struxo Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 Hi, this is my first post here.Last two months i tested betting on double chance "12". I had 78% and odds was 1,30. My problem is MM. Is there any MM which is good for low odds. Any suggestion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 Re: Low odds system :welcome to Punters Lounge, struxo. I assume by MM you mean Money Management? The figures you give (78% strike rate at average odds of 1.30) work out as an average return of 1.014 of your stake, or a yield of 1.4%. IF you were confident that that yield would continue, then at these low odds your betting bank would grow fastest if you staked about 4.5% of your current bank on each bet. Though it would grow quite slowly at that yield. It would take on average more than 2000 bets to double your bank. The problem is that with that small a yield it will take a long time to be confident that the method will show a profit in the long run. For example, if you tested it over 100 bets and got a 78% yield, then just having one extra loser would have virtually wiped out your profit. Sorry if I'm sounding negative, but my advice would be to try to refine the method first to increase the yield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
struxo Posted February 14, 2006 Author Share Posted February 14, 2006 Re: Low odds system Thanx for fast reply. I know that low odds don't give to much but i trust in my striking rate.I tryed modified Tony Stoffo's "Monthly income system" but that didn't give to much. I must find something else.Maybe to play double,that gives 1,69 odds. Back to drawing board:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 Re: Low odds system Unfortunately putting them in doubles won't help. It will increase the odds, yes, but the decrease in strike rate will outweigh that. In doubles, the percentage of your current bank to bet that will make the bank grow fastest is about 4% (using the odds and strike rate you gave) and it would take about 1100 doubles (or 2200 individual bets) to double your bank, compared with a little over 2000 singles betting 4.5% of your current bank each time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K'Ching Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 Re: Low odds system ...your betting bank would grow fastest if you staked about 4.5% of your current bank on each bet. How did you come up with that number? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 Re: Low odds system If you have a yield of x% at (decimal) odds of N, then if you bet x%/(N-1) of your current bank on each bet, this maximizes the rate of growth of your bank (this is the Kelly formula). For example, if you have a 50% strike rate on bets with odds of 3.00, then your yield is 50% and this gives a "best" bet size of 50%/(3-1) = 25% of your bank. If you bet that much, half the time you will win 50% of your bank, so multiply your bank by 1.5 and half the time you will lose 25% of your bank and so multiply your bank by 0.75. So every two bets, with average luck, you will multiply your bank by 1.5 times 0.75, or 1.125. If you bet less, say 20%, then a win will multiply your bank by 1.4 and a loss by 0.8, so every two bets, with average luck, you multiply your bank by 1.4 times 0.8, or 1.12. If you bet more, say 30%, then a win will multiply your bank by 1.6 and a loss by 0.7, so every two bets, with average luck, you multiply your bank by 1.6 times 0.7, or 1.12. Struxo gave a yield of 1.4% at odds of 1.30, so the formula gives a "best" bet of 1.4%/0.3 = 4.667% of the current bank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 14, 2006 Share Posted February 14, 2006 Re: Low odds system For example, if you have a 50% strike rate on bets with odds of 3.00, By the way, in case anybody was wondering if I could get a strike rate of 50% on bets with odds of 3.00, then no, I can't. It was just an example. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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