German Breeds In Staying Hurdles

[numenorean]

Hi all. This is a free style system as described by datapunter. The reasoning behind the system is based on an article in the racing post weekender newspaper (08 / 02 / 06 to 12 / 02 / 06). Nick Mordin is the author he is their systems analyst. The reason i am posting this is that i have made a tidy bank for the big one next week from following the advice contained within the article. No credit can be taken by me all figures presented are taken directly from the article. The basic outline is this. 98% of flat horses bred outside of Germany in all the high profile breeding opperations and as result most of the lesser known ones too are all descended from 1 Horse. Phalaris. Phalaris was the The British sprint champion of 1915 - 1916 and his great great grandson was Northern Desert. Northern Desert greatly increased the speed in the thoroughbred pedigrees. German breeds were never bred from this stock due to the war. Their principle sire was Acatenango for most of this period. THE WHOLE POINT OF THIS IS SIMPLY THAT GERMAN BRED HORSES STAY BETTER. There has been altogether too much speed been bred in to jumps stalions in the UK. This is actually becoming more evident in the numbers of injuries occouring to horses recently. The flat horses are much slighter creatures than a proper bred chaser or hurdler for that matter. From the 2m 3f point on wards the germans extra stamina seems to be paying off and here is why. Now the system. If you had backed every german horse who ran over 2m4f in the Uk Ie GER after its name on the card over the last ten years, you would have placed 699 bets and won 112 of those bets. But to a level stake your profit turns out to be an alltogether amazing112.56 to a 1 pound stake. I was duly astonished by this.:ok So thats a good place to start but he goes on to narrow down a few parameters. I am not going to recant the entire article suffice to say that he basically defines a narrow band where the german performance is at its peak. This performance band is as follows back all german bred runners from 2m 3f to 2m 7f. If you had used this simple filter your total bets in 10 years would have been 199 with a total of 48 wins and a level stakes profit of152.1 with a performance rate of 24.1%. This is my first time to issue a system and as you can see its as easy as pie to follow. There is more to it though and further to be said on the benefits of betting certain breeds Newzealand for example. I am going to issue my first tips based on it for tommorows racing ie friday. I will leave a paper trail on this thread for all to follow. On a personal note here are some of the winners it has gleaned for me in the past few weeks. Olaso @ 8.00 / Silverio @ 13.00 / Nerone @ 3.5 / Our armageddon @ 15.00 / Felix rex E/W place 3rd behind gardessee Another german @ an astonishing 101.00 for felix rex thats 26.00 for the place Gardesee just failed as the 4/6 fav. So here it goes I will post the tips shortly. Please if anyone has any imput feel free to contact me about your comments and views. [email protected] Numen:ok

[numenorean]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles System Bank & 1st selections. The rules are as follows. Starting Bank = 100pts odds of 1.1 - 5.0 max win stake of 10pts will be played odds of 5.0 - 10.0 max stake of 5pts E/W will be played 10.00 - 20.00 3pts E/W will be played over 20.00 stakes of 2pts E/W will be applied. Non runner No bet. The first selection is for todays Sandown card. 3.50 Sandown Amanpuri @ 8.6 on Betfair 5pts e/w take the bookies early price. Further reasoning is that the fav Wee anthony won last time out in a poor contest on heavy ground ' lingfield where he had the race ran to suit with a 33/1 shot finishing second. Amanpuri on the other hand beat beat LEWIS ISLAND by a 1l margin and the progressive Hairy lemon back in third. That was over an inadequate 2m2f on the heavy and i feel this step up in trip is ideal. The second selection is 3.35 Ayr Ceasars Palace @12.00 on Betfair 3pts E/W Won 2 starts back in a decent 3m hurdle but failed to build on that in a hotter run race next time. Had the fancied silver seeker who ran today beaten 50 odd lengths on that day. Good luck to all ill be on with real cash though. Numen:unsure

[numenorean]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles Mark 2 There are a few more german horses running today but they dont fall within the prefered distance range of 2m3f to 2m7f. I still feel that a case can be made where stamina can come in to play and from here on in i am going to start a new thread as a paper trail only on all german runners that i feel can make stamina count in any given race. I have had success with this in the past month but not the same level of success as the system stated above. Most selections where placed at odds of about 7/1. Here are the rules to this one. Opening bank 100pts All plays will be 1 pt win or 1/2 pt e/w where the projected odds allow. I will quote the going price on betfair the night before each racing day. 2.10 Sandown 2mhcp hdrl 7 run Iberus 1/2 pt E/w @ 20.00 Has won over hurdles and run on the flat they have tried him over a variety of trips and he stay 2m7f 6th on 2 occasions this military race might be the one try to out stay them up the sandown hill. 16.45 Ayr 2mhcp hdrl 10 run Tiger King 1/2 pt e/w @8.8 Stable won with another german bred horse last week called nerone who was also entered for this race but had a large 7lb pen to carry. Anyway lee now rides this one and could be worth a place at least.

[numenorean]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles System 1 German Breeds 2m3f to 2m7f WELL A BAD START IS WHAT WE JUST HAD TO THIS ONE. I WASNT REALLY THAT CONFIDENT ABOUT POSTING THIS IDEA THIS CLOSE TO CHELT. BUT I DID AND ITS NOT BEEN GREAT. 3.50 SAND AMANPURI WAS WELL BEAT 10/1. GIVEN A BAD RIDE IMO WAS PUT UP THE FRONT ON THE PACE AND FOR A HORSE WHO CAME OFF THE PACE OVER SHORTER I DONT GET WHAT THEY WERE AT. SO 1 DOWN. 3.35 CEASARS PALACE BT A NK FOR THE 3RD SPOT. - AGAIN WAS GIVEN A TERRIBLE RIDE IMO. JOCK HAD HIM UP WITH THE PACE THEN PUT HIM ASLEEP OUT THE BACK AND FROM MILES BACK THE COMMENTATOR SAID HE HAD NO CHANCE. WITH LESS THAN A FURLONG TO GO HE MADE UP A HUGE AMMOUNT OF GROUND AND JUST FAILED TO PINCH 3RD BY A NK @ BEST PRICE 14/1 Starting Bank = 100pts No of bets = 2 No of wins = 0 No placed = 0 Todays result = -16pts Current Bank = 84pts. Have a few for tommorow so :moon to the bookies Ill be Back. Numen:ok

[numenorean]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles Mark 2 Again not the best of starts to this one. some more jock error but basically no good enough caught for pace and jumped badly in both cases. Again this is only a paper trail following the relative success or failure of german bred horses running in britain. Results. 2.10 sandown Iberus 4th @ 9/1 well beaten. Never jumped well and jock had him out front where he jumped badly dropped out never featured. But did stay on past the beaten horse. 4.45 Ayr Tiger King 4th @10/1. I felt that in order for this one to be placed he needed to lead and force a solid pace. Instead he was droped in and when they quickened at the bend 3 out he couldnt of the slow gallop. Starting bank 100pts No of bets = 2 No of wins = 0 No placed = 0 Todays result = - 2pts Current bank = 98pts. I still see potential for this. Numen:ok

[laying larry]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles Hi Numen, I like your thoughts and will be following when work permits. Cheers LL

[numenorean]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles Hello thanks for the interest. Just curious are u the same laying larry the sends mails to sportslive ie nick millard and co. Numen:ok

[numenorean]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles Mark1 2m3f - 2m7f Ok I only have 1 selection that fits the bill today. There are other Germans on the run but out of the profiled range i will list them under the mark 2 version. Revenge for zeee Germans. 2.10 Sandown IDRIS @ 22/1 with Ladbrokes. 2Pts E/w the Stake. 18 run so 4 places. Ran well behind raffello, nicholls promising jeuveniles are providing good form guides so ill take this one at the price. Also ran well behind dusky lord and jonjoes Manners within 5 lengths each time. This step up to 2m4f is what the system calls for so we will see. Thats it ttfn. Numen:unsure

[numenorean]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles System mark 2 All distances. Now we are a bit short on the ones that fall within the preferential distances so lets have a look at the others. In the big hurdle in sandown there are 22 runners and 4 germans to pick from. 1/ top weight and a horse i really like is United. Ran 3 really solid races last year p/town being the best when he beat strangely brown 12l and akilak 1l back in 3rd. But as a line of form what about this from the same race. Maxxium was a long way last that day beaten 30 or more lengths. Maxium has beaten Arch Rebel this season and ran well in other races. Arch Rebel was only 15l behind Brave Inca in the irish champion hurdle. On that line of form UNITED is the next Feathard Lady. AND ON THAT NOTE fEATHARD lADY hAS cREAMED bRAVE iNCA oN GALLOPS. i worked with a lad who rides out at colin murphys stable and he told me a year ago to back the lady every time she runs as she has beaten BI many times in work. 3 other germans in this race are Euro American, Fenix and Tarlac. I also really like tarlac McCoy on board for JP but have my doubts about his speed. He was pulling mccoys arms out the last day when jumping the last. Theres more to come from this one but maybe not tommorow. A bet on tarlac to be decided based on any inflow of cash. Its a seriously competitive HCP but a major move for jps horse especially if theres any whisper thats its HIS cash then have a Punt. As for the other 2 well off the ratings they are up against it. I was on euro American the last day at 6/1 but that was a tough race on him on the heavy so would not fancy but might stay on for a place from way off the pace. Fenix was the horse that really inspired me to write this I had 50e/w on at 100 / 1 and got that vital 3rd spot whats a pay out but I cant see it in this race. I advise A Small e/w play on the class horse United 3pts e/w @14/1 Ladbrokes. If the money comes for Tarlac get on but i cant advise a bet on the form i think he wants 2m4f. Or 3m. Numen:unsure

[numenorean]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles Mark1 2m3f - 2m7f NO RUNNERS TODAY. i PUT UP iDRIS IN THE 2.10 SANDOWN PUT HE WAS PULLED OUT. Starting Bank = 100pts No of bets = 2 No of wins = 0 No placed = 0 Todays result = -16pts Current Bank = 84pts. i DONT THINK THERES ANY FOR SUNDAY BUT I WILL CHECK AGAIN. NUMEN;)

[numenorean]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles Mark 2 UNITED WAS THE SELECTION AND WAS BEATEN. RAN WELL THOUGH FOR A HORSE WITH TOP WEIGHT AND A LONG LAY OFF. WILL RUN AT AINTREE AND I WILLLLL BE ON. THIS ONE IS THE REAL DEAL. Starting bank 100pts No of bets = 3 No of wins = 0 No placed = 0 Todays result = - 1pts Current bank = 97pts. numen;) remember this 1 is just a paper trail.

[numenorean]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles Mark 2 Well i thought there was no runners but there was, a horse called Mungo Gerry ran @ market rasen in the 345 and finished 2nd at 11/1 sp. Since this mark 2 is just a paper trail im going to add the result in to the stats. if i dont then we wont get a true reflection over time. every selection was 1pt win & 1/2/ e/w it will be entered as the 1/2 ew as thats the way i would have gone had i been able to read properly and not suffered from temperory blindness. so 11/1 @1/5 =pts so now bank reads Starting bank 100pts No of bets = 4 No of wins = 0 No placed = 1 Todays result = + 1.6pts Current bank = 98.6 numen:tongue2

[numenorean]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles Mark 2 Well **** **** **** I missed another 1. LYsander ran today in the 4.10 at stratford. Hes going in to keep the records straight. Was looking more intently for horses that fit in with System 1 and missed this bugger. Stake would have been 1/2 pt E/w so a result of 14/1 3rd place wasnt bad. @ a return of 1/4 the odds = 4.5 * 1/2 = +2.25pts Starting bank 100pts No of bets = 5 No of wins = 0 No placed = 2 Todays result = + 2.25pts Current bank = 100.95PTS numen:tongue2

[numenorean]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles I made some small calc errors above in the last 2 system mark 2 posts. They have been corrected. Showing a minute profit, Great. ;) Numen

[numenorean]

Re: German Breeds In Staying Hurdles Cheltenham Tracker, Im gonna see how all the germans run at cheltenham this year. I love this idea but no one else seems to care but i suppose ive made money out of it. On the first day i will list all the German runners no matter what distance. The stakes will be 2pt win 1pt e/w. Back each way @ odds more than 4 to 1 only. Heres the runners and the stakes. 200 Sweet Wake @ 5/2 2pt win. 5th not a bad run 235 Foreman @ 6/1 1pt e/w. 3rd so + 2.5pts 235 Wild Passion @ 20/1 1pt e/w. 4th very good run for the money but no pts 315 Fiepes Shuffle @ 40/1 1pt e/w. well behind after leading a strong pace. 400 Seebald @100/1 1pt e/w. 9th looked past it. 520 Royals Darling @ 6/1 1pt e/w. Out of the places 520 Gardesse @ 33/1 1pt e/w. 4th so very good result + 91/4 pts total of 14pts staked and a Start Bank of 100pts. Lets see how ZEE germans do against the best. Numen:gimme After day 1 Bank stands at 14 staked & 11 3/4 pts returned so down 2 1/4 pts. Total Bank 97.75pts. Day 2 i will post later