Are short prices best????!!!!

[cavello]

Just checked my betting record on sports-punter. The reasons I done so badly is basically down to short price bets. Of 8 bets at <4/6 - 6 have lost. Yet another tonight Partick. Just hope this is a blip. The preceived wisedom is in the context of soccer betting that shorter prices are better, but I wonder how difficult it is to find value.

[aliando]

Re: Are short prices best????!!!! some would say it was the picks that can be the problem, not the odds :tongue2 most of my profit is from short odds rather than > 2.00

[BillyHills]

Re: Are short prices best????!!!! Cavelloman, where abouts in Leicester are you from mate? I suppose in answer to your question if you back mainly odds on your strike rate has got to be that much better, i know its obvious but a bad spell can take ages to claw back, we all have them. Good thing about Sports Punter is the records dont lie and its good to analyse the type of bets that let you down. Treat each month on its own merits, forget last month, clear your mind and start again, sometimes you can get paranoid about past results and it can cause you to miss winners. Cheers BH

[zonker84]

Re: Are short prices best????!!!! As everyone knows, betting is all about backing prices that imply a probability of success larger than the one you yourself estimate. Personally, probably 90% of my bets are on favourites and I do OK. There are sometimes "bad favourites" I suppose, and it's just a case of avoiding them. Equally, I know some people who bet on horses and never taken anything less than 5/1 and they do well too. There are an infinate amount of ways to approach betting, just do whatever works I suppose :)

[cavello]

Re: Are short prices best????!!!! Yes you are right about missing winners . After last Saturdays bad results in France and Germany. I lost confidence and did not put up or backTreviso, Roma, Nice or Lille which were clearly indicated to be valued by me on the Punterslounge by my statistical methods. Result 3 winners @9/2,9/4 and 2/1 missed.

[PAULM03]

Re: Are short prices best????!!!! moved this to S&S:ok

[slapdash]

Re: Are short prices best????!!!! There's no definitive answer, of course. Some people will be better at finding value in short prices, and some in long prices. I have a theory that most people are better at spotting value at odds around evens. I think we have a better intuitive grasp of when something is likely to happen "more often than not" than of when it will happen 80% or 20% of the time.

[cavello]

Re: Are short prices best????!!!! That what I believe, even more so with racing. It is easier to say assess a 4/1 chane to have a true price of say 3/1 then to asess a 1/3 to have a true price of 1/4. Having said that, the hot favourite method does work with the extremely short price soccer bets of

[THE % MAN]

Re: Are short prices best????!!!! Hi cavelloman For the novice hurdles if you followed the following jockeys you would not go far wrong DOBBIN 97/39WINNERS MURPHY 69/31 LEE 66/30 R THORNTON 65/38 C LLEWELLYN 61/27 R WALSH 37/18 Don't do McCoy and you would be well in the black. As for Novice Chases if you concentrated on certain courses this could be the way forward. Hope this may of been some help. THE % MAN

[rooster]

Re: Are short prices best????!!!! Cavelloman I think with the odds on shots especially you must be extra careful because the value is against you. In my betting I tend to back a lot of short priced horses. In february I had 12 odds on horses in my 'extra special' category and all 12 won so there is money to be made. Good luck in your betting. Rooster

[sbi]

Re: Are short prices best????!!!! hi cavelloman. i think it would be unwise to turn your back on short priced selections on the basis of half a dozen results. there are numerous pointers i have seen recently to suggest that the best value is to be found in the lower odds regions. the theory explaining the value hot favourites system for football shows how bookmakers make a progressively higher margin with higher odds selections. also you often hear how 'today was a bad day for the bookies, all the favourites won' or vice-versa. i have recently focussed my attention on backing mainly selections (football & racing) in the region of 1 - 2.5 odds. i hope by doing this, and consistently using the best odds available, my selection process would only have to overcome about a 5% margin, possibly less. There is also the key added benefit of much more stability in your funds and low risk of bankruptcy. I am happy to accept a lower yield at these lower risk levels. don't fall into thinking like a lot of people seem to that low odds must equal poor value, and that value can be found more easily in high odds selections. my current opinion is that the opposite is true.

[jakeday]

Re: Are short prices best????!!!! cavelloman, I too am in the "short-priced" fan-club. Personally I disagree slightly with slapdash, in that i think its easier to spot value at short-priced odds. Although even money is probably the second category to look at. Reasons. Take this weekend. Chelsea 1.30 - home. Won 14/15 matches(93% strike rate) Man City - away lost 9 out of 14(64%) Form Chelsea won last 3 at home. Man City lost last 3 away. Rangers vs Inverness Rangers 10/15 home wins (66%) Dunfermline 8/14 lost(57%) Form - Rangers won 2/3 at home Dunfermline lost 2/3 home Very simple statistical analysis....yet looking at the bare figures, Chelsea are far better favourites than Rangers. Yet Chelsea are 1.30 Rangers are 1.20 For me its a simple comparison. Chelsea are value, Rangers are not. If they were both 1.25 i'd still take Chelsea. If Chelsea were 1.20 and Rangers 1.50 I'd take rangers. Its easy to work out "value" at the lower end. I'd say the same with Even money home shots. If team a is "slightly" better than team b at home and you find a quote above evens thats "value". Its easier to assess and therefore easier to make money as you can get a clear understanding of "value". It gets very tricky (and for me virtually impossible) once you move away from this. Sunderland vs Blackburn. Blackburn currently at around 1.75. Is that value? Sunderland are rubbish. But Blackburn are rubbish away from home. If you gave me Blackburn at 3/1 I'd know it was value..... but should the true odds be 1.5 / 1.75 / 2 ? I can't really say, and so i can't assess value. Aston Villa vs Fulham - Fulham 4.00 Are Fulham value at 3/1? Record away from home this year is 0-3-13. Personally I think that 3/1 therefore is NOT value and I'll probably lay fulham in this game. However its still a tricky call as I can't really price them up accurately (like i can with short-odds). Maybe true odds in my opinion would be 6/1. So therefore I'm a layer at 3/1. Hope this makes sense, but if you want me to elaborate on any point, just ask. BTW I keep an accurate record of my selections too..... my short-priced selections have currently won 27 of the last 28 games (i'm on a 20-run winning streak), so it is possible to make some good money from this (all selections under 1.40). (Although earlier in the season I was a bit lax-and didn't look properly at the value, so i'm only now clearing a reasonable profit. Good luck

[Clotty]

Re: Are short prices best????!!!! Great post Jake! I too, am a fan of short prices, and would estimate that 99% of my bets range in between 1.2 to 2.5. The thing with short prices is that, possibly 75% of the time you don't actually find value, you can still get away with it because the games are so one-sided anyway.

[Kanga]

Re: Are short prices best????!!!! Value is the answer to small price bets - look at the hot favourites thread the profit is all made in the difference between average price and the price actually achieved - it's amazing just how accurate bookies are at calculating prices to probability at shorter prices.