Italy Over 2.5 Goals

[davidc]

Re: Italy Over 2.5 Goals We need average odds of better than 2.0 and this means taking odds of 1.5 or 3.0 or whatever the bookies best prices are for each game and these will hopefully give average odds (over the long term) which will keep the system in profit. Odds for the last 2 weeks have been a little bit lower than for earlier in the season and I'm not sure if this because of the matches that are being played (i.e. team at the top plays team at the bottom = chance of more goals) or if it is a reflection of 'end of the season' syndrome where teams may tend to concede more goals. The odds that I quote from the exchanges already have commission deducted.

[Betfairbetting]

Re: Italy Over 2.5 Goals OK but then I think you should keep stats about your average odds and I can't see such thing here:)

[gatonegro]

Re: Italy Over 2.5 Goals You have a point,bfb, but only because you are starting to conceed that David's intuition is interesting. To start, and to make it understandable I think this was the only way, though. The edge is so small that you have to relay on the average error of the bookie (I call it error but bookies have to quote results that they know will lose them money for various reason...) after a string of results you can start not including some extreme bets (too risky or not paid enough...) or, as I happen to believe, the other way round... or include in your sistem some individual team statistics... (pick your own) but you have to start someware! By the way, I think we will see David sistem pick up in the last two games in serie A... I am backing a few overs myself before the end of the season.

[davidc]

Re: Italy Over 2.5 Goals The odds this week are again a lot lower than earlier in the season but with only 2 weeks to go I am going to place the bets anyway. A refinement to the system (which I may include for next season) may be to not place any bets in a week when the average odds fall below a certain level e.g. 1.80, which is roughly equal to 10% below break even over the long term. Bets for this weekend: Livorno v Sampdoria 1.8 Betdaq Messina v Empoli 1.91 Pinnacle Inter Milan v Siena 1.69 Betfair Udinese v Cagliari 1.73 Betfair Ascoli v Lazio 1.72 Betdaq Lecce v Chievo 1.76 Betdaq Juventus Turin v Palermo 1.62 Betdaq Roma v Treviso 1.6 Expekt Fiorentina v Reggina 1,55 Expekt Parma v AC Milan 1.68 Betdaq

[davidmphill]

Re: Italy Over 2.5 Goals Very bizarre that all the games are less than Evens! Maybe the bookies have cottoned on David and seen your thread! Good luck.

[Betfairbetting]

Re: Italy Over 2.5 Goals Yes, these odds were idiotic and many smart people won money by betting on Under in Serie A, which was an Under league, is an Under league and will be an Under league.

[davidc]

Re: Italy Over 2.5 Goals Results from last weekend: Livorno v Sampdoria 1.8 Betdaq LOST Messina v Empoli 1.91 Pinnacle WON Inter Milan v Siena 1.69 Betfair LOST Udinese v Cagliari 1.73 Betfair LOST Ascoli v Lazio 1.72 Betdaq WON Lecce v Chievo 1.76 Betdaq LOST Juventus Turin v Palermo 1.62 Betdaq WON Roma v Treviso 1.6 Expekt LOST Fiorentina v Reggina 1,55 Expekt WON Parma v AC Milan 1.68 Betdaq WON Updated stats after the above results: Starting bank 1000 Current bank 1034 Total staked 960 Number of bets 96 Winning bets 50 Losing bets 46 Strike rate 52.1% Profit/Loss 74.00 Yield 7.71% The odds were indeed bizarre for last weekend in that there were at least 3 good looking under bets, (notably Livorno v Sampdoria which I had a fair size bet on @ 2.15) yet every book had the over as odds on for every game. The stats still leave me with hope for next season as the average for the last 6 seasons (including this season) for overs is 49.78%, with this season average at 49.46%. So Italy may be perceived as an under league but it seems that the bookies have sussed the fact that the stats don't agree - hopefully they will revert to type at the start of next season and the odds can be in our favour for this system. The final weekends bets to follow.

[davidc]

Re: Italy Over 2.5 Goals Final weekends bets and odds: Treviso v Udinese 1.68 @ Expekt Reggina v Juventus 1.72 @ Betfair AC Milan v Roma 1.62 @ Betfair Chievo v Fiorentina 1.68 @ Betfair Palermo v Messina 1.63 @ Unibet Sampdoria v Lecce 1.72 @ Betfair Lazio v Parma 1.6 @ Unibet Siena v Livorno 1.72 @ Unibet Empoli v Ascoli 1.65 @ Gamebookers Cagliari v Inter Milan 1.7 @ Pinnacle Once again the odds are pretty terrible and I thought of not beting as todays average odds are 1.67 but as its the last weekend I'll give it a go!!:hope

[davidc]

Re: Italy Over 2.5 Goals Forgot to update the final weeks results and season end stats, so here they are: Treviso v Udinese 1.68 @ Expekt WON Reggina v Juventus 1.72 @ Betfair LOST AC Milan v Roma 1.62 @ Betfair WON Chievo v Fiorentina 1.68 @ Betfair LOST Palermo v Messina 1.63 @ Unibet LOST Sampdoria v Lecce 1.72 @ Betfair WON Lazio v Parma 1.6 @ Unibet LOST Siena v Livorno 1.72 @ Unibet LOST Empoli v Ascoli 1.65 @ Gamebookers WON Cagliari v Inter Milan 1.7 @ Pinnacle WON Final stats: Starting bank 1000 Current bank 1057.70 Total staked 1060 Number of bets 106 Winning bets 55 Losing bets 51 Strike rate 51.9% Profit/Loss 57.70 Yield 5.44% So the system managed to stay in profit despite a strange dip in the odds over the last few weeks of the season, perhaps due to a blip or possibly attributable to 'end of season syndrome'. It will be interesting to see if the prices can be maintained above the required average odds over a full season, instead of over roughly 1/4 of this season. It mihgt be an idea to introduce a 'no bet week' in any week that the average odds fall below a preset level, which I would envisage would be set at around 1.9 - 1.95. I'll be back at the start of next season with high hopes!

[davidmphill]

Re: Italy Over 2.5 Goals Looks promising ahead of next season. It'll be very interesting to see how it runs over the duration of a full season. Cheers for your efforts David.:ok