AFL NAB Cup - Semi Finals

[Ashtee]

Event	Adelaide v Melbourne
Selection	Melbourne
Strength	7/10
Date	10/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Centrebet @ 3.40 (Back)
Reasoning	A very attractive price indeed! Adelaide are on a 6 x 6-day and despite a light week on the track, it is a concern. Melbourne survived a danger game against Brisbane off the draining Darwin win and now the maximum rest factor works in their favour here. We should see a livelier competitor this week. Melbourne actually take a stronger squad than Adelaide despite both teams still missing some of their best. The likes of White and Moloney may be used sparingly but for Adelaide Goodwin is in some doubt and Clarke (if he plays) and one or two others will be underdone. So I’m still having trouble finding why Adelaide should be so clearly favoured. They did finish with only two on the bench last week but Hawthorn could easily have nailed them if their inexperienced forwards took their chances. They do have the home advantage and I make them just the 4/5 favourite. Should be around +20 h’cap available, which looks comfortable but I’m a player of the long term leverage that backing SU dogs can provide.

Event	Geelong v Fremantle
Selection	Fremantle
Strength	10/10
Date	11/03/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.31 (Back)
Reasoning	Thanks very much! Fremantle played in hot local conditions just six days ago. Also, despite arriving in Melbourne two days ahead of Saturday night’s semi final they won’t be allowed a training run at the venue. Of course it’s not impossible they could cut their best players for the final squad but that’s about where the good news ends for Geelong. The Fremantle squad is about 20% stronger in quality. They are forward in condition and it’s apparent keen to do well in this tournament. Their early arrival gives them plenty opportunity to train and acclimatise to local conditions. Geelong played seven days ago in extremely tough conditions in Cairnes, which I think places Fremantle at no disadvantage comparatively. Kingsley, Ottens, S. Johnson, Playfair not there and it shouldn’t be too difficult to keep quiet what is left of their forward structure. Geelong were ‘jumped’ early by a weakened Kangaroos but it should also be noted that Fremantle were caught a little lazy last week, as can happen coming off a dominant derby victory. That out of the way I’d expect they’ll be on song this time. Fremantle look poised for a big year but the market puts its faith in the home team advantage and form from previous seasons. I’ll make this a bigger play than usual with the odds upside down IMO.

[wayniac]

Re: AFL NAB Cup - Semi Finals Urgh! I like both your picks, was just about to post the same damn plays (but I'm going to put them in a double). Kingsley is a huge loss for the cats, they do look a little shaky up front without him. Freo were very impressive last week and I think they are motivated to win this one (thing theyll win the whole cup myself). The Demons always match up well with Adelaide... I think this is the riskier leg of the too (oh yeah the odds kinda suggest that too ;) ) as Adelaide can exceed expectations at home (heck they finished on top last year with a mediocre squad). I'm from adelaide btw so home biases out the window! GL all