tonight's selections: Lay to risk 5.77 points on all. 16-Mar dresden 16-Mar valenciennes 16-Mar chateauroux 16-Mar bastia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers i'm using www.theaa.com it seems to have a fairly extensive towns list and is quite quick to use. if anyone wants to do some leagues for saturday let me know what you have done / find - there's far to much work already getting my other selectins ready so not sure if i'll have time for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newton-Heath Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: lay long distance travellers Aachen won 2-0 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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