sbi Posted March 12, 2006 Author Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system jtw1 - nice to hear from you. 2 out of 2 for the matches both of us have come up with (nancy & nantes). not too fussed for the feedback just want to proof the system. unlike my other current thread (lay long ditance travellers - which had a good day today) i've done a lot of back testing on this one so i know it's a goodun :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 13, 2006 Author Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system 13-Mar belenenses 1.61 1.5795 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 14, 2006 Author Share Posted March 14, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system 2-0 :cheers Total staked 25 Total returned 31.49 Yield 26.0% Winners 19 Losers 6 Strike Rate 76% Current bank 106.49 Profit/Loss 6.49 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 14, 2006 Share Posted March 14, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system You got the mojo working for this SBI :clap are you backing or laying with this method ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 14, 2006 Author Share Posted March 14, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system backing all these to be under 2.5 mate. the way the system operates, now is the best time to follow - reliable season trends but before the end when things can go a bit all over the place with football (although i think under 2.5 goals should be fairly robust to end of season oddness). the systems are finding 'value' unders rather than just matches most likely to be unders so with that in mind the strike rate has been very pleasing, and some highish odds have helped the yield. i've shown level stakes yield to keep things simple but for actual betting i think you could do very well with a 5% staking plan to grow things more quickly. hopefully it'll continue...:hope the season data suggests a 15-20% return. from now on i might do more hunting for the best odds (using oddschecker or similar) to really push up the yield. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 15, 2006 Share Posted March 15, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system .... for an Unders system SBI these figures are extremely good and a great strike rate 19W-6L ! Keep up the good work, I'll be popping in to see how thing go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 16, 2006 Author Share Posted March 16, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system thanks ppl :ok here's one for thursday (germany 2) 16-Mar unterhaching 1.84 1.798 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 16, 2006 Share Posted March 16, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system Hi SBI - I've just trawled through a lengthy calculation to see if backing the 6 winning scores would prove better value :- 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, 0-2 and it doesnt :loon the odds work out to be 1.75 to your 1.798 No idea why that should be but does is in tonights match ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 16, 2006 Author Share Posted March 16, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system hi kanga feel free to do that for every one :lol i doubt it'll often come out better though, especially in the 'minor' euro leagues where there's less liquidity. i think the selection is 1.4 @ pointbet but i dont have an account there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 16, 2006 Author Share Posted March 16, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system 1-0 :nana Total staked 26 Total returned 33.29 Yield 28.0% Winners 20 Losers 6 Strike Rate 76% Current bank 107.29 Profit/Loss 7.29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 16, 2006 Author Share Posted March 16, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system by the way kanga sorry i meant 1.84 in the post above (with no commission, which would have improved returns a bit). one selection for Friday: Naval @ 1.60 (gamebookers) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 16, 2006 Share Posted March 16, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system .... another great win there Sbi and again a great set of figures. Unfortunately had a prior appointment and was unable to get the bet on in time, to see that the score was 1-0 and my coffers empty.Will attempt to look and act earlier in future I promise.Cheers fella.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ardman123 Posted March 16, 2006 Share Posted March 16, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system It all seems to be going right at the moment for you with these unders hope it continues. I will look forward to hearing your future tips. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system hi all, thanks for the posts. i've made a few changes to the results / method (this is the staking method i actually use and results i have kept, it's annoying change to level stakes etc for the purpose of posting): i) eliminate februaury results - as you can see from the post around the end of the month, i added a new major element to the system (considering team performance rather than just league info) so it is effectively a new system and these results arent relevant. [strike rate was 8/11 before this so im not doing it to get rid of bad results] ii) switch to a 5% of bank staking plan - this is what i use and is a more effective way of growing funds long term (as long as the system is successful). new stake to be sdetermined at the start of each day. Total staked 86.72 Total returned 116.32 Yield 34.1% Winners 13 Losers 3 Strike Rate 81% Current bank 129.60 Profit/Loss 29.60 date home team odds bookie net comm. stake result win / lose bank returns 100 03-Mar laval 1.44 bf 1.418 5.00 1-1 w 102.09 7.09 03-Mar bochum 2.14 bf 2.083 5.00 0-1 w 107.51 10.42 03-Mar burghausen 1.83 bf 1.7885 5.00 1-3 l 102.51 04-Mar hannover (bet365) 1.75 365 1.75 5.13 1-2 l 97.38 04-Mar nice (bet 365) 1.5 365 1.5 5.13 0-0 w 99.94 7.69 04-Mar toulouse (bet 365) 1.47 365 1.47 5.13 1-1 w 102.35 7.53 07-Mar metz 1.49 bf 1.4655 5.12 0-0 w 104.73 7.50 11-Mar halifax 1.75 gb 1.75 5.24 2-0 w 108.66 9.16 11-Mar nottingham forest 1.85 gb 1.85 5.24 1-1 w 113.11 9.69 11-Mar nancy 1.45 gb 1.45 5.24 1-1 w 115.47 7.59 11-Mar duisburg 1.85 365 1.85 5.24 0-0 w 119.92 9.69 12-Mar dresden 1.75 gb 1.75 6.00 1-0 w 124.42 10.49 12-Mar strasbourg 1.45 gb 1.45 6.00 1-2 l 118.42 12-Mar nantes 1.45 gb 1.45 6.00 1-1 w 121.12 8.69 13-Mar braga 1.61 bf 1.5795 6.06 2-0 w 124.63 9.57 16-Mar unterhaching 1.84 bf 1.798 6.23 1-0 w 129.60 11.20 a reminder of tonight's selection: 17-Mar naval 1.6 gb 1.6 6.48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system saturday's picks - baw stands for betandwin.com. the wolfsburg odds are from BetDaq (not Betfair). If the naval match ends under, stake will be 6.67 pts on each. if over, these will be 6.16 pts (5% of bank staking plan). 18-Mar nice 1.49 bf 1.47 18-Mar sochaux 1.7 baw 1.7 18-Mar toulouse 1.5 baw 1.5 18-Mar troyes 1.5 baw 1.5 18-Mar nurnberg 2.3 baw 2.3 18-Mar wolfsburg 1.89 bf 1.8455 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system tonight's selection down the drain after half an hour :cry i had a bad feeling about that one for some reason (nothing to do with the stats and i know nothing about the teams, just one of those :unsure hopefully tomorrow will bring more joy :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 19, 2006 Author Share Posted March 19, 2006 Re: Under 2.5 goals system not a particularly good weekend, has taken the overally figures to a little below where i would expect them to be long term. Total staked 136.28 Total returned 155.17 Yield 13.9% Winners 17 Losers 7 Strike Rate 71% Current bank 118.89 Profit/Loss 18.89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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