jay78 Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Hi guys, ive heard that the way forward to make money is trading on soccer games rather than just backing a team to win. Over the last four weekends i have used a method of trading on in-play games on betfair and have been quite sucessful so far. Does anybody bet in this manner and what are your ideas as to a good method. I will share mine in the near future. Maybe even today, just want some input as we are all here to beat the damn bookie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikola Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. I usually back overs of which I'm pretty sure will happen. If I see a good price for the correct score of for example 2-0 I take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay78 Posted March 7, 2006 Author Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Thanks for the input. Im thinking more along the lines of backing a outcome and laying off during play for a guranteed profit. I have my own method but im hoping for some help from sucessful traders. Not many about i know but i thought this was the best forum to post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikola Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. I've also been interested in this lately so I hope we get some info :hope . Good idea for a thread :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay78 Posted March 7, 2006 Author Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Thanks Nick, but we got no takers as yet :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Enter "trading" under the Search button above forst of all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Hmmmm... ok Find a game where under 2.5 goals is highly likely and clear favourite of the two outcomes. Check that both teams are poor at scoring goals and are relatively ok defensively. Lump on -2.5 goals before kick off. Trade off after 5-10mins to secure a profit. Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. A good system, Danny, with unders trades more often easier to predict than overs, though both markets offer profit potential. Around 75% of my trading used to be spread betting, in running, with less than 5% fixed odds, but I now place at least 90% of my trades in running on the exchanges, usually Betfair, which has greater fluidity than BetDaq. One method is to lay the draw result, prematch, if an early goal is expected, or wait until the lay price is down from, say, 3.5 to 2.95 or less. The first match goal to be scored occurs, on average, between the 36th and 39th minutes. I prefer to trade my first 'lay the draw' bet between the 20th to 28th minutes, there is no hard and fast rule.....that's the whole idea of watching the match at the same time as you trade. Having laid the draw, when the first goal is scored, the 'back the draw' odds will increase, and steady at around, hopefully, up to 4.0 or more. (This trade is also possible in spread betting, by selling total goals pre-match, which is when you will get the best price, waiting 20 minutes, or so, hoping for no goals to be scored, and then trading out after 20-25 minutes of play.) With the odds greater than when you began,this is your opportunity to close the trade for a profit, or risk sitting tight, as the odds, rise as the game progresses, ..... unless ther is an equaliser....in which case you could be facing a trading loss, unless a third goal is scored. Remember, 'lay low' and then 'back high'. Exchange Trading in running is not for the faint hearted. You are basically betting on your ability to correctly judge the likelihood of a future event, and if, or how soon it is likely to happen, in order to obtain the most beneficial price. More general info, and a specific system illustration at: www.inside-edge-mag.co.uk/football/masterclass/106/betting-inrunning.html Good luck....any sensible questions, or for a discussion of your systems that you favour, post here. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Decide on your bet size and stick with it. There's a big temptation to go in heavier than normal on in-running bets because the intention is not to leave the bet open but to trade back out of it later. My advice regardless of what market you are playing is; if you go in "heavy" get out very quick. I got caught out by backing Barca Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Welcome Rafa - you talk a lot of sense :welcome Your story reminds me of the time I similarly bet on under 2.5 goals in a Barcelona match. It was 0-0 at HT and I should've got out then, but I got greedy and let the bet run. There was a goal straight after HT and even then I could've traded out. Messi came on and bagged two goals in the last ten mins. :wall I was not happy with myself. On every under 2.5 game I've done since, I've always covered at HT if 0-0. Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristolCityNut Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. There's definitely money to be made trading price discrepancies on Betfair in the days leading upto a particular match. Look for prices that are too high or too low in comparison with the bookmakers' prices. Use oddschecker for this, and combine it with Betfair's charting history to identify overbought and oversold points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dai Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Hi, I have a question. In the Liverpool/Arsenal game now, before the match I layed the "Over 2.5 goals" at 2.52. Its now at 2.64. I can now close this and make money, right? Where do I do this on the betfair site? Cant see the option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dai Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Anyone help? Am I even right in my logic there? Gutted, because I wanted to get rid of the overs bet at HT, because I knew it looked like going over. Can you even do this when you have layed a bet, or is it only when you back something, then the odds decrease, then you can lay it off for a profit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porta Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Another in running trade which I find good is look for a match where the odds are close.I.e Arsenal V Liverpool yesterday,Lay the team you dont think will win (lfc) and the draw for the same amount.Arsenal scored there odds dropped to 1.36 lay them for slightly more than your biggest liability and you get a nice green screen. Also did this with Blackburn V Villa Saturday night and if Villa had put 1 of them early chances away I would of been screwed so it does go wrong from time to time but so far this season I am in big profit from this method. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brael Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Hi' date=' I have a question. In the Liverpool/Arsenal game now, before the match I layed the "Over 2.5 goals" at 2.52. Its now at 2.64. I can now close this and make money, right? Where do I do this on the betfair site? Cant see the option.[/quote'] Bit late for this reply but it's worth noting for future reference that it's just a matter of backing the option you layed when the price moves in the direction you want it to. Once the back bet is filled you'll be left in profit. As clear as mud!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dai Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Ah. Cheers for that. How much do you have to stake on the back bet to make sure you'd get profit? Cant work that one out. Cheers for the help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Ah. Cheers for that. How much do you have to stake on the back bet to make sure you'd get profit? Cant work that one out. Cheers for the help. Download the 'Hedge Calculator' at http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=25625 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brael Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Ah. Cheers for that. How much do you have to stake on the back bet to make sure you'd get profit? Cant work that one out. Cheers for the help. If you back with the same stake amount you layed at then you'll be left with a profit on the option you layed but with no loss or gain on any other options in the chosen market. To make a profit on all options you'd need to use a hedge calculator to work out how much to stake. The other option would be to use a 'bot' such as Bet Angel to 'green up' once you have achieved a profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dai Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: Trading on soccer games. Cheers for the help guys, much appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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